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2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

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The Conditional said:
Fury Road is my pick for this. By Stowaway who sired Monkfish and was sent off fav for the Stayers last year. Return to 3m will help and think if he brings his Leopardstown form he will be a player. French Breds have a terrible record in this race, so am against BMG and L'Homme Presse at the prices. Even Long Run lost this race as a French bred, so good horses can just tend to jump a bit extravagantly.
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If the right fury road turns up he’s got a right chance. Only start over 3m fences = grade 1 win.
 
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darlojim said:
Capodanno at 8s is a cracking EW bet for me. 2 runs ago finishes 4 3/4 Lengths behind Bob. Would you be confident on any of the ones above would get closer :indecisiveness:I wouldnt..
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Yep 100% agree, best form in the race for me and although his jumping is a question there’s holes in most of these. L’Homme is probably a bet also if he goes 4/1-9/2 tomorrow/Wednesday.
 
ground be quick enough for him but given what stattler done today farouk dalene might be a bit big at 18s for this. Beacon edge on a line through the latter too and he shouldn’t mind the quicker ground.
 
ToniC said:
ground be quick enough for him but given what stattler done today farouk dalene might be a bit big at 18s for this. Beacon edge on a line through the latter too and he shouldn’t mind the quicker ground.
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Yep my thoughts when going through it. Beacon Edge is a good each way play with some offering 4 places. Proven around Cheltenham as well
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DenmanSacre said:
Yep my thoughts when going through it. Beacon Edge is a good each way play with some offering 4 places. Proven around Cheltenham as well
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Yep Gabynako given him a little boost today too.

like a Sunday afternoon staying handicap Chase with all the maroon and white in here tomorrow, could make a case for any of the 3 to run well wouldn’t surprise me if one did
 
I prefer Bravemansgame to L'Homme Presse given his form over the distance though both are excellent solid jumpers. Ahoy Senor jumped better at Wetherby than Kempton but it's still a cause for concern. As an e/w Farouk d'Alene's form line has been boosted by Stattler and we know he stays the trip ok

Selections: Bravemansgame
e/w Farouk d'Alene
other: Ahoy Senor

Rethink with BMG out: and the new prices
Beacon Edge, Faroiuk and e/w Threeunderthrufive
 
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Really struggling with this race

- If the going remained good, good to soft (unlikely with this rain and potentially watering), I would have to back Bravesmansgame - he'll outpace these and outjump them
- Ahoy Senor worries me with his jumping, plus I think he wants a proper 3 mile staying race, soft ground. Use his engine to wear them down.
- I dont fancy the Irish lot, but will take another look in the morning
 
opatcho said:
Really struggling with this race

- If the going remained good, good to soft (unlikely with this rain and potentially watering), I would have to back Bravesmansgame - he'll outpace these and outjump them
- Ahoy Senor worries me with his jumping, plus I think he wants a proper 3 mile staying race, soft ground. Use his engine to wear them down.
- I dont fancy the Irish lot, but will take another look in the morning
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Yeah, I feel it's become a lot more difficult in recent weeks now GDC is going for the Turners and L'Homme Presse has decided to come here.

I've got my preferred result, but I'm no where near confident, such is the field now.
 
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At the risk of sounding like a broken record, French breds are 0/36 here. Imo BMG and LHP have to be taken on
 
robith said:
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, French breds are 0/36 here. Imo BMG and LHP have to be taken on
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Stats are made to be broken

And looking at tomorrow's field theres a good chance it will be with 5 French breds in the field including 3 of the top 4 in the betting

I guarantee if I backed purely on that stat this would be the year that 0 became a 1

Is there an actual logical reason for French breds not winning? Do they not stay? Do they not jump well?
 
Allaho came close, but ran in AB so was campaigned over staying trip (Soft)
Delta work came close, he's jumping wasnt great that day (Soft)
Black Corton beaten, Al Boum Photo likely to have been beaten (Soft), but went onto winning Gold Cup
Whisper came close, with Might Bites help (Good-Soft)
Smad Palace was beaten by a nk. (Good)

They're come close to breaking this stat. I would assume the gritty nature of the RSA on soft/testing ground would contribute towards this, I wonder if this is the same with the AB at that age. ??

I think it would make sense that French horses might get closer on better ground
 
Is 3/1 about BMG a bit of a gift? I was expecting him W/O he who shall not be named to be even money.
 
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charlie said:
Is 3/1 about BMG a bit of a gift? I was expecting him W/O he who shall not be named to be even money.
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You would image it is.... feels like a Might Bite year where there isnt really anything to challenge a horse that has speed over what should be quick'ish ground still
.... but why am I so hesitate? :chargrined:
 
charlie said:
Is 3/1 about BMG a bit of a gift? I was expecting him W/O he who shall not be named to be even money.
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People seem to have huge doubts about him getting up the hill

Think he has a cracking chance myself, just seems a better horse this year
 
Anyone know if there's a UK vs Ireland market in this race?
 
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