• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

2021 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 4957
  • Start date Start date
It really has been slow to catch fire this year..it started off a bit paifully in november when mullins had his novices running poorly and not much else had happened, but as it all starts to take shape now its more exciting..i just hope we get a chance to see it happen! Im looking forward to the DRF thats for sure
 
Can't see Appreciate It going anywhere but Supreme now. He'll probably run in the Chanelle Pharma at the DRF. He's been nothing short of a weapon at that track in his 3 runs to date, and I'd expect it to be business as usual for him there in that race.
 
Last edited:
charlie said:
Bravemansgame is +7 to 150
Click to expand...

That's the horse's Official Rating not the Timeform figure Charlie.

Ray.......Metier can certainly put it up to Appreciate It - no more a one horse race than the Ballymore for me.
 
Surely the official is more accurate then the timeform and what most people go on? Im certainly not arguing with you, i hope its a good race by all means! But the ballymore looks a more classy affair thats for sure
 
Ray said:
Surely the official is more accurate then the timeform and what most people go on? Im certainly not arguing with you, i hope its a good race by all means! But the ballymore looks a more classy affair thats for sure
Click to expand...

Agreed. I only used Timeform simply because I could access a figure for all 4 horses. It will be interesting to see in a few years which race proves to have been the classiest.
 
OverTheLast said:
Over the moon with that today.

The reason I found this forum was in the summer searching for news on Bob Olinger on google and this forum came up - I absolutely loved him from day 1, and this would be my first real year antepost betting to a bit of a decent stake - so Bob is currently a 200 point winner for me in the Ballymore, great when you think you've seen a real good one and it turns out to be true. I think my first post on here was about him probably (can Kev find that?!)

Like a chesire cat here, the dream lives on!
Click to expand...

Haha, since the upgrade it's harder to find original posts.... but I do remember you telling me that's why you'd found the place.

I could do with you spreading that all over twitter - when he wins of course. :tan:
 
Bob Olinger is my main play in the Ballymore, and I have some of the fancier prices that were available in the Summer, so I'm certainly a fan. However, I'm surprised that yesterday's performance has won such universal acclaim on here. Obviously winning a grade 1 so emphatically has to be encouraging, but to my eye, this was hardly a breathtaking performance.

On all known form, Blue Lord is nowhere near G1 class. He was pulling Townend's arms out the whole way round, and yet he's still finished second. In a grade 1. The form is just awful and in many respects I'm very disappointed that Bob Olinger didn't win easier than he did. His turn of foot was, to my eye, not electric, and once he got clear, he didn't really extend his advantage further. Whilst Rachel didn't give him the kitchen sink, she didn't really ease him down either.

I would absolutely love Bobby O to be a superstar. He may yet prove to be. But in my view, yesterday's race told us very little and I think the significant price cut is wholly unwarranted.
 
Easywork said:
Bob Olinger is my main play in the Ballymore, and I have some of the fancier prices that were available in the Summer, so I'm certainly a fan. However, I'm surprised that yesterday's performance has won such universal acclaim on here. Obviously winning a grade 1 so emphatically has to be encouraging, but to my eye, this was hardly a breathtaking performance.

On all known form, Blue Lord is nowhere near G1 class. He was pulling Townend's arms out the whole way round, and yet he's still finished second. In a grade 1. The form is just awful and in many respects I'm very disappointed that Bob Olinger didn't win easier than he did. His turn of foot was, to my eye, not electric, and once he got clear, he didn't really extend his advantage further. Whilst Rachel didn't give him the kitchen sink, she didn't really ease him down either.

I would absolutely love Bobby O to be a superstar. He may yet prove to be. But in my view, yesterday's race told us very little and I think the significant price cut is wholly unwarranted.
Click to expand...

It was a shame Ashdale Bob crashed out early as I tend to agree I’m not sure you’d want to be hanging your coat on yesterday’s form. I also backed him in the summer and of course when you are on at a good price and they win a grade 1 in the run up to the Festival it’s hard not to get excited. But I agree with your words of caution, there’s still 9 long weeks to go and I’ll be surprised if this ends up just being the two horse shoot out many are predicting.
 
Easywork said:
Bob Olinger is my main play in the Ballymore, and I have some of the fancier prices that were available in the Summer, so I'm certainly a fan. However, I'm surprised that yesterday's performance has won such universal acclaim on here. Obviously winning a grade 1 so emphatically has to be encouraging, but to my eye, this was hardly a breathtaking performance.

On all known form, Blue Lord is nowhere near G1 class. He was pulling Townend's arms out the whole way round, and yet he's still finished second. In a grade 1. The form is just awful and in many respects I'm very disappointed that Bob Olinger didn't win easier than he did. His turn of foot was, to my eye, not electric, and once he got clear, he didn't really extend his advantage further. Whilst Rachel didn't give him the kitchen sink, she didn't really ease him down either.

I would absolutely love Bobby O to be a superstar. He may yet prove to be. But in my view, yesterday's race told us very little and I think the significant price cut is wholly unwarranted.
Click to expand...

I don't wholly disagree, as I was dead against Blue Lord, but I'll hold my hands up and say I completely got him wrong, as he still finished ahead of some fair types.

On his turn of foot, I think we'll see this to best effect on better ground, anything other than Heavy, that is. The bonus with Bob Olinger, IMO, is that he has that turn of foot, if required, but he also stays very well, so could win whichever way the race is run, it will just depend on his overall ability and whether he ends up being good enough. I'd have little excuse, as long as it isn't a bog.
 
You may not think the form is worth much, but the time was pretty good.

Timing from the first hurdle of the handicap hurdle at 3.20 and the same hurdle in the BO race, they've gone roughly 10 seconds quicker (despite racing a furlong further).

Handicap was win by 12 lengths by a horse rated 114. 10 seconds is around 40 to 45 lengths so if we assume at the minimum that the winner of the handicap hurdler has run to her rating, you are looking at a mid to high 150 figure for BO.

Like Energumene, the time figure was much better than the comparative races.

Naas has a difficult finishing straight and people said the same last year about Envoi Allen not looking impressive in winning the same race.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: nortonscoin200, Jorvik and Appreciate It
Yeh, i think we have to be careful judging horses too soon, in particular novices we are still learning about, on heavy ground.
Not easy to quicken and produce turn of foot in that sort of ground, and in the case of Blue Lord,its no wonder he could not finish the race off as well as the winner,given the ground and his pulling during the race.
Of course an if is an if, but IF Blue Lord were to settle better at Cheltenham, and the ground is decent,then he can produce a different finish to his race. Whether thats good enough is another matter, but judging for me needs to be done a bit later than now.
Anyway, ive reacted by taking nrnb for the Ballymore, Blue Lord.
 
charlie said:
Lovely story OverTheLast, that's an excellent position to be in. Have you covered Bravemansgame? He's a proper horse and by far the biggest danger at the moment to your win
Click to expand...

I need to have a good think what way to play it. I’m considering leaving it close to the day of the race where I can’t see Bob O being more than a 2/1 shot - and potentially lay him for my stakes back.
 
Quevega said:
Do you keep charts to record these price estimates ?
Click to expand...

No. I just review the non handicap races each day and tinker around with them depending on the latest news, quotes, any new form, or collateral from etc,
The prices total 100%, so for example in the Ballymore I have both Brave and Bob at 4.0 so would guess the actual SP's would be more like 11/4 joints to allow the bookmakers their margin.
I don't save the spreadsheets at the end of each day.
It can be hard not to get drawn into thinking the exchange prices/ bookmaker odds must be "about right" but it's important to try to not work off them as a starting point.

Some of the races like the Champion Hurdle have very little "slack" in them when you look at the likely field and the latest Betfair prices but other races such as the Ballymore are closer to 70% based on likely runners and current exchange prices. If you focus more of your attention on these races then it's a lot easier to come out ahead, and having your own opinion of a 100% book highlights which horses to hammer away at.
 
A very lazy comparison sees this years race ran 14 secs slower than what envoi did last year. I made the same comment on Ballyadams race and I was pointed out by many because they took about 10 seconds to get going at the start. As I say it’s a lazy comparison purely looking at the overall times. Not sure if anyone takes note of race times or sectionals and can add anything worthwhile
 
Moby123 said:
No. I just review the non handicap races each day and tinker around with them depending on the latest news, quotes, any new form, or collateral from etc,
The prices total 100%, so for example in the Ballymore I have both Brave and Bob at 4.0 so would guess the actual SP's would be more like 11/4 joints to allow the bookmakers their margin.
I don't save the spreadsheets at the end of each day.
It can be hard not to get drawn into thinking the exchange prices/ bookmaker odds must be "about right" but it's important to try to not work off them as a starting point.

Some of the races like the Champion Hurdle have very little "slack" in them when you look at the likely field and the latest Betfair prices but other races such as the Ballymore are closer to 70% based on likely runners and current exchange prices. If you focus more of your attention on these races then it's a lot easier to come out ahead, and having your own opinion of a 100% book highlights which horses to hammer away at.
Click to expand...

:encouragement:
 
DeeBee said:
A very lazy comparison sees this years race ran 14 secs slower than what envoi did last year. I made the same comment on Ballyadams race and I was pointed out by many because they took about 10 seconds to get going at the start. As I say it’s a lazy comparison purely looking at the overall times. Not sure if anyone takes note of race times or sectionals and can add anything worthwhile
Click to expand...

Probably slightly upgrades Bob's run, as the ground was significantly worse. Heavy vs Yielding (good to yielding)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom