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2019 Grand National

So we've had the second forfeit stage published. BDM still in, but if Aintree is the target, he could still go for the Bowl - IMO probably the better choice, with Anibale Fly at a big weights advantage.

BDM's possible participation remains a significant variable for GN weights and ratings, but time and tide wait for no man. So, with essentially all preps run, below are my model's top-rated 2019 GN entries, after running the slide rule over all those down to OR143 - it's unlikely the cut will come below that.

They're ranked below in order of strength of rating, but all those listed have ratings in the range inhabited by the 20 highest-rated of the 22 GN winners and near-missers (<5L) since 2005, as back-tested by my previous model. FYI, the 2 lowest-rated former winners/near-missers (both in the same race, which had only 2 runners with "winning" ratings, both of which ran well but encountered misfortune) were one notch below this range, normally considered as having "Strong Place Potential".

An important point about a model is that it is, of course, totally objective. As much as we'd like it to whittle the field down to just 4, all at tasty e/w odds, and rule out those at the head of the market, it simply tells it as it sees it - as it must if it's to be of any value over time.

As will be seen, unfortunately, this year it’s largely (though not totally) seeing things as the market is.

In the past it’s identified between 3 and 6 horses with winning profiles on the specific ground. Last year, on Heavy, it identified 7 and these turned out to include 1st, 3rd and 5th home.

However, with that many on the shortlist, sadly, instinct had to come into play, and I gave the winner the swerve and cashed out where possible on 3rd placed Bless The Wings.

The model had done a decent job but I failed to back the correct perm from its shortlist. That said, as noted, Pleasant Company was the first statistical outlier in the model to near-miss in 12 years and prompted my return to the drawing board and construction of Mark II.

I'd hoped the new model might deliver a shortlist this year that could be backed in its entirety, without the need for my picking and choosing, but that’s unlikely, especially if BDM runs. Indeed, from OR and my model's perspectives, it's shaping up to be one of the highest quality and most competitive GNs for years:

  • BDM would be the highest (uncompressed) Officially Rated GN runner (172) since Master Oats in 1997.
  • Even with 4lbs OR compression for the race, his presence would keep the absolute weights at levels that elevate the stat-ratings of several from "strong place potential" to "winning" calibre, depending on the going.
  • The model's two highest-rated runners would have “top-quartile” ratings (i.e. in the top 25% of the ratings-range of former winners and near-missers since 2005).


That said, in 2012, the old model rated a runner with the strongest GN stat-profile of any runner since 1988. Desperately sadly, that runner (Synchronised) never came home.

While the model wasn't necessarily wrong, nor is it a crystal ball. All it does is hopefully improve returns and the bottom line over time, and despite the occasional mis-translation when putting fancies on the betting slip, it's worked well down the years.

---------------------------------------

So, to business.

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With two key “known unknowns”, the ratings are in the context of four alternative scenarios. Despite having two stand-out candidates, given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune in a typical GN, but also given the number of winning calibre runners identified by the model, the winner should be one of, but could be any of, those in the relevant list. But, if it were to prove perfectly accurate, either a 45 or a 79-year old trend would be broken on 6 April. If not, maybe we'll have to settle for breaking a 68-year old one – for the Ladies!).

Odds are current best price for NRNB 5 places (1/4 or 1/5 odds) - some of these may not line up of course:

A. BDM scratched / GS or better:

#1 Ramses De Teillee (33/1), Tiger Roll (9/2)

#3 General Principle (33/1), Anibale Fly (12/1), Abolitionist (33/1), Vintage Clouds (14/1)


B. BDM scratched / Softer than GS:

#1 Ramses De Teillee, Tiger Roll

#3 General Principle, Ms Parfois (25/1), Anibale Fly

#6 Abolitionist, Rathvinden (12/1), Pleasant Company (33/1), Folsom Blue (40/1)


C. BDM runs / GS or better:

#1 Ramses De Teillee, Tiger Roll

#3 Anibale Fly

#4 General Principle, Abolitionist, Vintage Clouds, Rathvinden, Pleasant Company


D. BDM runs / Softer than GS:

#1 Ramses De Teillee, Tiger Roll

#3 Anibale Fly

#4 General Principle, Ms Parfois, Pleasant Company, Rathvinden

#8 Abolitionist, Folsom Blue


A notch below the aforementioned horses in the ratings are those who could run a huge race (depending on weight and underhoof conditions), but are considered Place Potential at best: Yala Enki (if softer than GS, 66/1), Mall Dini (25/1), Walk In The Mill (33/1).


How does this, therefore, translate to the betting slip? (TBC)
 
Decisions, decisions!!

At the e/w prices (and accepting that we may just have to cheer on Tiger Roll as winner without each way shillings aboard), the betting slip will include:

  • Ramses De Teillee (already backed, 33/1)
  • General Principle (already backed, 25/1)
  • Ms Parfois (if softer than GS)
  • Vintage Clouds (if GS or better)
  • and another TBD - maybe a reload on Abolitionist

But why Ms Parfois (if softer than GS) and Vintage Clouds (if GS or better) and why prefer them to Anibale Fly, who’s higher-rated if BDM runs and the same if he doesn't, regardless of going?

Last question first. On paper, Anibale Fly’s held (comfortably) at the weights by Tiger Roll and, at the prices, I’d rather look down the card to lightly-weighted GN debutants whose profiles look tailor-made for the race, given their ground.

MS PARFOIS

  • Tough mare with abundant stamina – close 2nd to Rathvinden in the 4m Novice Chase at the Festival last year on testing ground. They re-oppose on near-identical terms.
  • But Ms P has proven it over further still when a not-stopping 2nd (3L) with 11.04 in Saturday’s Midlands National over 34f - the longest trip in the calendar bar the Big One – on Heavy.
  • It may be said that the GN comes too soon, just 21 days after such a tough race, but her sequence of runs last year read 3111222 (the last six on Soft) and came at an average 24-day gap, with just five days between 2 of the wins. She tends to take her races well but, in any event, has had a much lighter campaign this season – 2 runs. First of the season was a disappointing 6th in the Hennessy in December, after noticeably sweating up prior to the race, but she did likewise on debut the previous season. Handled the hullabaloo of Cheltenham and the GN meeting last season well enough, and won't be "fresh".
  • She’ll be 7lbs well-in as a result of her Midlands National run and will carry a very appealing 10.02 (or 10.06 if BDM is scratched). There are not many, still in the early stages of their chasing career, that line up in a GN with such a low absolute weight and that have Grade 1 form - close 2nd in the 25f Novice Chase at last year's GN meeting, 4 weeks after the Festival.
  • Made frame in 78% of chases (5 wins/near-misses in 8 at 3m+).
  • Never faced the GN fences but 100% completions to date in 15 runs over obstacles
  • Would want meaningful cut (GS[Soft] or softer) for her best chance and might conceivably not run if ground is too quick.
  • No mare has won the GN since Nickel Coin in 1951 but harder for them these days to make the GN line-up. Prior to weights’ compression, Auntie Dot (1991), Ebony Jane (1994, 5 days after placing in the Irish GN) and Dubacilla (1995) all made the first 4 in the GN.
  • Races prominently – should minimise traffic problems.

VINTAGE CLOUDS

  • From GN-winning yard (Sue Smith), VC was very unfortunate to miss lining up last year, though maybe conditions wouldn’t have best suited him.
  • Needs five to come out to make the cut this time - should be OK, but bear in mind Elliot intends to run a cavalry division. If VC lines up, he’ll be 5lbs well-in after his staying-on close 2nd in the Ultima Chase at The Festival – significantly, his first run after a wind op.
  • He’ll carry just 10.00 (in the handicap) or 10.04 if BDM comes out.
  • His major stat-plus on form is identical to that of his stable’s GN winner (Auroras Encore) – a near-miss (4L 3rd) in the Scottish GN a year ago - like AE’s, run at a relentless gallop and clocking a fast time on Good ground. Though VC certainly has decent form on Soft, he seems to jump with more fluency on a sounder surface.
  • His stamina was evident in his dogged, staying-on 16.5L 4th with 11.01 in the 2017 Welsh GN on Heavy but so too was that lack of jumping fluency which, together with some bad luck, cost him his chance.
  • Yet to face the GN fences and has 2 Fs on his record, though the last was 2 years ago (don't be totally put off by Fs and URs - Rough Quest had a shed-load of them but won over the bigger version of the fences in 1996)
  • Made the frame in 75% of 16 chases.
  • 3 runs in the season, the last 25 days prior – in the sweet spot stats-wise

Extended weather forecast for Aintree shows it dry for the rest of March, and moderate rain before and during the GN meeting. Given the policy to water to ensure Official Going no quicker than GS (though official Good-to-Soft for GN-course seems to have particular latitude), it could go either way.

Bring it on.
 
:encouragement: good work pads
 
One of my favourite ever posts on here Pads. I thoroughly enjoyed reading that and I'll be revisiting this at final decs
 
PadstheFish said:
Decisions, decisions!!

At the e/w prices (and accepting that we may just have to cheer on Tiger Roll as winner without each way shillings aboard), the betting slip will include:

  • Ramses De Teillee (already backed, 33/1)
  • General Principle (already backed, 25/1)
  • Ms Parfois (if softer than GS)
  • Vintage Clouds (if GS or better)
  • and another TBD - maybe a reload on Abolitionist

But why Ms Parfois (if softer than GS) and Vintage Clouds (if GS or better) and why prefer them to Anibale Fly, who’s higher-rated if BDM runs and the same if he doesn't, regardless of going?

Last question first. On paper, Anibale Fly’s held (comfortably) at the weights by Tiger Roll and, at the prices, I’d rather look down the card to lightly-weighted GN debutants whose profiles look tailor-made for the race, given their ground.

MS PARFOIS

  • Tough mare with abundant stamina – close 2nd to Rathvinden in the 4m Novice Chase at the Festival last year on testing ground. They re-oppose on near-identical terms.
  • But Ms P has proven it over further still when a not-stopping 2nd (3L) with 11.04 in Saturday’s Midlands National over 34f - the longest trip in the calendar bar the Big One – on Heavy.
  • It may be said that the GN comes too soon, just 21 days after such a tough race, but her sequence of runs last year read 3111222 (the last six on Soft) and came at an average 24-day gap, with just five days between 2 of the wins. She tends to take her races well but, in any event, has had a much lighter campaign this season – 2 runs. First of the season was a disappointing 6th in the Hennessy in December, after noticeably sweating up prior to the race, but she did likewise on debut the previous season. Handled the hullabaloo of Cheltenham and the GN meeting last season well enough, and won't be "fresh".
  • She’ll be 7lbs well-in as a result of her Midlands National run and will carry a very appealing 10.02 (or 10.06 if BDM is scratched). There are not many, still in the early stages of their chasing career, that line up in a GN with such a low absolute weight and that have Grade 1 form - close 2nd in the 25f Novice Chase at last year's GN meeting, 4 weeks after the Festival.
  • Made frame in 78% of chases (5 wins/near-misses in 8 at 3m+).
  • Never faced the GN fences but 100% completions to date in 15 runs over obstacles
  • Would want meaningful cut (GS[Soft] or softer) for her best chance and might conceivably not run if ground is too quick.
  • No mare has won the GN since Nickel Coin in 1951 but harder for them these days to make the GN line-up. Prior to weights’ compression, Auntie Dot (1991), Ebony Jane (1994, 5 days after placing in the Irish GN) and Dubacilla (1995) all made the first 4 in the GN.
  • Races prominently – should minimise traffic problems.

VINTAGE CLOUDS

  • From GN-winning yard (Sue Smith), VC was very unfortunate to miss lining up last year, though maybe conditions wouldn’t have best suited him.
  • Needs five to come out to make the cut this time - should be OK, but bear in mind Elliot intends to run a cavalry division. If VC lines up, he’ll be 5lbs well-in after his staying-on close 2nd in the Ultima Chase at The Festival – significantly, his first run after a wind op.
  • He’ll carry just 10.00 (in the handicap) or 10.04 if BDM comes out.
  • His major stat-plus on form is identical to that of his stable’s GN winner (Auroras Encore) – a near-miss (4L 3rd) in the Scottish GN a year ago - like AE’s, run at a relentless gallop and clocking a fast time on Good ground. Though VC certainly has decent form on Soft, he seems to jump with more fluency on a sounder surface.
  • His stamina was evident in his dogged, staying-on 16.5L 4th with 11.01 in the 2017 Welsh GN on Heavy but so too was that lack of jumping fluency which, together with some bad luck, cost him his chance.
  • Yet to face the GN fences and has 2 Fs on his record, though the last was 2 years ago (don't be totally put off by Fs and URs - Rough Quest had a shed-load of them but won over the bigger version of the fences in 1996)
  • Made the frame in 75% of 16 chases.
  • 3 runs in the season, the last 25 days prior – in the sweet spot stats-wise

Extended weather forecast for Aintree shows it dry for the rest of March, and moderate rain before and during the GN meeting. Given the policy to water to ensure Official Going no quicker than GS (though official Good-to-Soft for GN-course seems to have particular latitude), it could go either way.

Bring it on.
Click to expand...

Absolutely superb read Pads, all the more so because I'm a big fan of RdT in general. Thanks for taking the time to put this together
 
wemzwazza said:
Absolutely superb read Pads, all the more so because I'm a big fan of RdT in general. Thanks for taking the time to put this together
Click to expand...

Cheers all. wemzwazza - the reasoning behind Ramses is at the top of Page 11, following on from a boring explanation of comparisons between the old and new models, which I realise is somewhat useless as I've never posted them on FJ before, but shared with friends and acquaintances in the past.

But either way, them's the biscuits for RdT if you haven't had a gander already.
 
Thank you for sharing this Pads.

I echo the earlier comments, one of the best posts I've ever read on here.


I've now added Ramses De Teillee at 33/1. As better case on page 11 than you'll find on Sporting Life or the Racing Post for sure. Win lose or draw, the effort and theory deserves to be followed.

(Currently)
Don Poli 80/1 and 50/1
Ramses De Teillee 33/1

I'll be adding 3 more... but no rush
 
As it stands I’ve

2.5U e/w on Rathvinden
1.5U e/w on Mall Dini
0.5U e/w on General Principle

Plan to add Abolitionist and now it’s tough to look away from RDT

5 will be enough, 6 when i back Tiger on the day
 
all aboard Pads Ramses express :)
 
It's exactly 100 years since the winner, ridden by Lester's granddad, started at less than 6/1 and 99 years since the SP was less than 13/2.

7/2 is a bonkers price. Most horses are 6/4 to even get round so you're effectively saying that Tiger Roll is odds on to win if he gets round.
 
archie said:
It's exactly 100 years since the winner, ridden by Lester's granddad, started at less than 6/1 and 99 years since the SP was less than 13/2.

7/2 is a bonkers price. Most horses are 6/4 to even get round so you're effectively saying that Tiger Roll is odds on to win if he gets round.
Click to expand...

I agree and am not backing tiger roll

But I wouldn't lay at odds against if he did get round.

Hard to argue he's not a better horse this year.

Couldn't back him but I'd love to see him win
 
Having said that ... The Tiger Roll / Tiger Woods double is hard to ignore

#legends
#betwithyourheartnotyourhead
 
archie said:
It's exactly 100 years since the winner, ridden by Lester's granddad, started at less than 6/1 and 99 years since the SP was less than 13/2.

7/2 is a bonkers price. Most horses are 6/4 to even get round so you're effectively saying that Tiger Roll is odds on to win if he gets round.
Click to expand...

What price should he be then??
 
jack1092 said:
What price should he be then??
Click to expand...

There's an argument that, if you agree that Auvergnat ran below par at Cheltenham, Tiger Roll's performance wasn't much of an improvement on last year. I don't lay horses but I certainly wouldn't dream of backing any horse for the National at less than 6/1.
 
Tiger Roll is going to be 5/1 at least on the Saturday, isn't he? He has to be backed in this, even if purely as a saver imo.
 
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