2018 Grand National

[Faugheen_Machine]

I thought Cause of Causes was out for the season. Was going to be my pick

He is Ron:encouragement:

 

[BigChaang]

When was Cause of causes withdrawn Faugheen ? , I only noticed it today myself., So i'm down to 7 now.

 

[jono]

News broke on 29th March BC, from Frank Berry:

He definitely won’t run,” Berry said. “He’s picked up an injury at Cheltenham and we have to look after him.” Berry couldn’t even be sure the 10-year-old will return to the track, though the main thing is clearly that his life is in no danger.

 

[doctorwu]

I see they've changed the going to Soft. That could be a minimum with rain expected every day.
Raz comes into the mix if its a bog.

 

[Istabraq]

Double Ross is the the new no' 40, last in.

Go Conquer, Rathvinden, Acapella Bourgeois and Bellshill those taken out who were guaranteed to get a run...

 

[doctorwu]

Matt Brocklebank highlights the key stats from the last 10 renewals of the Randox Health Grand National at Aintree, unveiling the importance of age, odds, proven stamina and more.

Age

Two eight-year-olds have won in the past three years, with nine-year-old Rule The World scoring in between that pair. Before that no eight-year-old had prevailed since Party Politics in 1992.

Horses aged 11 and nine have the slight edge in this look at the past decade, with three such winners falling into each bracket, plus a couple of 10-year-olds.

With such a huge prize pot, the Grand National now attracts much classier - and therefore younger - horses than in years gone by, and fancied runners Anibale Fly, Minella Rocco and Tiger Roll are among those bidding to make it three in four years for eight-year-olds.

Weight/Rating

A wide range of weights and ratings are represented on the recent roll of honour, with class act Many Clouds able to defy 11-9 (from an official BHA rating of 160) and Auroras Encore sneaking in under a feather weight (10-3/BHA mark 137) two years before him.

Seemingly gone are the days of a 'golden ratings band', with two horses rated in the 130s, four in the 140s, three in the 150s, plus the aforementioned 160-rated winner.

Carrying over 11-00 is also no barrier to success, as was considered the case for many years, and it's hard to lend much weight to the fact that those rated in the 140s have just come out best over the past 10 seasons.

Such is the quality in the 2018 renewal, even the five horses rated 150, namely Tiger Roll, Regal Encore and Vieux Lion Rouge are set to carry under 11-0 if top weight Minella Rocco stands his ground at the final declaration stage.

Click here for Sky Bet's latest Grand National odds - Non-Runner No Bet & Best Odds Guaranteed - five places on each-way bets

Odds

Starting Prices of 7/1 right out to 100/1 have returned successful over the past 10 years, but stripping away those two extreme examples leaves a range of just 10/1 to 33/1, with half of the 10 priced either 25/1 or 33/1.

There have been three 25/1 winners and they all come in the five most recent editions and at the time of writing there are half a dozen horses in that area of the market, including Seeyouatmidnight, Ucello Conti, Vicente and I Just Know.

National course experience

Perhaps a little surprising is that only three have come into the race with experience over the unique National fences to their name, and one of those fell at the first attempt.

Mon Mome was 10th in Comply Or Die's National the year before he won it and last year's hero One For Arthur had finished fifth in the Becher Chase earlier in the campaign.

Pineau De Re was the horse who tipped up in the Becher the season before he entered Aintree folklore and aside from this trio the winners have been having their first look at the Grand National course.

Stamina (won chase at 3m+)

It almost goes without saying when referring to a handicap chase over a distance just beyond four and a quarter miles, but stamina is essential.

This is highlighted by the fact that only one (Rule The World) of the past 10 National winners came into the race having not already won a chase over 3m, or further - the horse in question was a bit of a 'freak' as he'd not won a chase of any kind.

Among those who do not strictly 'qualify' on account of unproven stamina on the racecourse are Seeyouatmidnight, Ucello Conti, Alpha Des Obeaux and Captain Redbeard.

Chase starts

At least 10 chase starts has been the minimum requirement for National winners over the past decade.

There have been two winners with 10 outings over fences to their name, both coming in the past three years, and another couple with 12, plus one with 13 and two more with 14.

Neptune Collognes and Auroras Encore came along in back-to-back years with 27 and 23 chase starts to their name respectively prior to winning the big one, but generally the trend is for 10-14.

Antepost favourite Total Recall together with well-fancied trio Seeyouatmidnight, Pleasant Company and The Dutchman, all fall just short with nine outings in chases and another highly-touted runner, Gold Present, will only be having his ninth start over fences on April 14.

Vintage Clouds is still technically a novice but both is well into his second season as a chaser having failed to win in this sphere last term, and have run 11 over fences.

If the trend is leaning towards fewer chase starts, then the two this year to have had exactly 10 runs over fences are Virgilio and I Just Know.

CONCLUSION:

There is no perfect formula, unsurprisingly, but the general trend sees younger, less exposed horses taking Grand National glory and while it's a 5-5 split in the last 10 when it comes to carrying under/over 11-00 in weight, a low weight and an improving horse is always preferable in just about every handicap race in all forms of the game.

With eight-year-olds doing so well in recent years it's tempting to stick to that age group, and the one eight-year-old with exactly 10 chase starts to his name also 'qualifies' on account of being a proven stayer and set for a first spin in the National.

I JUST KNOW is also rated in the 140s (145) and is around the ideal price at 25/1. He comes into the race having won the North Yorkshire Grand National at Catterick in January and tuned up for Aintree with a pleasing run in a novice hurdle at Uttoxeter in March.

He represents Auroras Encore's trainer Sue Smith, who is adept at preparing staying chasers for the days that matter most, and the gelding's credentials appear solid.

 

[Istabraq]

Yep, that's my conclusion too Doc, it's become impossible to apply any real logic/trends to the race now.
The modified fences have, in my opinion, created a very different race, and it will be some years before any trends develop that help point us towards the winner.

The only trends I will apply:

Avoid horses under 8yo
Focus on horses who have proven fitness, run in the past 50 days
Irish breds a positive
Must have winning form over at least 3m
Must have won a race with a value of at least £15k

These won't narrow the field down massively but it's a start...

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

I'm interested in the nine or less finisher price if the rain continues I don't think there will be many more than that

 

[Muswell]

I'm interested in the nine or less finisher price if the rain continues I don't think there will be many more than that

Not a bad shout I was there the red marauder day and even with the remounting only 4 managed a different challenge these days granted

 

[Istabraq]

I'm interested in the nine or less finisher price if the rain continues I don't think there will be many more than that

Easier fences now Mr M and prize money down to 10th.
Only 7 fallers in last two renewals, certainly an easier course to navigate now...

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Is there that much rain forecast? It doesn't look that bad to me and is only soft, good to soft in places at the moment.

 

[doctorwu]

Is there that much rain forecast? It doesn't look that bad to me and is only soft, good to soft in places at the moment.

National course quoted as SOFT at the moment. Rain forecast all week depending on what alarmist you listen too

 

[doctorwu]

Looking at all the racetracks around that area it has to be soft, unless Aintree is built on sand/chalk, which it isn't.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

My son lives a few miles from the track and his garden is sodden, granted the drainage at top racecourses is always a priority but the water table in this part of the country must be an inch below the surface, any rain just sits on the surface. I take istys point about the easier course, but this year has been something else, remembering the race at Haydock where Blacklion clambered over the last fence, would STD have kept pushing that day had he had another mile to run and 6 fences to jump, regardless of prize money

 

[doctorwu]

I'm interested in the nine or less finisher price if the rain continues I don't think there will be many more than that

If we do get those ground conditions we have to be on Raz De Maree. I know he's 13 but he did win the Welsh Nash in a bog. Im waiting for the day before I add him to my list weather permitting.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I don't live very far away. After a lovely drying day yesterday, it lashed down all night and there are puddles in my garden again this morning. Enough rain about today / tomorrow to keep it soft until Thursday morning imo.

Not much about after that and I imagine it will be at best Good to Soft, Soft in Places, but most likely Soft.

 

[doctorwu]

I don't live very far away. After a lovely drying day yesterday, it lashed down all night and there are puddles in my garden again this morning. Enough rain about today / tomorrow to keep it soft until Thursday morning imo.

Not much about after that and I imagine it will be at best Good to Soft, Soft in Places, but most likely Soft.

Thanks CCM. Keep us posted on your garden conditions.:highly_amused:

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Thanks CCM. Keep us posted on your garden conditions.:highly_amused:

Its actually been biblical this morning doc. As heavy rain as we have had all year Id say. Wouldnt be surprised if there are some heavy patches on course by now if they have had it as bad.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Just read some stats that state 18 of the last 21 winners carried 11st or less, so it's a bit of a stretch to say weight doesn't matter. With the likely going this year it's difficult to ignore that particular one this year, also 17 of the last 21 winners were aged 9 to 11, but 2 of the last 3 years have been won by 8 year olds.

 

[Istabraq]

Just read some stats that state 18 of the last 21 winners carried 11st or less, so it's a bit of a stretch to say weight doesn't matter. With the likely going this year it's difficult to ignore that particular one this year, also 17 of the last 21 winners were aged 9 to 11, but 2 of the last 3 years have been won by 8 year olds.

It may be extreme but I almost disregard trends from pre 2013 now the race has changed so much.

It's always been a brutal test of jumping and stamina but now the fences are only solid for less 3 feet with loose birch making up the the remainder horses simply run through them, just 7 fallers in the last 2 years, so for me they now go quicker with the primary emphasis being on stamina.

Trends will evolve that help us in years to come but age, and in particular weight, used to be clear guides but are less so now...