2017 Stayers Hurdle

[Kevloaf]

Kevloaf, Faugheen, Annie's, Vroum Vroum, Jezki, Shaneshill? Don't get me wrong you can't fault the performance but I just felt other than Ballyoptic and Snow Falcon, there wasn't really any depth in the race

I should have been a little clearer, because obviously the first 3 you mentioned would expect to beat that field by 6l+ .... but we know if any of them were targetted at the race they would be evens.

I wouldn't be sure Jezki retained the ability so wouldn't expect that and Shaneshill, if he did win by that far, the market would have had the same reaction?

 

[Leman14]

I think that Uknowhatimeanharry is too short at 5/1 (I certainly wouldn't lump on at that price today), but he's done nothing wrong and looks to have put to bed my bet on Ballyoptic!

The market is still very muddled.
Not sure what is going on with Faugheen, Thistlecrack won't run here, a MAX of one of Annie P or VVM will run, doubts over Jezki's fitness/still holding ability, Nichols Canyon still running/winning at 2m and Yanworth unproven at this distance...
Whilst it could be argued that he didn't beat much - he has certainly put down a marker and is clearly still progressing...

Have I just talked myself into having a nibble at 5/1... (maybe in an acca or two)

 

[Kevloaf]

Unbeaten last season and a festival win... if he 'backed up' that performance next time, then he should be a clear favourite? Easy for me to say, as I am on at 25s as I mentioned a few pages back, with the other seven!

He has improved every single race in the last two years and I think 'More Of That' had a similar profile when he beat Annie Power in the race...

 

[cwright23]

The only reason UKWIMH has been knocked is because he's from an unfashionable stable.. He was 25/1 at the start of the season after winning the AB and then been purchased by JP.. If he was owned by ricci and trained by Mullins he would have opened 6/1.. The dominance of WPM just opens up the value from other stables I feel. The only negative is the record of AB winners going onto the WH

 

[Kevloaf]

Talk of Yanworth now avoiding UKWIMH all season... seems a very clear indication of what they think they have on their hands here.

I don't see anything to beat him over the head with. I'm going to find a multiple to put him in with :encouragement:

 

[jono]

I've missed the fancy prices on UKWIMH but like the idea of him in a multiple. If he wins his next race in the same style he'll be very short so i'm still tempted by the current price.

cwright - you bring up the point on Albert Bartlett winners/runners in the World Hurdle. Any thoughts (and everyone) as to why? Some of the best runners in the novice 3 mile race often go chasing which means some of the best talent doesn't always tackle the World Hurdle but it still doesn't account to the ones that stay over hurdles. Too hard a race so early on in their career?

If that is the case - in the past 10 years before 2016 the age of the winners have been:

7year old - 4
6year old - 5
5year old - 1

UKWIMH's rise has come out quite late in the day in his career so he is out of the norm being 8 years old. For me that is a positive as that kind of gruelling race may not have made it's mark so much on an 8 year old compared to a 5 or 6 year old. He certainly looks even better on that one run so far. Think he may be able to buck the trend for Albert Bartlett winners.

Right think i've talked myself into 6/1...

Oh and Kev, here was Cooper today on Apples Jade...

She's only four, maybe in two years she'll be a World Hurdle horse, this year the Mares' Hurdle over two-five might be her race, but I'll leave that to others to decide

Fair play for you calling out the World Hurdle so early on, just a year ahead by the sounds of it Though I had always thought chasing was going to be her game?

 

[Kevloaf]

Yeh I saw that and duly wiped away my tears of joy with my useless betting slips :encouragement:

Regarding the Albert Barlett and reasons they maybe don't go on to do so well, is that I don't think horses with asperations of winning a WH in the future, would run in the most grueling race they could. SOme would run in the 'classier' races like the Neptune... with a view to them improving for a step up as they get older... (Simply, if a horse looks like it might be better over 3m, why rush it)? I think that happening with 'a few' horses would mean the standard of the AB is less than it perhaps could/should be?

 

[mayo]

Faugheen going here ?

 

[Kevloaf]

Faugheen going here ?

Has there been any money for it on the exchanges?

I'd guess Faugheen and World Hurdle won't come out of connections mouths until we've seen both him and Annie Power make there comeback runs.

 

[billymag]

The best horses from the Albert Bartlett ie winner, more often than not go chasing so that affects the impact the race has on the following years World Hurdle. At Fishers Cross being the notable exception and he finished 3rd. Like all stats depends on how you look at them.

The winners of the Albert Bartlett who didnt go chasing form figures in the following years World Hurdle are: 3rd, 9th (wichita lineman), Fell at third fence (Black jack Ketchum). A very small sample size which is pretty uninspiring but, shows that its too small to gain and absolute rules from.

 

[mayo]

I think the Albert Bartlett has improved over the years - at fishers cross was 3rd the year after winning. bobs worth won the rsa the year after he won - trend is definitely up.

 

[mayo]

Anyone know anything about French horse in the long walk ?

 

[Kevloaf]

There might be a correlation between a rise in the depth and form of the 4 miler and the AB?

The more races the festival has, the more chances to have a 'fez winner' as well as minding a horse for future 'proper races'. It could mean horses that have a real long term aim, run in the AB as a prep for the 4 miler as a prep for the Gold Cup/GN



What price is Unowhatimeanharry going to be if he wins the Long Walk Hurdle (of which he is fav)... is he going to be cut to fav? IF so, with the (huge) doubt that Faugheen runs, isn't the 6s available absolutely massive? I accept Faugheen or Thistlecrack running would destroy any ante post bets for this, but that must be worth the risk?! Faugheen is taking an absolute chunk out of this, if we KNEW he wasn't running, and Thistlecrack, how on earth could you have these prices??

 

[mayo]

Anyone know anything about French horse in the long walk ?

Found this

Anthony Bromley, racing manager to owner Simon Munir, commented: "The plan is for Alex De Larredya to go over to Ascot for the JLT Long Walk Hurdle.

"The long-term aim is to go for the Grand Course De Haies D'Auteuil again. He has run in September, October and November, so the Long Walk would fit into his programme as the final race before he goes off for a winter break.

"With the Long Walk being a Grade One, the conditions of the race suit him as a Grade One winner and so we thought we could keep him ticking him over for it.

"Daryl (Jacob) will be going over to France to sit on him and school him over some English-style hurdles.

"Obviously, we have had to make the entry now just under a month away, but in principle if all goes well we will be coming over.

"He is an interesting horse in that he was second to Ptit Zig in the Grande Course De Haies D'Auteuil in June and then turned the tables on his rival last time out. It is going to be a tough-looking Long Walk."

 

[Leman14]

Would love to see Ballyoptic overturn the form with UKWIMH, but can't see it happening.
(Cheltenham pocket talking of course!)

 

[jono]

What price is Unowhatimeanharry going to be if he wins the Long Walk Hurdle (of which he is fav)... is he going to be cut to fav?

The ideal races leading up to the World Hurdle (at least for the English horses) are:

Long Distance Hurdle - Newbury - Nov
Long Walk Hurdle - Ascot - Dec
Cleeve Hurdle - Cheltenham - Jan

UKWIMH has already won the first trial. If he wins as expected at Ascot then he's won 2 of the major trials for the race. I'd expect 5/2 at best

I've got multiples for Faugheen in this but even if he was to be confirmed for the race i'm not sure how confident i'd be for him to beat a UKWIMH who has come into the race unbeaten for the season winning all the key races. At most Faugheen will only go up to 2m5 before March so the competitive step up to 3m will be an unknown - he'll be the classiest horse in the race by miles but there'll be a certain degree of hope that he can win a grade 1 3m hurdle race at the festival especially with what looks like an interrupted and not ideal preperation. There's then no other horse i'd worry about if UKWIMH keeps up the performance of his Newbury, let alone improves

He's a previous festival winner, and has a 100% record at the track from 3 runs too. I like UKWIMH so it's not quite the same but Dodging Bullets was a horse I was dead against the year he won the Champion Chase - he kept winning all the key trials and had all the form in the book but I kept dismissing him. Sometimes it's just too obvious.

I've joined the party late on this one :disgust: as he's only 5/1 now but I've just added him into my antepost portfolio, looks rock solid really.

 

[Leman14]

All hope is not lost with Ballyoptic..... he just needs to finish a race!!!

 

[jono]

He (Ballyoptic) ran a mighty race Leman.

Has there ever been such an improved horse brought about by a stable change? UNWIMH was a 123 rated horse when he joined Harry Fry. It's not like the step up in trip brought about a change either really having ran similar distances with his old trainer.

I honestly thought a horse couldn't keep improving that much, hence my underestimated view on his prospects this season thinking he may have reached his ceiling winning the Albert Bartlett....

5/2 now for the World Hurdle. Banker material (bar Faugheen turning up and making it a race)?

 

[Kevloaf]

He's beaten every English rival, so he is the English banker so far.... if one of the Ricci stars doesn't turn up, the Irish don't have a great record anyway.... so it is just RAWNAQ to fear :triumphant:

 

[Leman14]

I still think that UNWIMH would have won had Ballyoptic stayed on his feet, but I'm not as downbeat as I was after Newbury.