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2017 Grand Annual

I've never been able to work Dodging Bullets out. BAcked him in the supreme, flopped. Was rubbish in the Arkle the year after the year Champagne Fever won :very_drunk: ... then won the Champion Chase?!

At the start of this season though, Nicholls was pretty adament he needed a step up in trip now because he wasn't that good over 2m. That hasn't worked so coming back down. I'd find it hard to see that as a 'plot' as such.

I just keep flitting between feeling like I would be STUPID not to back a previous Champion Chase winner in the Grand Annual, to thinking that he is the easiest horse to ruule out because he has always been bang average and got very very very lucky.
 
Kevloaf said:
I've never been able to work Dodging Bullets out. BAcked him in the supreme, flopped. Was rubbish in the Arkle the year after the year Champagne Fever won :very_drunk: ... then won the Champion Chase?!

At the start of this season though, Nicholls was pretty adament he needed a step up in trip now because he wasn't that good over 2m. That hasn't worked so coming back down. I'd find it hard to see that as a 'plot' as such.

I just keep flitting between feeling like I would be STUPID not to back a previous Champion Chase winner in the Grand Annual, to thinking that he is the easiest horse to ruule out because he has always been bang average and got very very very lucky.
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Me too Kev.
Always been one that I have avoided backing.....

On the Nicholls lines, I do like Le Prezien for this - won earlier in the season at Cheltenham and although he could still go Arkle, has a decent chance in this.
 
I think I will have a small each way bet on DB as a just in case scenario and my only reason I can come up with is the fact he is a Champion Chaser 2 yrs ago. But as I say it will only be a small bet and I will likely have something else in the race too
 
My take on this (and handicaps in general) is that horses run here for a reason, they may have been top table in years gone by but if they retained any of that level of ability they'd be running in the championship races.
I can't think (though I'm sure there are a few) of a horse who went from winning championship races to winning big handicaps years down the line, and this is due to a horses regression being underestimated and a handicapper slow to make allowances for that regression.
Handicaps generally go to unexposed types who haven't yet showed their true ability so when it comes to races like this I prefer to focus on non championship winning horses...
 
Istabraq said:
My take on this (and handicaps in general) is that horses run here for a reason, they may have been top table in years gone by but if they retained any of that level of ability they'd be running in the championship races.
I can't think (though I'm sure there are a few) of a horse who went from winning championship races to winning big handicaps years down the line, and this is due to a horses regression being underestimated and a handicapper slow to make allowances for that regression.
Handicaps generally go to unexposed types who haven't yet showed their true ability so when it comes to races like this I prefer to focus on non championship winning horses...
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Very good insight Ista thank you. Havent pulled the trigger yet and glad i didnt after reading your thoughts there. Yes it could very well be a regression. Maybe i will leave it and find soething else like Ball Darc or Le Prezien as was mention on here by a few.
 
I'm astonished at the market for this race. We have Dandridge@10s and Velvet Maker (who gave dandridge over a stone, and a beating last time out) @20s…….go figure.
 
doctorwu said:
I'm astonished at the market for this race. We have Dandridge@10s and Velvet Maker (who gave dandridge over a stone, and a beating last time out) @20s…….go figure.
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I would not take that form too literally. Firstly it was over hurdles and Dandridge has never been much of a hurdler (rated only 113) and secondly it would have been nothing more than a prep race for both horses to bring them along for Cheltenham. In fact I'd take not one race of Dandridge this season as true form as the spend the while season getting his mark back down for another crack at this race.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I would not take that form too literally. Firstly it was over hurdles and Dandridge has never been much of a hurdler (rated only 113) and secondly it would have been nothing more than a prep race for both horses to bring them along for Cheltenham. In fact I'd take not one race of Dandridge this season as true form as the spend the while season getting his mark back down for another crack at this race.
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VM, 1st run in almost a year, treated very kindly on the run-in. Im also on Dandridge @16s
 
I can't have either of the 2 Nichols horses in this personally. Certainly not Dodging Bullets and go along with what Ista and Kev have said. Le Prezian I can at least see the reasoning for having won in the Arkle trial at the course in November and form that ties in closely with Charbel and Top Notch but sketchy jumping and 4 runs in 5, 3, 5 and 6 runner fields this year is the exact opposite of what I want in a Grand Annual runner.

So that's one of the main criteria that I look for in the race myself - ideally previous festival form or at least form in big fields/handicaps. Coupled with confidence in their jumping with it being run at such a pace.

A couple on my list:

Starchitect - 143 - 9/1

I forget this horse is still only 6years old - seems like he's been around for years and years. Ran well in some real competitive races over hurdles :

4th (22 runners) in the Fred Winter at the 2015 festival
2nd on his seasonal debut in the Betfair Hurdle (22 runners)
5th (26 runners) in the County Hurdle in last years festival
3rd at Aintree in a 22 runner handicap.

Usually i'd be slightly wary of a 6 year old in this contest but he has stacks of placed form in big competitive handicap fields so it's not so much of a worry with him. I'm adamant this horse will win a big handicap one day, you could say he might just come short once again but in those handicap runs mentioned he was 16/1 16/1 10/1 7/1 CoFav so he's often outrun his odds.
Has run well on ground varying from good to heavy so has no concerns there, nor course or festival form. Can be known to throw in the odd blunder but overall looks to have taken to fences well. Pipe i'm sure will be very pleased with the 143 rating in this. Won over hurdles off the same mark and I think there's more to come from him over fences. Current fav though so hasn't been unnoticed or unbacked. Looks a very strong chance to at least place. He is entered in 4 races though and Pipe is yet to confirm the target.

Pairofbrowneyes - 140 - 25/1

Another horse who has very solid placed form throughout his career. Pairofbrowneyes is yet to run at the festival but had his first taste of the course this November in a handicap chase. He ran a great race before just getting done near the line by Un Beau Roman who was in receipt of 8lbs that day. That was a lovely introduction to the track and this race was considered the plan very soon afterwards. Another who has place form in some big field handicaps:

2nd in that 9 runner handicap chase in November
3/15 and 3/17 at the 2016 Punchestown Festival
Plus 2nd/13, 3rd/16, 3rd/18, 4th/17, 6th/24 amongst his form

The big field fast pace nature of the race should not faze him and he'll get in off the lower end scale of the weights.

Dandridge - 143 - 10/1

2nd in the race last year. Like Jackie says ignore all his form since with a repeat bid the plan this year. The racing comments sum up his 4 runs this year perfectly: "tailed off / one pace / one pace / kept on without threatening". Arguably slightly unlucky last year after making a bad error at the first. Bound to have Russell on board which is always a plus.
 
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Jono , i read yesterday that Starchitect may run in the fest plate , if so , another mis placed runner for me , but , on the trend s / stats i've been following , Interseting - D.Pipe on a friday , - 0 - 53 runners , 3 placed. so maybe the plate is a better bet ???.
 
Jono , i read yesterday that Starchitect may run in the fest plate , if so , another mis placed runner for me , but , on the trend s / stats i've been following , Interesting - D.Pipe on a friday , - 0 - 53 runners , 3 placed. so maybe the plate is a better bet ???.
 
sorry about double post , was trying to correct my spelling mistake !
 
BigChaang said:
Jono , i read yesterday that Starchitect may run in the fest plate , if so , another mis placed runner for me , but , on the trend s / stats i've been following , Interesting - D.Pipe on a friday , - 0 - 53 runners , 3 placed. so maybe the plate is a better bet ???.
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I have Starchitect in a yankee, and a double (ADO) in RSA, looked classy winning his novice chase at Ayr, could be a real plunge horse that, given connections
 
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