The first thing that struck you, when the entries for tomorrow’s Stan James Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown became available on Tuesday, was how moderate a contest it looked.
At that stage, there were ten possibilities and it took some leap of faith to envisage any of them playing a meaningful role in the Cheltenham Gold Cup next month.
Those that are left in the contest have no real pretensions to being top class and the winner will have to produce something that has been hidden under the bonnet until now if he is to be afforded more than a cursory glance.
Mind you this Irish Gold Cup has been on a bit of a downward spiral for a while and has not gone to the subsequent winner of the Cheltenham showpiece since Imperial Call in 1996.
It used to be a really great race and has been won in the past by seriously good horses, such as Carvill’s Hill, Jodami, Imperial Call, Danoli, Dorans Pride, Florida Pearl and Beef Or Salmon.
But for a number of years now it has become increasingly irrelevant as a Cheltenham trial and this renewal is more notable for those that are missing, rather than those who are running.
For instance, neither Djakadam or Outlander were left in on Tuesday and that, at least, is a statement of intent on the part of connections.
They will now head for Cheltenham particularly fresh horses, rested since Outlander beat Don Poli by two and a quarter lengths into second in the Lexus at Leopardstown at Christmas, with Djakadam a head further away in third.
Djakadam, still only an eight-year-old, has twice finished second in the Gold Cup and Willie Mullins clearly believes that this preparation offers his relative underachiever the best opportunity to finally deliver.
In a campaign that has seen Mullins on the canvas more than once, but very much still standing, it would be mighty ironic to see Djakadam give him the Gold Cup, after he trained the second on no less than six occasions.
This is some wide-open Gold Cup and makes a mockery of those derisory odds-on quotes earlier regarding Colin Tizzard’s Thistlecrack.
This week Thistlecrack was a 7-4 shot after, in my opinion, actually boosting his prospects at Cheltenham on his latest appearance when beaten a head into second by the ill-fated Many Clouds.
To my eyes this was his best performance over fences, better than his easy win in the King George at Kempton, because he would have learned a lot more, after being forced out of his comfort zone.
At such cramped odds, I will still be against him next month, but if you have always been a fan then there is no reason to jump ship now.
Native River, especially, and Cue Card give Tizzard a strong hand. Native River landed the Welsh National at Chepstow in some style and the form was boosted when Baie Des Iles, beaten over 23 lengths, when in receipt of 12lbs, bolted in at Punchestown last Sunday.
Then you have Bristol de Mai, who is only six and scored by 22 lengths at Haydock last time. The second, Otago Trail, won easily at Sandown a week ago. The fact that Bristol de Mai and Native River are taking each other on in the Denman Chase at Newbury today promises to be most informative.
Add in the hugely impressive Gowran Park Thyestes Chase winner, Champagne West, Outlander, Djakadam and one or two others and the only conclusion to be drawn is if they all turn up on the day that Thistlecrack is virtually guaranteed to be a bigger price than he is now.
