Thistlecrack has dominated the market for the Blue Riband event at the Cheltenham Festival pretty much all season long and he cemented his position as firm favourite with his brilliant win in the King George on Boxing Day. At a top price even money, however, he makes little or no appeal as a solid betting medium two months in advance as he’s likely to be a similar or even bigger price given how the markets tend to operate on the day itself. On top of that, it’s not as if he’s totally risk-free or as good as everyone thinks based on his speed figures. On one or two occasions, his jumping – especially at ditches – has been enough to turn the stomach of the calmest onlooker and it will be interesting to see how he fares when he faces his last examination around the Gold Cup course at Cheltenham this coming Saturday.
On the speed figure front, although he’s posted some decent numbers, he hasn’t done anything yet to suggest he’s miles ahead of the rest of the pack and there are some grounds to think he’s actually got to improve to beat some of his opponents on the big day. Taking his King George performance as an example, and visually it looked spectacular, but on closer examination, it wasn’t as good as the eye suggested it was. His overall time of 5.53.50 was smart, but it only marginally bettered the effort of Royal Vacation’s win over the same C&D in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase to the tune of 0.7 seconds, and if Might Bite had stayed on his feet in the latter contest, the son of Kayf Tara would have been some way behind the time posted by Nicky Henderson’s crack novice. Indeed, timing the pair from the path going away from the stands to the last fence where Might Bite fell, it shows that Colin Tizzard’s charge was 1.3 seconds slower on the final lap than the unfortunate novice. Furthermore, the even more revealing statistic about the two races was Might Bite’s 58.1 from four out to the last in comparison to Thistlecrack’s 1.00.0 – and that was point of the race where Thistlecrack was seemingly going into overdrive. This suggests either the former is a total worldy and should be running in the Gold Cup and not the RSA, or we should all be calming down regarding the latter. The truth probably lies somewhere in between.
So if Thistlecrack isn’t the modern-day Arkle as some have suggested, who are his main dangers and, more importantly, what is the best value bet left in the race. Well, the logical threat looks to be stablemate Native River based on his two tremendous performances in the Hennessy and Welsh National and although they may have only been top-quality handicaps, let’s not forget the likes of Cool Ground, Master Oats and Synchronised trod similar paths before they went on to Gold Cup glory in the same season. Looking at Native River’s Hennessy win and it gives us some idea of what he achieved in comparison to his stablemate who took the Bet365 Novices chase over 3f shorter earlier on the card. Off the back of much stronger overall fractions, the son of Indian River still managed to run a final lap of 3.05.3 which was only 1.6 slower than Thistlecrack’s circuit time, so he’s clearly not a million miles away from his stablemate based on these figures and he still seems to be improving. At 6-1, he appears the no-nonsense each-way alternative to the favourite at this stage.
Another to throw his hat firmly into the ring recently is BRISTOL DE MAI (best price 20-1) who went from an unconsidered 66-1 poke to genuine dangerous Gold Cup floater following what can only be described as a total demolition job of his field in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock. Not only was his visually impressive at the Lancashire venue, the figures he posted reminded everyone of what he’s capable of when he pieces it all together. Earning an 83 rating on my speed figures (Outlander previous best with 82 when winning Lexus and Thistlecrack’s best 73 at Newbury), Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge also ran the final lap 2.1 seconds quicker than Waiting Patiently and Ubaltique respectively, which points towards the fact he was getting even stronger the further the race went on. Indeed, even his sectional time on the run-in of 15.8 was much better than the other pair in question (16.6 and 16.4) and these findings are even more impressive given he was heavily eased in the latter stages.
As this race and many others before have told us, the son of Saddler Maker is clearly as very talented horse under certain conditions – a flat, galloping left-hand track on soft ground being his optimum. That said, he also has plenty of smart form on other courses and his run at last year’s Cheltenham Festival in the JLT indicated the fences and undulating nature of Prestbury Park holds no fears. Yet to finish out of the first three in 15 races in this country, he’s a Grade 1 winner over hurdles and fences who has dined at the very top table throughout his brief career, and apart from Native River, is arguably the best jumper in the field. Although soft ground would clearly be a bonus on the day, he’s handled good ground to a decent standard in the past and given how strong he was in the latter stages at Haydock, he’s open to further improvement over the Gold Cup trip. Therefore, despite only Long Run winning as a six-year-old in recent times, he makes plenty of appeal at his current prices and being as he hails from a trainer who knows what it takes to get a Gold Cup horse prepared for the big day, 20-1 is too big for a horse of his consistency at the top level and overall talent.
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