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2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Would like to see BH in the GC abut for the horses progression it could be better to go to the Ryan air, a race you would feel he could win with his mouth open as Ruby would say and then go to the GC in 2018, but again today more positive updates on coneygree this time from regular jockey Nico de boinville saying they know the horse best from the work they do at home and he's been schooling just as well as when he won the GC, but nico joins the list of people to doubt thistlecrack and says the horse has to jump a fence first which is true, but I do hope he proves all the doubters wrong and turns into a top chasing prospect
 
They have reason to be bold regarding Coneygree. He has been there and done it. Thistlecrack, if he jumps a fence well, will be too short for the Gold Cup. They'll price up based on jumping cleanly, winning the World Hurdle seemingly with plenty in hand and they'll factor in that a novice won it in 2015. None of that is as solid as GC C&D form. However, I am already on Thistlecrack and him shortening won't hurt me. I think the closer we get, and the shorter the price becomes, the more people will start to look at horses like Djakadam, Coneygree, Cue Card and Don Cossack as 'value' alternatives...and they may very well be right. At 7/1 now though, I see that as a great value bet, because Thistlecrack will be favourite for this, unless Vautour wins the King George going away... *thinking out loud*
 
Melissa Jones @fillyonfire seemed to suggest Thistlecrack will go to RSA on twitter today. Age against them but who knows ?
 
That would be absolutely crushing if it happened. Surely not, Gold Cup or World Hurdle.

Who is she? and why is she ruining my life? :disgust:
 
Cannot understand what could have occurred to have changed their stance since the end of last season :confused:

Here's quotes from February 2016 from Tizzard.

You watch his jumping, his technique is fantastic. He jumps anything you put in front of him. We schooled him over fences last year and he was good.
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So he's clearly done quite a fair bit of schooling over fences long before the summer just gone. Any setback or signs that he isn't quite taking to fences would surely make them revert back to the World Hurdle!

Melissa Jones know far more than me but I'm struggling to see it. The only reasons I can think of is:

A. Cue Card is looking so well again this season he believes he could still win the Gold Cup / wants to aim him at the Betfair/KG/Gold Cup bonus and has persuaded Thistlecracks owners to wait 1 more year

B. Or it has nothing to do with Cue Card, just they took their time with the horse and were very easy on him early on in his career. 11 runs over hurdles is slightly less than most 8 year olds have raced in (from my very brief look, correct me if i'm wrong) so maybe they are thinking he'll be under raced compared to your typical 10 year old so could still have time on his hands to be peaking for the Gold Cup at 10 years old which is the safer and more natural route to go down?

I'd still be amazed if he went RSA though...
 
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To be honest I think traditions are going out the window more and more each season especially when it comes to age, the grand national being a good example, used to look for a solid 10 year old with experience over fences, now they are 7/8 year olds with the fresher legs, also look at Djakadam in the last two gold cups finishing 2nd at the age of 6 and 7, and not to forget coneygree winning at the age of 8, thistlecrack has to be a gold cup horse
 
Coneygree winning as a novice then spending a year out injured is enough to convince anyone to 'seize the moment' ... Tizzard has Thistlecrack, Cue Card and Native River to send to the Gold Cup and barring injury, that is where they'll be running! A trainer like Tizzard or the owners of the horses won't turn down the opportunity.
 
gjt7756 said:
To be honest I think traditions are going out the window more and more each season especially when it comes to age, the grand national being a good example, used to look for a solid 10 year old with experience over fences, now they are 7/8 year olds with the fresher legs, also look at Djakadam in the last two gold cups finishing 2nd at the age of 6 and 7, and not to forget coneygree winning at the age of 8, thistlecrack has to be a gold cup horse
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Great Point. Djakadam only coming into his prime as a staying chaser.
 
The trends followers will be out to get Djakam won't they. Ground went against him last year in my opinion. Was with him the year before though, swings and roundabouts
 
gjt7756 said:
To be honest I think traditions are going out the window more and more each season especially when it comes to age, the grand national being a good example, used to look for a solid 10 year old with experience over fences, now they are 7/8 year olds with the fresher legs, also look at Djakadam in the last two gold cups finishing 2nd at the age of 6 and 7, and not to forget coneygree winning at the age of 8, thistlecrack has to be a gold cup horse
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The National is a race I spend a fair bit of time over gjt and I think more and more you're looking for an older experienced stayer.
The modified fences allow the horses to go quicker which means stamina come into play even more than it did previously, generally speaking you'll only get that with age.
When they changed the fences a few years ago the first three winners of the National that followed were 11 year olds, Rule the World was a bit of a trends buster last year though it's interesting to note that having won on debut over 2m he was immediately upped to 3m for his second race so they always thought stamina was his forte and Many Clouds was an exceptionally class horse when becoming just the 6th (5th maybe) 8yo to win the race in the last 50 years.

Trends are forever evolving and as conditions change in races they become harder to predict.
 
Don Cossack is set to go back into training next month in the hope he has made a full recovery from injury.

However, should Gordon Elliott not be entirely happy with how the nine-year-old takes to being back in work, he will not hesitate in retiring him.

At the moment, Elliott reports the recuperation to be going swimmingly with Don Cossack undergoing regular road work.

The horse, owned by Gigginstown House Stud, was last seen winning the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup in March. He subsequently suffered a tendon injury when being prepared for the Bibby Financial Services Ireland Punchestown Gold Cup in April.

"He's going into his sixth week on the roads having roadwork and the scans have been very good. I saw him last Sunday week and the legs felt good," the County Meath trainer told At The Races.

"When a horse gets a ligament injury it's day by day, but it seems to be going good and we'll have back here at Cullentra in the next two or three weeks and it's all systems go.

"We're under no illusions. If he's not 120 per cent right at this stage, we'll retire him.

"He's been a wonderful horse, so we'll do the best thing for the horse."
 
Morning Glory said:
"We're under no illusions. If he's not 120 per cent right at this stage, we'll retire him.

"He's been a wonderful horse, so we'll do the best thing for the horse."
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Will detract MASSIVELY if the reigning champion doesn't line up make it. Coneygree's absence this year was such a shame, I hope we don't get robbed twice in a row!
 
Tizzard on Thistlecrack today:

The ground in the west country is not good at all, it's hard, he said.

The last thing we want to do is have a setback on that ground.

The idea is to run Thistlecrack in two novice chases before Christmas, then maybe Kempton for the Feltham and Cheltenham on Trials Day. He will then hopefully meet Cue Card in the Gold Cup.

Winning that race is a lifetime ambition. It's our aim but it won't be easy at all.
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jono said:
Tizzard on Thistlecrack today:
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My instinct was thats a busy schedule for a Gold Cup horse but maybe not ?

Don Cossack had two races in October then 1 in Dec and 1 in Jan.

Coneygree had 3 runs before March.

Lord Windermere 5

Bobs Worth 1

Synchronised 3.
 
My instinct was thats a busy schedule for a Gold Cup horse but maybe not ?
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Thanks for those run breakdowns. It's obviously the same problem Coneygree had when he had 3 runs but the issue Tizzard has is trying to get enough experience and runs into the horse being a novice, whilst still keeping him fresh enough to be in peak condition come March. You don't want to be taking on any of the big boys on your fences debut or even your second run really. But then it's also vital to be tested against at least second season + chasers at some point too. So with that being said I think he needs to have a minimum of 3 runs at least so i'm not concerned by 4
 
Thistlecrack has a different profile to any previous contender as it is done so rarely so I wouldn't want to get myself hung up on trends like that anyway. Tizzard won the WH with him, and got CC in contention to win the million pound bonus... no horse in my lifetime has anywhere near the same profile so I'll just take it as it comes. His price will contract for the GC (rightly or wrongly) and people will oppose him based on that right until the day.
 
^ Iris's Gift is the last World Hurdle winner to even run in the Gold Cup so his profile is unusual. We could have two this year with MoT.

My Way De Solzen had a World Hurdle and Arkle under his belt at start of 2007/8 season but struggled.
 
Thanks MG ... iris gift is out of my immediate radar.

I am/was a big MoT fan and not one I'll dismiss either... what was the rain for the poor RSA? Was it bleeding?
 
Djakadam at 16/1 is too big. Target is now declared and has placed twice in this race. Not a usual profile for a horse running in this race for the 3rd time as he started out younger than most do and there COULD be some improvement for that.

The way this market is poised he can only get shorter! If as few as 1 or more of these happen: Thistlecrack gets reverted to World Hurdle, Don Cossack retires, Vautour beaten in the KG looking a non stayer, Cue Card not showing the same spark at 10 going 11, Coneygree not looking the same as before the injury and Douvan running over 2 miles .... then 16/1 is going to look tremendous. I can't see the price getting bigger, and would be amazed if at least a few from higher in the betting didn't drop out before Christmas, never mind after.
 
Even if all of the above happens, I still can't see Djakadam winning the gold cup. He's had 2 chances, the first of which was a weak renewal in my opinion. He is just below top class to my mind and will run another solid race without winning.
 
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