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2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

We shouldn't be surprised with Coneygree's effort, I thought it was a very good performance and he will come on a bundle for that.
Connections should be applauded for giving him such a competitive re-introduction, they could have found a soft 3 runner target for him where he wins in a hack canter but they went for a tough G1, hats off to them and I would expect them to be delighted with that run.
As for the Gold Cup, I'd be more inclined to back Coneygree than Cue Card but that's cost I'm a trends man, I love Cue Card and don't think he's ever had the plaudits he deserves, I had the lot on him last year despite the trends and I'm convinced he would have won but this isn't a 3m 2f flat race and they have to be jumped.
At 12 it would be a massive trends buster and I can't back him now at 7s.
Interesting Coneygree's price has stayed around the same, I think the bookies are underestimating the difficulty of coming back after such a lay off and not recognising that performance for what it was, that said, with such a fragile horse so much could go wrong over the next 4 months you'd want a decent price he makes it there....
 
Coneygree can;t be an ante-post punt for me because of the fragile factor AND the ground. If he was the price he is now on the day, it'd be because the ground was good ... if it is softer, he'd go off shorter... but if you took the price now, you're bascially having a punt on the weather.

On trends Ista, who do you like? They must rule out (I assume) Thistle (hurdler,novice), Cue Card (Age), Djakadam (Already not won twice), Don Cossack (age) ... Coneygree I can't imagine would be a trend horse because he certainly wouldn't have been the year he won it? Valsuer Lido (No course wins)....

I reckon, Blaklion?
 
Kev - you won't be getting 341/1 for the Cue Card triple crown. The bookies will settle your bet at a much shorter price. Unfortunately they have something called related contingency, where the outcome of one event directly effects the odds of a related event. E.g if cue cards win the betfair he is no longer a 7/1 shot for the King George, therefore you can't just stick them in a direct multiple.

I wish you could though!!
 
It won't be winning anyway so I'm not too concerned haha.

Not all bookies let you place the bet for that reason though (I know PP won't for certain) I obviously haven't bothered to read through the T&Cs though, I can see their logic.
 
Have to agree Isty, I thought Coneygree put up a super show under the circumstances. His jumping looked like that of a tired horse over the last few fences but he still finished well clear of some decent benchmarks, pretty impressive on the first run back, and in a pre race interview with the Bradstocks they said his prep wasn't as complete as they would have liked because they haven't galloped him on grass, if he comes on like he should for his next race I think the current prices could start to look huge
 
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Its an interesting one that acca kev, Ive been paid out on some before for small amounts but Ive had a decent payout refused. So chose not to do them now, I think from memory one of the firms that paid me out was SJ but it was the place part, I think it was Long Run to win the KG and then win the Gold Cup. If it lands you might get lucky. I wish you luck certainly.
 
Kevloaf, trends will be tough this year for this race.
Nothing wrong with Coneygree's profile if he makes it there in one piece, Blaklion would hit a few but his performance in the Charlie Hall didn't strike me as a stepping stone to the blue ribband, and he was chinned at Aintree too so maybe last years RSA is a poor guide ?
Maybe we should be looking at the JLT, Black Hercules not seen out since but heading for Punchestown in December.
I'll throw a real curve ball in there too, Native River would hit a few trends and looks to be Tizzards third string but I think you'd get a run if he was to take his chance....
 
I've got loads of questions about trends... (I'm sure you'll take this first one in the manner it is intended, which is not to knock the theory at all)

If the RSA is usually a strong guide for the Gold Cup, then if you do follow the trends, your opinion on the level of form shouldn't matter... you either like the trend, and back it, or don't. If the Aintree form and Charlie Hall weren't strong, surely that helps the price and it'd still be an appealing bet? I guess it depends how many trends you have to look at?
 
Fair point kevloaf, what you say is correct, but given the passing of time we have the opportunity to review more information and Blaklions two subsequent efforts have been disappointing (for me), so I have to take that into consideration.

The other thing with trends is they evolve all the time, the RSA used to be the best guide for the following years Gold Cup because it was the only staying novices chase at the festival, the JLT has been going what 5, 6, 7 years now, so will start to have an influence but there isn't enough data yet.
It'll be some time before we get any strong trends on a number of festival races because of the increase in races, and at some point they'll add a 2m 4f/2m 5f G1 hurdle race then the trends take another turn....
 
I think it is a bit like trainer form, in the context that by the time you realise a trend / good form, it is too late to capitalise on.

Do you use trends as a guide or would you catogorically not back a horse if it didn't hit 'enough' trends...?

*Having only really been in to racing for about 7 years, even now I'd be really disappointed to see a grade 1 hurdle race over that trip... Far too many short price runners as it is at Cheltenham.
 
Only a guide kevloaf, I might still back Cue Card (did last year) despite there being no winner over 10 since the 60s !!!
 
The weight trends are becoming less relevant too, some of the handicaps are so compressed now there's only a few lb between top and bottom, so be wary of that
 
I was very strong on Coneygree winning the Betfair on Saturday and I think he ran a fantastic race and not surprised that connections are pleased, he was just beaten by a brilliant horse. His jumping was on point and it doesn't look like the injury has affected his ability to jump a fence so well. When watching the race live I thought he lacked a bit of his old spark - although he led from the front for much of the way it felt like he wasn't able to build up a strong lead, it always felt like his challengers were close enough by. If i'm honest I think I clearly underestimated the significance of coming back into such a hot looking grade 1 (having ran well fresh from injury previously). I usually avoid horses first time back after long injury lay offs and have countless examples of past races that should have taught me better. That being said having watched the race again...

What a performance by Cue Card!! For me that was his best run of his career and for it to come at 10 years of age is pretty astonishing when you also consider some of the fantastic performances he has put in over his career so far. The race may not have had the steller line up of the King George last year in Vautour, Don Cossack and co but I don't think ANY horse would have beaten him at Haydock this day he was that good. Come 4 out he loomed alongside Coneygree and just tanked past him full of running and put the race to bed in a matter of strides.

After his Ryanair victory and running a very gallant second to Sprinter Sacre at Aintree I thought the horse could be a superstar and backed him continuously the following season when it all went wrong for the horse (just think if he had of had the breathing op that 14/15 season what may have been) From then on I had kind of written the horse off despite what he did last season, always finding others to back (Conti in the Betfair, Vautour in the KG, Don Poli in the GC). Now at the prices for the Gold Cup (best price 6/1) I feel like i've also missed the boat on Cue Card this time but he should be the favourite for this that's for sure and wouldn't doubt anyone backing him still. Having doubted the horse far too much in the past I'm reluctant to use his age as the reason why he cannot win - especially as for me he has just put up a career best performance at the weekend and looks as good as ever.

It's been mentioned by a few pundits over the last few days - Tizzard could find himself in a slightly awkward position of Cue Card winning the King George and then going up against his stablemate Thistlecrack who may deny him the £1 million bonus.

ps. Have to say I'm amazed the Bradstock's are so bullish on turning the form around with Cue Card, it's good to see confidence but after that display from Cue Card I think you're clutching at straws on that outcome, and that's coming from a big Coneygree fan.
 
I too was bullish about Coneygree winning the Betfair Jono, and was impressed with Cue Cards run, I feel that Coneygree (all things being well) will make it a sterner test if they meet again (KG and GC). He drew it out of the others and still managed 2nd (not sure how you'd measure the others form) when I say sterner, I mean he'll be race fit and hopefully the ground won't be as wet and heavy as it was by what was said, I know he likes soft, but I think he'll be fine on good to soft ( hope to get it in the GC) I expect it to be much closer with them both next time they meet
 
I definitely agree paz that it'll be closer - a lot closer than 15 lengths thats for sure. Just look at Cue Card on his first run - horses especially when they get to 9/10 plus they very often need that first run and we've seen just how much Cue Card improved after his. I also think Haydock is the perfect track for Cue Card where as Coneygree is best suited to a more testing track but I do struggle to see the form being turned around. I think it'll take both Coneygree to improve AND Cue Card to regress for that to happen
 
Tizzard and connections aren't likely to avoid Cue Card even if he is on for the bonus. Thistlecracks owners want to win the Gold Cup, and probably don't care whether CC wins a million or not. I don't think Tizzard, if he had the 1-2 in the betting, would sacrifice one, just in case he wins the Gold Cup and loses out on a million... I think they'll both turn up, with Native River too!
 
Yeah I definitely don't think Tizzard is the kind of trainer who would divert a horse just do they don't have to take eachother on. I really enjoy his attitude actually and over the last couple of years have taken more notice of him and pleased he's getting more ammunition to work with. I just think it could make an interesting story into the race come the Friday of the festival. End of the day a 1-2 of Thistlecrack, Cue Card would bring in approx £400,000 so connections would hardly be short of money with that outcome :highly_amused:
 
Apart from Mullins, there aren't many high profile examples of this I can think of.... you don't need to go back too far to see Nicholls running Denman and Kauto! Famously Dickenson had the first 5 home, Gigginstown run more than one, as done JP ...

They'll both run.
 
Kevloaf said:
Apart from Mullins, there aren't many high profile examples of this I can think of.... you don't need to go back too far to see Nicholls running Denman and Kauto! Famously Dickenson had the first 5 home, Gigginstown run more than one, as done JP ...

They'll both run.
Click to expand...

Actually, Mullins occasionally does, it's just Ricci that won't have it....
 
Istabraq said:
Actually, Mullins occasionally does, it's just Ricci that won't have it....
Click to expand...

Yeh good point, was a bit tunnel vision then, but it all adds to the overall point.
 
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