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2017 Champion Hurdle

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 4957
  • Start date Start date
loveracing said:
Apples Jade for me. :encouragement:
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I have noticed a change of attitude from Elliott in regards to her targets when recently asked. For much of the season it was categorically going for the Mares races, now it's let's wait and see.

If either she or VVM run in this (i'm on the basis they don't and they run against eachother in the Mares) then the 7lb allowance could make all the difference
 
I wouldn't make any money if Yanworth won the CH but I am certainly worried about him. I do like the way that even though he was off the bridle he did put a good biut of distance between himself and TNO at Kempton and yesterday at the 1/2 furlong pole he was with Chtbello and by the line he has gone on and BG has stopped riding him.

It is interesting that Yanworth did all of his winning on the bridle last year, and is much more used to being in a battle now. With the CH being run at a stronger pace, I think his cruising speed will be essential and is a tool that some of the other contenders don't have. He doesn't have the turn of foot in the sense that he can just flick a switch, but he does seem to have the gears to move away from whatever he is upsides after the last?

If Petit Mouchoir makes the running, you can see Yanworth being ridden very prominantly and I think Buveur may look like he is going to come past him and not manage it.

I still haven't got a strong fancy, and do keep finding myself drawn to Buveur BUT I am put off by how battle hardened he may be? If he isn't (which I've seen little to no evidence for) then he'd need to be different class to these, and 3rd in that supreme doesn't give him that status. If last year Yanworth, Yorkhill, Altior, Min and Buveur D'air had all gone for the Supreme, that Buveur D'air wouldn't have been 5th? Doesn't mean he should be ruled out by any means but I don't think he is a worthy fav based on a bridle victory. You would HAVE to have Petit Mouchoir right there in the mix if you like Buveur D'air...

... Petit Mouchior is very closely matched from Aintree with Buveur, and has had a much much much better prep this time round, picking up two grade 1s. You can knock the form, but you can with all of the other horses... I feel like PM is not a sexy pick, whereas the JP colours are and if I hadn't already, I think I'd come down on Yanworth and PM before I backed Buveur D'air.

Interesting comments regarding Superb Story jono, and I do like the logic behind it. If SKelton feels SS is a better horse than Chit, 16s NRNB is over priced for SS< especially with as a previous festival winner.


I'm trying to seperate my personal book and who I think will win the race seperate for the time-being for the purpose of the discussion... when I work out who is going to win, I can adjust accordingly :very_drunk:
 
If Petit Mouchoir makes the running, you can see Yanworth being ridden very prominantly and I think Buveur may look like he is going to come past him and not manage it.
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That certainly wouldn't surprise me. Buveur i'm sure will look like he's cruising through the race with Barry motionless on the horse but it's what he can product when push comes to shove that we just don't really know and again makes me question why such a ride last time. Will Geraghty's choice on who to ride on the day effect your personal view?

You would HAVE to have Petit Mouchoir right there in the mix if you like Buveur D'air... I feel like PM is not a sexy pick, whereas the JP colours are and if I hadn't already
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Without me purposely doing it you're probably right in regards to Geraghty/JP Colours are swaying me to at least look towards Buveur more so than Petit Mouchoir. I can't quite give solid reasoning to why I don't fancy the horse but I just have my doubts. Like you say 2 grade 1 wins in key trials is hard to knock, especially the 7 length beating of NC in December. I do think the Irish challenge is weaker than the English overall in the race. He has however had the benefit of coming over here for the Fighting Fifth and If you were to literally take Sceau Royal being 6 lengths back in 4th (PM led at the last so would have been close to Irving) it could read better than yesterdays 2.5L by Yanworth.

It's more just a hunch on PM and I could very well be wrong. I have to give him the benefit of more than 1 run at the track but he didn't seem to act at the track in the Supreme last year imo and I question whether an undulating track like Cheltenham suits, instead more of a galloping/flat track ala Aintree/Leopardstown
 
Yeah I agree with you, it makes Buveur D'Air's last run odd.

I think Barry will be leaving the decision as late as he possibly can, and it'll be ground dependant? (and fitness of Yanworth?) I'd say good ground Yanworth, soft ground Buveur D'air..... "good to soft" officially I think Yanworth still. *edit, although Yanworth is probably better on soft?) He knows him in a battle, has ridden him more times and knows he stays further. Barry was the benefactor when AP picked MTOY and I don't think that'll be lost on Barry or the market... I can certainly see JP having the 1st and 2nd fav on the day. (Yanworth to shorten to fav, BDA to stay where he is)

There might be some logic to not liking PM, trainer and owners are not at all well known for targetting the race and his Supreme run last year would have you worrying (as you eluded to). I am a fan of Nichols Canyon and PM has won key trials in Ireland. When Dodging Bullets was doing that (winning key trials), he ended up winning the CC much to my shock and since then I've always tried to take stop making excuses about why a horse was "lucky" or didn't deserve a grade 1 and work the other way, trying to see why the others can reach that level?

I couldn't tell you now what I would back if the race was today. I see the logic in people having flyers at big prices when that is the case for sure. Horses that have "been there and done it" and so on... MTOY is getting mentions for example. I expect something to be younger and improving past him, so I wouldn't have him on my shortlist, but at big prices you can't knock anyone can you.

I am not keen on Brain Power still, but I haven't got anything logical backing that up either... other than he now looks "too short" which is a terrible reason not to fancy a horse to win (albeit a decent enough reason to think it isn't worth a bet).
 
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Talk of Sutton Place being supplemented for this if he wins well today.
 
My worry for yanworth is his jumping. The CH will be a fast pace as usual. I can see yanworth to far back with his poor jumping having to get through tired horses up the hill. He'll then be classed as an unlucky loser.
 
doctorwu said:
My worry for yanworth is his jumping. The CH will be a fast pace as usual. I can see yanworth to far back with his poor jumping having to get through tired horses up the hill. He'll then be classed as an unlucky loser.
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Can't disagree... certainly isn't a positive. I am not sure I have seen him actually lose much ground at his hurdles though? Very hard to gauge. Despite yesterday I feel myself warming to him as the most likely winner.
 
Sutton Place

Sutton Place

Talk of Sutton Place being supplemented for this if he wins well today.[/QUOTE said:
When asked if he could be supplemented for one of the races in Cheltenham, Elliott added: "No, definitely not.":grumpy:

From Sporting Life.
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MAybe saved for JP at Aintree, had absolutely no trouble with the trip. Best work at the end?
 
Kevloaf said:
MAybe saved for JP at Aintree, had absolutely no trouble with the trip. Best work at the end?
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Yes it's a real shame not going to Cheltenham with those wins at Navan & Naas, the undulations & up hill finish would have played to his strengths . Never mind, hopefully Aintree like you say.
 
Stayed really well but jumped like a dog.

Similar to Bleu Et Rouge a couple runs back?
 
loveracing said:
Stayed really well but jumped like a dog.

Similar to Bleu Et Rouge a couple runs back?
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True loveracing, but with how open it is this year thought it might be worth a crack. talking of cracks, lots of cracks appearing this year in various races!
 
Thought after yesterday's trial Yanworth had little chance, then I looked at the other contenders............

I was looking through Brain Power's form. Do we think he is better going right handed?
 
Mytentoryours1 said:
Thought after yesterday's trial Yanworth had little chance, then I looked at the other contenders............

I was looking through Brain Power's form. Do we think he is better going right handed?
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I haven't seen anyone knocking Brain Power on anything but his price yet. Got beaten 20L last time he went to Chelt... missed his latest engagement .... I am not on, and I am in the camp of hoping he isn't good enough! I missed the price (classic cliche) and I can't back him at 7/1, so I am looking for the negatives.
 
i had an awesome dream the other night that Douvan got supplemented for this, won it on the bridle, at a cantor and then came out on wednesday smashed the CC field to pieces. Willie comes on and says lets go for the hat trick after these 2 schooling sessions. comes out on thursday in the ryanair gets the hattrick and goes down in history.......

end of dream and what a dream it was :triumphant:
 
If you sort this race by the ratings on RP the market has it all wrong. Apples Jade wins.
 
Yeehaa said:
If you sort this race by the ratings on RP the market has it all wrong. Apples Jade wins.
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Spot on Yeehaa - it makes no sense why she is 20/1 nrnb, while VVM is 10/1.

Is GE looking to have no runners at all in the CH, let alone the highest rated?
 
loveracing said:
Spot on Yeehaa - it makes no sense why she is 20/1 nrnb, while VVM is 10/1.

Is GE looking to have no runners at all in the CH, let alone the highest rated?
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:encouragement: I cannot tell you how happy I would be to see AJ line up in this, with VVM.

Let Limini win the Mares against nothing and no-one will care. Add VVM and AJ to the current CH field and without any stars it would be a fantastic race to watch!
 
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