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2017 Champion Hurdle

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 4957
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Yes Kev, wasn't it the Christmas hurdle his last run before champion hurdle ?
11 weeks is not ideal but not a patch on 15 months....
 
Yeah I believe so.

Can't argue that he is one to take on from a betting point of view.... you don't make money backing short priced favs that are coming back from a 12 month plus lay off....

Heart will rule my head though for that race. I do think Faugheen CAN do it too... but I won't be getting rich even if he does...
 
Zipiter said:
Im considering Jezki too. Im not convinced that Faugheen will be turning up. Petit M in my opinion isnt a CH contender on todays performance. He looked tired on the run in. A CH run at pace, as it usually is, and he wont figure.

JP has UKWIMH in the stayers, the fancied winner by many. Would he pitch Jezki in with Yanworth???

Jezki is the class animal and at 9 could be vulnerable to a young improver but...he was fairly impressive on his return albeit over further.

Lets look at the betting (using bet365).....if fav Faugheen is out (if its a muscle injury I believe he is), Min unlikely to run here....Yorkhill most likely aimed at the JLT and its anyone's guess where Vroom Vroom heads to (i believe not here anyway). That leaves Petit M Yanworth and Jezki.
If the race does fall apart like this 10-1 Jezki could seem like a cracker!

Jessie H wants him to run in the Red Mills over 2 miles next. Id like to be on before he wins that :)
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Feet first....
14-1 with William Hill....nrnb or free bet if in a different race.


Is that money I see on the road there...... ;)
 
Petit Mouchoir 13/2 with Betfair. Never been a massive fan of the horse but last two performances have been really impressive. Any value in that?
 
Mytentoryours1 said:
Petit Mouchoir 13/2 with Betfair. Never been a massive fan of the horse but last two performances have been really impressive. Any value in that?
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If you look at the positive stats in isolation, yes. On a line through Nichols Canyon who placed last year he'd be placed at least... he is the best 2 miler in Ireland we've seen this season. The UK form is headed by a horse who was beaten at Cheltenham last year and you know the target is certain.

I won't go in to negatives.
 
Zipiter said:
Feet first....
14-1 with William Hill....nrnb or free bet if in a different race.


Is that money I see on the road there...... ;)
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Max £25 .... are you going each way? I can't see him winning it, ... but £25 (£12.50 EW) would only get £47.50 back if he did place, and with Yanworth, PM and Faugheen ahead of him in the betting, less than evens about him isn't the most rock solid odds on chance I can think of?


Not knocking your bet, just trying to talk myself out of following you in. :highly_amused: got enough covered already!
 
Kevloaf said:
Max £25 .... are you going each way? I can't see him winning it, ... but £25 (£12.50 EW) would only get £47.50 back if he did place, and with Yanworth, PM and Faugheen ahead of him in the betting, less than evens about him isn't the most rock solid odds on chance I can think of?


Not knocking your bet, just trying to talk myself out of following you in. :highly_amused: got enough covered already!
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Horse racing is all about opinion and here is mine:

I cant see Faugheen making the race. If he isnt 100% fit Mullins wont even run him. Hes coming back off a serious injury from a year ago. No prep race (possible Red Mills entry if ready) and a recent setback. Even if he does make the race its a tough call to come back with no prep race, after an injury and over a year off and come out and win a Champion Hurdle.

If Jezki does go to the Champion Hurdle I dont think Yanworth will. Maybe switch to stayers or kept for Aintree. Aside from that he has had 3 trips to Cheltenham and only won 1 and that was on heavy ground. With the ground usually good come March even if he did run I wouldnt be having him with that record.

Petit Mouchoir posted a good time in Leopardstown the last day but Cheltenham is a different course and he looked to be slowing from the last with Footpad closing. How will he tackle the hill? Previous Cheltenham form (last years Supreme) had him 8th and flattening out from 2 out and staying on at the same pace. Not for me either.

So....
if Jezki does turn up Im willing to take a win bet at 14-1 that he regains his crown after a very pleasing comeback. Ill be eager to watch his run in the Red Mills.
 
I can't see them switching Yanworth and Jezki in any circumstance. Jezki has grade 1 form over 3m, Yanworth has never tried the trip.

If Jezki was thought of as better than Yanworth then the CH would be set in stone for him anyway, and I don't think that is the case. If he wanted a second runner in the stayers he could send Kotkikova for it so wouldn't need to remove the 2nd fav in the betting for the CH? I suppose I COULD see Barry opting to ride Jezki instead (which would be a great sign) but I think that takes a leap of faith at this stage?

I will also be eagerly watching the Red Mills, because if he wins that looking like the Jezki of old, I'd be eating my hat and wishing I'd taken 14s. There is potential for Jezki to be fav for the race if a lot of things went right (Faugheen out, Barry decides to ride him, Scintilating win in the Red Mills) but even then I'd expect something to improve past him. I also think people have gone over board about his return. A 1 and 3/4 defeat of Renetti, getting 6 lbs? It wasn't like it was on the bridle... he looked like he was out staying rather than turn of foot - more suited to further in his old age.

I am still going to resist... maybe I will look a fool on Red Mills day :p


**edit - you know what, I can't resist. 14/1 is too big, win only** you win :encouragement:
 
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Buveur D'Air has entries in the Arkle, JLT and Champion Hurdle and Henderson told his StanJames blog: "He'll run on Saturday at Sandown, which may tell us more, but I'm not ruling anything in or out. He has the entry in the Champion Hurdle for a reason and I'm very open on this one."

He added: "Top Notch is going to run in the Scilly Isles as well and is entered in everything at Cheltenham, from the Champion Hurdle down to the Arkle including the JLT. His confidence is sky high and we should probably stay over fences but he has lots of options."

Arkle for Altior

At the same time, Henderson poured cold water on any suggestion that Arkle favourite Altior could deviate from that path. "Some people have suggested Altior might be considered for the Champion Hurdle now Annie Power is out, and there’s only one answer to that question – no. He isn't even entered in the race and the Arkle is still very much the plan," he said.
 
Buveur D'Air to be targeted here
 
Is that confirmed Ryan? I'm sure he's got a novice chase entry this weekend, alongside the hurdle entry.
 
Leman14 said:
Confirmed by Nicky Henderson himself - has shortened to 6/1!
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Wow that is short... I took 16/1 NRNB with Racebets on Sunday night .... thanks to OV I think!
 
The market seems to be taking shape now, although I do think that he would have a few pounds to find on Yanworth??

Does he really have a realistic chance? Good novice hurdle form beating Petit Mouchoir at Aintree and 3rd behind Altior at Chelt.

What does everyone think of his chances??
 
He's shorter than I thought he'd be but I can see him running very well. He was never really put in the supreme but finished the race really well, coming up the hill better than Min.

In a weak looking Champion, i think he deserves his place. Saturday will tell us more.
 
Interesting to see which one Barry Geraghty will ride
Yanworth or Buveur d'air ? Maybe Jezki if he turns up

Yanworth surely
 
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