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2017 Champion Hurdle

Fair enough Kev, in regards to Yanworth beating TNO I think it helped a lot that MTOY was in the race and it felt to me like he was there to set the race up for Yanworth to win, would Yanworth have that luxury in March?
 
Old Vic said:
I have taken 12s nrnb with 365.
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ON Buevuer D'air - His Neck beating of Petit Mouchoir reads quite well from last season, as PM has now got 2 Grade 1 hurdles to his name... not an ideal prep though going over fences most of the season?

33/1 without the concession ... and 20s with WH's "free bet refund"...

No idea which of those is most attractive?
 
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ryanh97 said:
Fair enough Kev, in regards to Yanworth beating TNO I think it helped a lot that MTOY was in the race and it felt to me like he was there to set the race up for Yanworth to win, would Yanworth have that luxury in March?
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I think they would certainly run another horse if they felt they needed to... but I don't think they'll need to? Yanworth needs a strong pace to run off and I've not watched a CH without that being the case yet.

MTOY could be put in though again and in all honesyy with UNWIMH looking solid, could they put Jezki in and try to make all, with the bonus that it'd set it up for a horse like Yanworth too...

Not saying Jezki is a bad bet at all... could see him running in to a place if he did turn up... I just can't see him winning.



I suppose I could have actually just compared Yanworth and Jezki to MTOY, as they've both ridden against MTOY... just looks like MTOY has gone backwards, but Jezki still has to prove he retains all his ability for him to be ahead of Yanworth, let alone anything else to win this.
 
I'd like to see Jezki run again before I backed him in either market to be honest, is there any likelihood of him running again before the Fes?
 
Im considering Jezki too. Im not convinced that Faugheen will be turning up. Petit M in my opinion isnt a CH contender on todays performance. He looked tired on the run in. A CH run at pace, as it usually is, and he wont figure.

JP has UKWIMH in the stayers, the fancied winner by many. Would he pitch Jezki in with Yanworth???

Jezki is the class animal and at 9 could be vulnerable to a young improver but...he was fairly impressive on his return albeit over further.

Lets look at the betting (using bet365).....if fav Faugheen is out (if its a muscle injury I believe he is), Min unlikely to run here....Yorkhill most likely aimed at the JLT and its anyone's guess where Vroom Vroom heads to (i believe not here anyway). That leaves Petit M Yanworth and Jezki.
If the race does fall apart like this 10-1 Jezki could seem like a cracker!

Jessie H wants him to run in the Red Mills over 2 miles next. Id like to be on before he wins that :)
 
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Interesting regarding PM ..... I read his time was a lot better than Melons (6 seconds - about 30 lengths) and Footpad was ridden to close Kevin Blake said Jacob gave him a cracking ride that flattered a bit?


They'd decided he was no longer a 2 miler when he was running over 3m before his injury. I just can't see him coming back and being BETTER than he was before. Even if he got back to the same level as he was, that shouldn't be good enough to win the race...
 
Kevloaf said:
Interesting regarding PM ..... I read his time was a lot better than Melons (6 seconds - about 30 lengths) and Footpad was ridden to close Kevin Blake said Jacob gave him a cracking ride that flattered a bit?


They'd decided he was no longer a 2 miler when he was running over 3m before his injury. I just can't see him coming back and being BETTER than he was before. Even if he got back to the same level as he was, that shouldn't be good enough to win the race...
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PM = another Gigginstown case of WM favouring another owner.

Don Poli looks a decent bet now in the GC.
 
What do you mean LR?

PM ran in the Supreme and at Aintree (just beaten by Buveur D'air)? What races would he have been in differently so far? Do you mean he wouldn't have win the grade 1s that he has? I'd not be too sure of that, he had Faugheen, NC and Footpad all confirmed today. Bleu Et Rouge and Royal Caviar and so on? (I might have missed your point)....

I'm surprised at PM's improvement with HdB ... over hurdles especially!
 
Kevloaf said:
What do you mean LR?

PM ran in the Supreme and at Aintree (just beaten by Buveur D'air)? What races would he have been in differently so far? Do you mean he wouldn't have win the grade 1s that he has? I'd not be too sure of that, he had Faugheen, NC and Footpad all confirmed today. Bleu Et Rouge and Royal Caviar and so on? (I might have missed your point)....

I'm surprised at PM's improvement with HdB ... over hurdles especially!
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I meant the WM Gigginstown horses could have done a lot better last year if were in different hands or more TLC.
 
Kevloaf said:
What do you mean LR?

PM ran in the Supreme and at Aintree (just beaten by Buveur D'air)? What races would he have been in differently so far? Do you mean he wouldn't have win the grade 1s that he has? I'd not be too sure of that, he had Faugheen, NC and Footpad all confirmed today. Bleu Et Rouge and Royal Caviar and so on? (I might have missed your point)....

I'm surprised at PM's improvement with HdB ... over hurdles especially!
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Sorry double post.
 
My take on this race is that Mullins/Ricci had the plan all along to get Faugheen ready for this race without a prep. It will be his final swansong before being retired IMO. His injury clearly has held him back, and risk flaring it up again this would be his one and only target all along. Just my opinion and the way I see it, may be well wrong come the day!
 
I'd be shocked if any championship race is won by a horse without a prep run, you need a combination of match fitness and adequate rest from exertions.
I'm sure one of the strong trends in this race is to avoid horses who have not run in the same calendar year...
 
When it comes to stats/trends I would normally take note, but when the best are concerned sometimes those stats/trends are broken.

I agree, it's not going to be easy for him, but I never said he'd win, I just think Mullins/Ricci had this planned out all along. It's a tough ask, but weak (IMO) opposition, so who knows.
 
I wont be anywhere near Faugheen if hes shorter than 2/1, which he will be, its too short for me to take on a horse I havent seen for what'll be 400 days. That being said, in terms of the stats and trends - history is there to be broken!
 
Mullins is shrewd though CorD,he knows how hard it is to win a festival race and how that becomes so much harder without the ideal prep, if he can't get a run into Faugheen I think he'll hold him back for Aintree/Punchestown, could be wrong....
 
Some talk in Leopardstown of giving Faugheen a prep run in the red mills if they can get him ready
 
It will be very interesting if they do manage to run him in the Red Mills, Ricci seemed keen on it, Mullins less so.
 
Agree on all fronts that Buveur D'air should be in this and abandon any chasing plans.

If he and Yanworth go for this together, they bring the very best novice form of 2016 that is available.

Min, Yorkhill and Altior all gone chasing, Faugheen not sighted and Annie out. They'd be barmy not to, wouldn't they?
 
Istabraq said:
I'd be shocked if any championship race is won by a horse without a prep run, you need a combination of match fitness and adequate rest from exertions.
I'm sure one of the strong trends in this race is to avoid horses who have not run in the same calendar year...
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Faugheen was a HUGE trend buster the first time wasn't he? P2P, winning over 3m? No prep in calendar year?


Will be a huge feat.... I am on Faugheen in some multiples but most we're coupled with Annie Power.... so from a personal pocket point of view I'd be much better off for him not to run.... HOWEVER.... I will be cheering him on regardless, because he is an absolute superstar and it would be one of the greatest performances of all time.
 
Al Ferof said:
Agree on all fronts that Buveur D'air should be in this and abandon any chasing plans.

If he and Yanworth go for this together, they bring the very best novice form of 2016 that is available.

Min, Yorkhill and Altior all gone chasing, Faugheen not sighted and Annie out. They'd be barmy not to, wouldn't they?
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Racebets are now 16/1 NRNB ..... don't think many will have an account with them... but better than the 12s with 365?
 
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