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2017 Champion Chase

  • Thread starter Thread starter Morning Glory
  • Start date Start date
I did like the RP piece today, saying that the 4/1 Douvan went quickly and bookies were running for cover before settling at 4/6, Mullins said no decision had been made on Douvans next race.
I'd be nothing short of staggered if Douvan didn't land in Esher this weekend....
 
I did like the RP piece today, saying that the 4/1 Douvan went quickly and bookies were running for cover before settling at 4/6, Mullins said no decision had been made on Douvans next race.
I'd be nothing short of staggered if Douvan didn't land in Esher this weekend....

"Willie wont he" has started early this year ;)
 
Well I wasn't expecting that, last I checked yesterday Douvan was 3/1 for the TC, then he was odds on shortly after and now his price is coming back out to best price 6/4. I still UDS is quite unlikely to turn up but it seems there is still plenty of uncertainty on whether Douvan lines up. A good article from Tony Calvin on the subject:

He suggests there could be another twist to come and the money that came in for Douvan may have been pretty small

https://betting.betfair.com/horse-r...creek-antepost-betting-douvan-291116-166.html

I started writing this Betfair Tingle Creek assessment on Monday afternoon and then took a pull for 24 hours after the race was re-opened after attracting eight entries at the five-day stage. Those eight still stand, by the way, after no new runners were added to the race on Tuesday morning.

But one thing that immediately struck me as odd yesterday was why in the hell would some bookmakers have priced up Douvan as big as 5/1 for the race?

In fact, why did they price up the contest at all with running plans for a few of the eight - with possible, additional entries still to come after it had been re-opened - up in the air?

To be fair, some books didn't, though curiously they have now. And I would also add that all bookmaker sponsors - in this case Betfair - are pretty much obliged to price up their own races, come what may. It is simply the "done thing" in the industry, for as much marketing and PR purposes for the racing media, as well as the obvious service to their customers.

However, Douvan was always going to be a big odds-on poke if lining up, so why was he available as big as 5/1?

That meant the layers made him a massive price to run, and that was never the case to judge from all reports on Monday. Yes, there were hints, but they always exist in the ante-post arena, so why take the risk?

And even if the books offered 2/1 about Douvan, let alone 5/1, they were always going to be on red alert, anyway.

Surely the crucial point to make is if you price Douvan up at 5/1 all you are going to get is informed money. Or none at all. Or, if the decision is genuinely still 50-50, then informed trading money.

One rumour or hint of attempted interest in the horse - a bet request on the Exchange, or from certain fixed-odds customers - and his price was always going to go into freefall tout suite.

Because, if lining up on Saturday, there isn't an odds-compiler in the country that wouldn't make Douvan more than a 4/7 poke, even if all his seven rivals stand their ground, which they are far from certain to. He is a top-priced 8/11 for the Champion Chase, after all.

His price duly came crashing in on Tuesday morning, with the sponsor's Sportsbook reporting a "flood of money" for the horse, even after cutting him to 11/10 after the first wave of interest.

At the time of writing (1pm), the last traded price for Douvan on the exchange is 1.54 - it suspended, as per usual, at midday when the final five-day field was being finalised - but nothing seems to have changed in the interim as regards information, or running plans for the now-favourite.

The stable still say there has been no decision about whether he or stablemate Un De Sceaux are intended to line up at Sandown. Or indeed either of the pair, although Un De Sceaux, the market-leader on Tuesday morning, has predictably drifted and is now out to 6/1 in places.

It's a curious situation, so why has it come about?

I am sure a lot of people are reading this and saying "aftertimer" and probably a lot worse, in truth - it's alright being wise after events this morning, they'll cry - but I obviously can't do anything about that. I am writing this now, for the reasons I explained above, so live with it.

But what I can add is that it will not have taken a lot of money at all for the 5/1 and 4/1 industry-wide quotes to disappear, though the betting bandwagon effect will undoubtedly have kicked in afterwards at reduced odds, however accurately or wisely, as the Sportsbook have reported.

I don't think you can over-estimate the degree to which all bookmakers watch the Betfair Exchange market like a hawk.

Yes, some may decry the fact that the markets can be illiquid but you can bet your bottom dollar that every bookmaker in the land, and plenty layers overseas, track them religiously for any hint of movement, either in the day-of-race markets or ante-post.

My guess is that the original Douvan move originated on the Exchange, for whatever reason - and the traded volumes are there for you all to see as to how much money it took - and every bookmaker then took evasive action and immediately slashed the horse. And not due to any significant weight of money.

I could be bang wrong here but I think the opening move on Douvan, from 5/1 and 4/1, was probably borne of very little money industry-wide.

And that was the most important move that triggered the then sustained, wider betting interest in the horse - and possibly totally misplaced - that saw odds-on quotes materialise across the board in under two hours.


However, what I would stress is that things can change very quickly in ante-post markets where trainers have more than one entry - Gary Moore has the well-fancied pair of Ar Mad and Sire De Grugy in here, and he has a decision to make, too - and please bear in mind that you will do your money if your selection doesn't rock up.

And I think this may not be the last dramatic move to play out in a now-fascinating Betfair Tingle Creek market, so keep 'em peeled.
 
Its very frustrating with the Douvan thing going on, I was pretty convinced that he wouldnt turn up earlier in the week and was about to have my biggest ew bet of the year on Gods Own at 16/1 3 places, but then the Douvan thing happened and i thought better of it, even though Ricci (who i think will choose his words really carefully this year and as such im happy to believe what hes telling us) had said that Douvan would need a prep to run in the Tingle Creek. Feel a bit deflated by the whole thing really, but for once i dont blame connections of the horse, from what i can see they havent done anything wrong!
 
Feel a bit deflated by the whole thing really, but for once i dont blame connections of the horse, from what i can see they havent done anything wrong!

I do think there are 2 sides to this...

In the main I feel the same. Where as I feel annoyed about the lack of clarity and communication in Annie Power & Faugheen Hattons Grace (i.e no update on how they both are having both had injuries/setbacks so it's their wellbeing rather than just if they run in x race I want to know) Mullins was pretty clearcut in having a few entries and only deciding at the declaration stage - a stance he's used countless times over the years so it can't be surprising to anyone. Both Willie and Ruby (in his blog this week) said that would be when the decision would be made.

On the other side you have his comments today:

"It was an easy enough decision to make, it was probably Un De Sceaux all the time as he's used to travelling to France and the UK, while Douvan is only a novice going into Grade One company against horses who are well used to running in Grade Ones," Mullins told At The Races.

"I had him (Douvan) in the race, but unless he was really sparkling I wasn't going to send him and when I worked him he didn't do enough for me for a big test like that, it's early enough in the season.

So it would have been nice if whilst he gave his quotes earlier on in the week (29th) ...

Hopefully he (Douvan) will be able to run soon. He is entered for both the Tingle Creek and the Hilly Way (Cork, December 11th).

"Un De Sceaux is also in at Sandown so we'll see how things work out this week, but I would imagine Douvan would run in one of the two.

That "it was probably Un De Sceaux all the time"!! :devilish: But we've been here before with Mullins. Billy you raise a good point about Ricci saying Douvan would need a prep to run in the Tingle Creek. I've said a few times I think the yard may be more open this year after Vautour but maybe it'll be Ricci that is rather than Willie/Ruby.

It does however highlight the sorry state with bookmakers and horse racing. The Tingle Creek betting has been an absolute mess. The same has also happened with the Hattons Grace market with the plunge in price for VVM and NC. Like Tony Calvin's article said - it was very likely tiny amounts of money on Douvan initially and then the bookmakers gave the whole 'flood of money' and 'the right money' to create a plunge on the horse, deceiving the public completely. Billy - you mention God's Own at 16's each way 3 places - when I checked in the week they were only paying 2 places despite having the 8 runners in betting which again is shocking. There's a huge problem right now with people struggling to get even small bets on and when showing any profits in online accounts - getting accounts closed and the events of this week has shown the issue us getting worse and worse. This week has not been good for the sport at all

Saying that anyone that took any odds against on Douvan really have no leg to stand on. I posted 2 days ago about the 3/1 tempting me in, as I was unsure UDS would run so I was thinking of having a bet at those odds as I did there was a chance he could run but I knew there was a high probability he would not run, hence the appealing price. The only reason the odds were enticing was because of the unlikely chance he turns up - if he was always likely to run you'd have been lucky to get near 1/4 with this field. Yes bookmakers skewed the market completely but anyone who jumped on the bandwagon purely for the price collapsing cannot complain.

I also hate this new trend that seems to be coming up more and more where by bookmakers are refunding antepost bets. Some have refunded bets on this, Paddy power refunded bets on Vautour after Matt Chapman raised the issue on On the Line. It's happening quite a bit now but all it is is another PR stunt by the bookmakers, it is in no way a 'win' for the general betting public.
 
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No love for UDS still?

I think battling back and beating SDG, two time winner and former champion chaser - who was in great form, at his preferred track on ground that wouldn't have been ideal is really good.

Without SS, I don't see how they can not have another go at this race! Sure they won't have Ruby, but as I mentioned a couple of posts back, he has now beaten all of the horses apart from Douvan and Fox Norton in this.

10s is underestimating him. I think it is worth the risk ... I absolutely do not think he'd beat Douvan BUT the each way price and possibility of it being SOFT ground OR Douvan being in the Gold Cup is fair I think.
 
UDS jumped well, much better than I expected...
 
I'd be amazed if they didn't. Can anyone name the last horse to win the Tingle Creek and not line up in the Champion Chase come Cheltenham? I've gone back a long way and can't see one. The race is one of the best trials for it's trip when it comes to Cheltenham races, with off the top of my head only maybe the King George for the Gold Cup being it's equal. I know the ground wasn't quite as good as first thought but he won a Tingle Creek on ground still not ideal against most of the market rivals so he deserves to take his place regardless of what Douvan does.

I did place the 120/1 double on UDS champion case and Douvan King goerge before this race. I think that to be likely UDS really needed to win the race by 4-5 lengths for them to be happy to divert Douvan. I still think there's a chance though. Mullins only has Douvan and VVM entered for the KG. Ricci loves Kempton at Boxing Day and should have Faugheen coming over so i'm sure he's desperate to have another big runner in the feature race. VVM would need a quick outing over fences to be in line for the race having been seen over hurdles today so that only leaves Douvan or no runner...

Also I'm annoyed Gary Moore is looking to step up Ar Mad. I still think he would have a chance to place in this race. Thought he ran well considering it was his comeback straight into a grade 1 and after making an awful mistake did well to finish where he did.
 
I forgot to back this after being so bullish about his CC chances.

Ruby mentioned on RUK that he does stay further which would keep the Ryanair option open? HE did get headed and battle back too, but I am not sure that makes him one for further, it just shows he it gutsy over 2m. From memory, Special Tiara got past him up the Cheltenham Hill and he fought back past...

The 120/1 double is exciting for you jono, a good spot... not on and in all honestly, hope it doesn't pay off because I think Douvan needs to win the CC this year, then step up, and he'll be hailed as the new Kauto Star, hopefully taking on Thistlecrack next year who'll be defending his crown.... *oooh, I gave myself goosebumps* :triumphant:
 
Mullins said: "He would be potentially the best steeplechaser or horse we've had. It's hard to see us having one better than Hurricane Fly, but he never jumped a fence

"I'm hoping this fellow will do more over fences than anything we've ever had. He has huge potential.

"I'm keeping my fingers crossed that he stays sound and we'll stay on the two-mile route as long as we can anyway.

"If we decide to go up in trip that will be another day's work. I've no interest in even thinking about it this season. As far as I'm concerned we are on the two-mile route this year.

"I'm just taking it one day at a time and aiming for the next race. I don't see any need to move off that trip."

He went on: "Every time a horse like that runs I have my heart in my mouth. He did what we hoped and we didn't learn anything new.

"He's got spectacular scope and anyone that rides him just says he has a different gear. All the others around you are paddling looking to go faster while you are sitting on him.

"He just has a huge stride and does it effortlessly.

"My main aim now will just be to keep him sound and keep him well. His ability should carry him through most of what's ahead, I hope.

"He's a lovely horse in the stable and a kid could lead him up in the yard. He has a beautiful temperament and he's got such size.

"When you stand in to him you have to look up to him - you don't realise it.

"He's a well put together horse and when they are well put together they look smaller than they are and then you stand into them and you see how huge they are. He's one of the biggest we've ever had."

Easy as you like for the imperious Douvan & Ruby Walsh in the Paddy Power Cashcard Chase #Leopardstown #RTEracing pic.twitter.com/vp531oyfl8
— RTÉ Sport (@RTEsport) December 27, 2016

On immediate plans, Mullins added: "I don't plan these things. When the horse is sound going home then I look.

"We'll maybe look at the Tied Cottage (at Punchestown). We'll look nearer home than having to travel anyway.

"Like a lot of my horses I was wondering was he the same Douvan in his first few bits of work this year. I wasn't at all impressed with him.

"He has a new rider now with Holly (Conte) riding him instead of Gail (Carlisle). Holly rode him work differently. I asked her to talk to Gail about him and she did. Things just improved from there."

Walsh said: "He's a very good horse. He settled really well and jumped super.

"Alisier D'Irlande brought us a really good gallop. I cruised up to him over the second-last and he didn't do a whole pile then. I got a bit close to the last, but horses have to learn how to get themselves out of those situations.

"He just has a huge amount of ability. In time you probably could (step up in trip), but Willie is very conscious of developing these horses' careers and going the right way about it.

"Douvan is still a very young horse, he has a lot of racing in front of him."

Asked whether he could see Douvan taking on his Tingle Creek-winning stable companion Un De Sceaux at some stage this season, the jockey added: "I'm sure you probably could. Un De Sceaux I think will probably go to Ascot in January and I'm sure they will take each other on somewhere."
 
Is anyone actually on Douvan yet?

He was even money as late as November... Disappointed I haven't got anything on. Looks unbeatable barring a fall.

Will have to hope for some very brave bookies on the day... or get a double/treble rolled on from Tuesday.
 
This is a very trappy race to bet on atm. I'm on Lami serge at 40-1 in the hope he runs and I'm tempted by Sizing John who seems to make a living finishing second to Douvan. But nearly everything that's any ew value is just as if not more likely to go for the Ryanair.
 
Is anyone actually on Douvan yet?

He was even money as late as November... Disappointed I haven't got anything on. Looks unbeatable barring a fall.

Will have to hope for some very brave bookies on the day... or get a double/treble rolled on from Tuesday.

I'm on, backed him in April for QM at 5/4, then backed him at Evs and 4/5 any race and have a couple of QM bets at 4/7 and he's in a couple of doubles, trebles and a four fold
 
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Is anyone actually on Douvan yet?

He was even money as late as November... Disappointed I haven't got anything on. Looks unbeatable barring a fall.

Will have to hope for some very brave bookies on the day... or get a double/treble rolled on from Tuesday.

No singles, just doubles and trebles. Wins barring a major mishap so I've been basically using him to enhance prices on other horses for example Altior.

Had a look back through a few of them -
Douvan 4/6 + Altior 2/1
Douvan 4/6 + Altior 2/1 + Unowhatimeanharry 5/1
Douvan 4/6 + Unowhatimeanharry 5/1
Douvan 4/6 + Yorkhill 5/1
 
I like some of those KSS...
 
Well done paz and KSS.

Bit frustrated with my douvan bets. I've got 4 pts on Altior and douvan at 11/1 and 4 pts on with yorkhill at 9/1 but that's it. (Yorkhill one was directly after the Neptune win, been bigger prices since and still is I think)

I was thinking about starting to load up on doubles but just keep thinking of reasons not to strangely