2017 Champion Chase

[jono]

Don't forget this horse was highly thought of in the winter leading up to the 2015 Supreme with quotes like "he is built to be a chaser". You could see the real TUM now in different hands and with more tlc. Who knows, only time will tell.

I remember backing him for the Neptune that year. Early in the season it was him and Douvan to be keep apart.

 

[Kevloaf]

UDS is 8s NRNB with 365. Ill take on pricewise with that.

I like that bet.... another one where he will only tuen up if Douvan doesn't and he'd be 2/1 at best!

Incredibly likely to just get your money back, but why not! If the heaven's did open I still think they'd let Douvan run but it really is a bet to nothing. Each way to nothing too in fact. 8/1 is a stupid price NRNB.

 

[Kevloaf]

I remember backing him for the Neptune that year. Early in the season it was him and Douvan to be keep apart.

I backed Tell Us More (Neptune) in a double with Un De Sceaux... then he flopped and went out to 12/1 for the Neptune before ultimately switching target haha.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Are there going to be 8 runners here? I've been through the entries a couple of times and at a push I can find 8........ just.

I know Ista is his biggest fan and I'm starting to agree that God's Own has to be in the places if he runs here.

 

[Bob c]

Hi everyone, first post. Love the festival and talking, reading and anything else about it. Please politely correct me if I'm talking rubbish. Will traffic fluide run?, I'm thinking he's the moores secret weapon.
I know TF and AM (are mad) have both ran in 2 mile chases with sire de grugy but not against each other. Instead of running 2 of his top horseys against each other he's moved AR up in distance. Could this be because he's the better over 2M?. Only raced once last season when 5 lengths behind UDS, g moore said he wasn't 100% fit, then calls him the most beautiful specimen of a racehorse!!!.
I'm thinking each way 40/1 could be a whopper

 

[Istabraq]

Welcome Bob

One visit to a racecourse in 2 years confirms he has his health issues but he's entered in the Ascot chase in a couple of weeks, that race is over 2m 5f so that suggests his future lies over further than the min trip.
Unless of course they've just run out of options...

 

[Istabraq]

Are there going to be 8 runners here? I've been through the entries a couple of times and at a push I can find 8........ just.

I haven't done the full entries FM but are we looking at a small field again ?
Becoming a trend this, the Ryanair will be full of non stayers running scared of Douvan !
20/1 e/w about a horse who improves half a stone for good ground and another half a stone when the clock hits Spring and likely to run against a handful of challengers ?
May go in again...

 

[Kevloaf]

I haven't done the full entries FM but are we looking at a small field again ?
Becoming a trend this, the Ryanair will be full of non stayers running scared of Douvan !
20/1 e/w about a horse who improves half a stone for good ground and another half a stone when the clock hits Spring and likely to run against a handful of challengers ?
May go in again...

I'm staggered this is 20/1 NRNB. Going to think out loud now as I go through OC...

If we conceed that the win is gone (for arguements sake) ... 5/1 to place (or 5/2 depending how you look at these things).

Douvan 1/3 - Fair enough? Wins if he completes.
Altior 3/1 NRNB or 8/1 - Would only turn up if Douvan got injured ... not a horse to worry about and if Douvan did come out., Gods Own would shorten too...
Fox Norton 6/1 - I think this is the worst price of the festival - in absolute stark contrast to God's Own... he has never even run in March in his life, was beaten 10+ and 20+ Lengths by Douvan in their novice seasons and although 10L behind might be good enough to place this year, the market has seemed to get Tizzard confused with Nicholls or Mullins. Won a handicap and then beat Simply Ned back in November... had an interupted prep since. Awful bet at 6/1.
Un De Sceaux -7/1 NRNB (or 14/1) Similar to Altior, but 0% chance to run unless Douvan is out or it is heavy ground. (Arguably worth a bet NRNB to win, for the same reasons) as he'd go off fav... but another non runner in all likelihood

Gods Own 20/1

Uxiandre 16/1 NRNB or 25/1 - Bounce to consider, was 'staying on' in his last race behind UDS and has the C&D of Ryanair to his name so an unlikely target? (Although JP has nothing else to enter?)
Special Tiara 25/1 Fully exposed at this level, trip and track. Did finish ahead of GO for 3rd in the CC last year though, but GO reveresed that with ease next time out.
Ar Mad 25/1 HUGE negative for me that Gary Moore was going to run him at Ascot and not Cheltenham, and I also think it is negative they would have tried him in the King George before THistlecrack threw his hat in the ring. Not proven at Chelt and on all known evidence he wants a right handed track.
SDG 25/1 - Meh, I'd have UDS 2nd fav if he turned up and has close enough form with him from the Tingle Creek... again Cheltenham not his best track but certainly not the worst bet in the market?
Next few are VVM (Won't run), Sizing John (Won't run), Black Hercules (won't run) ... Traffic Fluide (won't run - mentioned as a Ryanair horse for next year before he got injured...can't see him pitching in against Douvan), Garde La Victoire (I really like this horse but not good enough), .... I'm at the 40/1-50/1 shots.


In the market, he is currently "5th fav", BUT UDS and Altior won't turn up (and if they did, LIKELY Douvan wouldn't) ... so he is effectivly 3rd fav and 20/1. If he was declared, he'd half in price instantly. 1/3, Fox Norton 7/2 and God's own 10/1 .... of the likely runners you could only POTENTIALLY see Uxiandre turning up and being a shorter price (Still think it less likely than thee Ryanair which looks winnable). Even SDG who has respectable form in the book on past seasons and this season, would likely be a bigger price.

Am I missing something? I suppose if there is a Fox Norton fan they may think I am only playing for 1 place, but even so, 20/1 more than compensates to me!

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Great post Kev. I think it's also worth mentioning that Fox Norton hasn't seen a racecourse since November so I'm guessing he's no certainty to make the festival either.

 

[Istabraq]

We know Douvan is a machine but, with all the setbacks suffered by Mullins recently, just suppose something prevented Douvan from making the race what price Gods Own on decent ground ?
And worth remembering he lowered the colours of the other Mullins machine, Vautour, twice last year.....

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

We know Douvan is a machine but, with all the setbacks suffered by Mullins recently, just suppose something prevented Douvan from making the race what price Gods Own on decent ground ?
And worth remembering he lowered the colours of the other Mullins machine, Vautour, twice last year.....

:encouragement: I forgot about Punchestown - I'm backing him tonight!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I've backed him in the w/out Douvan market at 7/1. I find this really good value as 7 or less runners would still give me 3 places and 8 or more 4 places, and if he finishes 2nd to Douvan that's a 7/1 winner as opposed to the 20/1 1/4 odds for a place being 5/1.

With the race likely to break up due to many being scared of Douvan it is hard to see Gods Own out of the top 3, granted my place prospects aren't up to much but a 2nd behind Douvan would be a big win.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Is he guaranteed to run though CoD? I'd be concerned they go Ryanair so want nrnb as a back up.

 

[Istabraq]

FM - I think so, they're not scared and have taken on big guns before, I think a strong 2m on good ground is perfect for him, not further.
And there is the NRNB insurance incase there is a change of heart

CorD - is that NRNB ?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Unfortunately not NRNB.

I've taken the risk that he runs in this race simply because I feel his best form is over 2m, beating Vautour, finishing 2nd to UDS & 4th (9 lengths) to Sprinter Sacre rates higher than a 2nd to Third Intention over 2m 3f & a 3rd to Third Intention over the Ryanair trip.

His only win over the Ryanair trip was in a class 2, which won't be good enough come the festival.

 

[Istabraq]

I agree, this is his trip.
I like the without Douvan bet, for win purposes but don't the fact you lose AP terms, if only 7 go to post your bet pays 2nd and 3rd if Douvan wins whereas the current AP terms pay 3 places regardless of number of runners (of which we think there'll be less than 8)

 

[Kevloaf]

I nearly mentioned with without market and decided against it because of the doubt about the ryanair... hadn't considered the place terms. I still think it is a good bet, but one for the brave compared to the 20/1 NRNB each way angle I suppose.

 

[Bob c]

Traffic fluids finished 2 1/2 lengths behind gods own at aintree his last run the season before last as a 5yo, Moore said he wants a run before Cheltenham, maybe because he learnt his lesson last year when it was his first run of the season. He's 14's without douvan, 40's with. I'm going to do both. Gods own I think is a better horse now, especially with the stable doing so well and heskin is the best jockey at the moment.

 

[Istabraq]

Bob - TF goes to Ascot next week in the 2m 5f race, if heading to Chelt this may suggest he's Ryanair bound....

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I agree, this is his trip.
I like the without Douvan bet, for win purposes but don't the fact you lose AP terms, if only 7 go to post your bet pays 2nd and 3rd if Douvan wins whereas the current AP terms pay 3 places regardless of number of runners (of which we think there'll be less than 8)

Yeah very true Ista, I guess at 7/1 you are betting him finishing 2nd to Douvan, which is not out of the question, given many look likely to be rerouted to avoid him anyway. IF 8 or more line up it's a little bit of extra protection for a place.