I haven't done the full entries FM but are we looking at a small field again ?
Becoming a trend this, the Ryanair will be full of non stayers running scared of Douvan !
20/1 e/w about a horse who improves half a stone for good ground and another half a stone when the clock hits Spring and likely to run against a handful of challengers ?
May go in again...
I'm staggered this is 20/1 NRNB. Going to think out loud now as I go through OC...
If we conceed that the win is gone (for arguements sake) ... 5/1 to place (or 5/2 depending how you look at these things).
Douvan 1/3 - Fair enough? Wins if he completes.
Altior 3/1 NRNB or 8/1 - Would only turn up if Douvan got injured ... not a horse to worry about and if Douvan did come out., Gods Own would shorten too...
Fox Norton 6/1 - I think this is the worst price of the festival - in absolute stark contrast to God's Own... he has never even run in March in his life, was beaten 10+ and 20+ Lengths by Douvan in their novice seasons and although 10L behind might be good enough to place this year, the market has seemed to get Tizzard confused with Nicholls or Mullins. Won a handicap and then beat Simply Ned back in November... had an interupted prep since. Awful bet at 6/1.
Un De Sceaux -7/1 NRNB (or 14/1) Similar to Altior, but 0% chance to run unless Douvan is out or it is heavy ground. (Arguably worth a bet NRNB to win, for the same reasons) as he'd go off fav... but another non runner in all likelihood
Gods Own 20/1
Uxiandre 16/1 NRNB or 25/1 - Bounce to consider, was 'staying on' in his last race behind UDS and has the C&D of Ryanair to his name so an unlikely target? (Although JP has nothing else to enter?)
Special Tiara 25/1 Fully exposed at this level, trip and track. Did finish ahead of GO for 3rd in the CC last year though, but GO reveresed that with ease next time out.
Ar Mad 25/1 HUGE negative for me that Gary Moore was going to run him at Ascot and not Cheltenham, and I also think it is negative they would have tried him in the King George before THistlecrack threw his hat in the ring. Not proven at Chelt and on all known evidence he wants a right handed track.
SDG 25/1 - Meh, I'd have UDS 2nd fav if he turned up and has close enough form with him from the Tingle Creek... again Cheltenham not his best track but certainly not the worst bet in the market?
Next few are
VVM (Won't run),
Sizing John (Won't run),
Black Hercules (won't run) ...
Traffic Fluide (won't run - mentioned as a Ryanair horse for next year before he got injured...can't see him pitching in against Douvan),
Garde La Victoire (I really like this horse but not good enough), .... I'm at the 40/1-50/1 shots.
In the market, he is currently "5th fav", BUT UDS and Altior won't turn up (and if they did, LIKELY Douvan wouldn't) ... so he is effectivly 3rd fav and 20/1. If he was declared, he'd half in price instantly. 1/3, Fox Norton 7/2 and God's own 10/1 .... of the likely runners you could only POTENTIALLY see Uxiandre turning up and being a shorter price (Still think it less likely than thee Ryanair which looks winnable). Even SDG who has respectable form in the book on past seasons and
this season, would likely be a bigger price.
Am I missing something? I suppose if there is a Fox Norton fan they may think I am only playing for 1 place, but even so, 20/1 more than compensates to me!