2017 Arkle Trophy Chase

[jono]

Kim Bailey still not decided where Charbel goes... Said next run will decide, Arkle, JLT or possibly a handicap! Horse has been coughing... happy now with him.

Good to hear - still a fan of the horse. I guess if you read into those comments you could say it's an indication he may fall short to compete in the top races if they are considering handicaps. Or it's just realism that he just can't compete against Altior, Min & Yorkhill.

Trying to find an each way angle in this at the moment and he is one possible. This race and the Champion Chase will both cut up to below 9 runners imo so i'm trying to find an each way in both for a multiple to pick up the extra place before it becomes the top 2 placed only.

 

[Kevloaf]

Skybet 6/1 the forecast on Altior-Min

I have no idea how forecasts odds are worked out so couldn't say if this really is value but off the top of my head that sounds pretty decent? Certainly if anyone has missed the prices on Altior and fancy him to win...

Good question, I don't know either.

Odds on fav to beat 3/1 2nd fav can't be 6/1 on the day? - Backing one horse to turn up is hard enough though... take a brave man to have a big bet on it?

Suppose it depends what odds the SP forecast would be? I bet someone awake knows...

 

[Kevloaf]

Trying to find an each way angle in this at the moment and he is one possible. This race and the Champion Chase will both cut up to below 9 runners imo so i'm trying to find an each way in both for a multiple to pick up the extra place before it becomes the top 2 placed only.

I think the EW in this is the equivilant of a 7 runner race... 2 of the spots are filled, so you're looking for a price about 1 spot almost?

Champion Chase I am going to go hunting around in again now...?

 

[ryanh97]

Good question, I don't know either.

Odds on fav to beat 3/1 2nd fav can't be 6/1 on the day? - Backing one horse to turn up is hard enough though... take a brave man to have a big bet on it?

Suppose it depends what odds the SP forecast would be? I bet someone awake knows...

Ive done a bit of research and theres no exact answer, it's done on some long algorithm that hasnt been put in the public. It takes into consideration the number of outsiders amongst other stuff apparently. I've tried looking at the past few days results to get a kind of example of around a 4/6ish beating a maybe 3/1 but cant quite find one

Update - The 2.40 at Fontwell on Friday had a 4/7 shot beating a 3/1 horse, the SF paid £2.92. Whether this would be the same based upon the other factors I dont know but its as close as I can get

 

[Morning Glory]

Pricewise picks Cloudy Dream ew at 25/1 in the Arkle

 

[Cashew King]

Pricewise picks Cloudy Dream ew at 25/1 in the Arkle

Of Cloudy Dreams weekend run...

Ruth Jefferson, assistant to her father, said: "The other horse just found a gear he didn't have after the last. It happens.

"Our horse jumped and travelled well and has come out of it fine.

"He has entries in the Arkle and the JLT (at the Cheltenham Festival) and he'll also get handicap entries, so we'll see where we are nearer the time."

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Min is weak on the exchanges, to back is 6.0, a little bit of money waiting at 9.0

 

[Kevloaf]

Min is weak on the exchanges, to back is 6.0, a little bit of money waiting at 9.0

Not good news. The Altior camp (of which I have a big tent right in the middle) can't be too happy either because Yorkhill could get rerouted and that'll be am even closer match!

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Yorkhill trading at 12.0.

As we've said before, it can be an expensive hobby trying to second guess Willie. I was told last week that the injury to Min was worse than reported but don't think I shared it on here.

 

[Kevloaf]

Yorkhill trading at 12.0.

As we've said before, it can be an expensive hobby trying to second guess Willie. I was told last week that the injury to Min was worse than reported but don't think I shared it on here.

I have heard that elsewhere too. Be a shame if he doesn't make it... one of the most exciting potential 'match-ups' of the festival which is lacking really as a whole and I love it when horses and clashes cause debate :encouragement:

 

[jono]

I think the EW in this is the equivilant of a 7 runner race... 2 of the spots are filled, so you're looking for a price about 1 spot almost?

Champion Chase I am going to go hunting around in again now...?

True but my way of thinking was the each way angle in the race will likely go with Altior and Min and a small field so I could have an each way angle in a race that would no longer have one...Having looked a fair bit again today though there's no one there that takes my eye where i'm certain they'd take in this race over the JLT. Probably is far too risky playing a place in this race with all the doubts and just 1 place to play for. Being on Altior too means I should probably just leave this race now, sit back and relax!

Ive done a bit of research and theres no exact answer, it's done on some long algorithm that hasnt been put in the public. It takes into consideration the number of outsiders amongst other stuff apparently. I've tried looking at the past few days results to get a kind of example of around a 4/6ish beating a maybe 3/1 but cant quite find one

Yeah i've heard similar to that. Related to the 6/1 Altior-Min Forecast, SkyBet now have:

Altior & Min to finish 1st & 2nd in any order in the 2017 Arkle - 3/1

Now again it's working out what the reverse forecast would be etc etc. I can only think this price has the doubts on Min factored into this bet (i don't see the merry go round of Min going JLT, Yorkhill CH) as otherwise this is as guaranteed as can be isn't it?!? I know sometimes in a race with 2 horses so superior to the field means occasionally as they take eachother on another can pick up the pieces to finish second but I just cannot see anything in this market to do even that.

I'm heavily on the side of Altior in this and haven't even got Min backed, so this bet looks VERY appealing and a win win obviously IF the worries of Min's injury isn't as bad as some say...

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I've layed off my Altior bet today at a touch below evens. He's my biggest ever ante post bet and the switch of Buvier D'air yesterday made up my mind. I might step in again with NRNB at some point.

At least I can start sleeping easy at night again.

 

[jono]

Same with me FM. It's Altior or bust for me in this race, hence why i'm keen to get some kind of backup!

So having layed the off the bet FM - are you more confident that Min will be lining up after his setback?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I was more worried of an injury to Altior (or Douvan) than the opposition to Altior. It would have been a severe kick in the balls of I didn't get a run for my money but I'm toying with the idea of stepping back in at 4/6 nrnb

 

[mayo]

Were you on with Betfair FM ?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

No Mayo - took 5/1 at the start of the season but had a bigger bet than I'm comfortable with on Ante Post terms. Layed off with betfair. I'm tying loads of money up at the moment, having layed off Thistlecrack on Sunday too and considering doing the same with Melon tomorrow.

 

[mayo]

ive a good chunk on altior too but dont fancy the deposit to layoff - might cover a few others ..

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

It's only 6 weeks, plus, either way your getting it back after 2 races.

 

[mayo]

fair enough ..thinking about charbel nrnb.

not many that you can even fancy.

 

[Kevloaf]

I should probably do similar in quite a few of my races FM .... I might ask you some questions about it ... I have an internal battle between wanting to enjoy it and just thinking anything I get back is the price I've paid for the entertainment and the gamble AND whether to be smart and make money while I can, at the expense of taking some of the fun out.