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2017 Arkle Trophy Chase

mayo said:
fair enough ..thinking about charbel nrnb.

not many that you can even fancy.
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I went striaght to the Arkle to see Charbel's odds but 20 NRNB isn't worth it I don't think, looks a two horsie race so only 1 spot to play for as I said earlier.

Altior & Min to finish 1st & 2nd in any order in the 2017 Arkle - 3/1
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If it was NRNB I'd have a WHACK on it .... you could easily make that a bet to nothing when only about 5 others turn up and you can bet without Altior for example!
 
mayo said:
fair enough ..thinking about charbel nrnb.

not many that you can even fancy.[/QUOTE

Re Charbel

They're yet to decide on Arkle or JLT despite previously suggesting wanting to avoid Altior - will either run at Market Rasen in a 2 mile novice chase on 19th Feb or the Pendil novice over 2m 4f at Kempton on 25th Feb.
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Arkle market has just been suspended. Strong rumours that Min is out of the festival
 
Min and Faugheen ruled out of Cheltenham races



By Peter Scargill 3:36PM 6 FEB 2017


A MAJOR hole has been blown in trainer Willie Mullins's Cheltenham Festival team as both Faugheen and Min were on Monday ruled out of next month's meeting.

While Mullins hopes both will make it to the track again this season, they will not be at Cheltenham next month where they had been set to contest the Stan James Champion Hurdle and Racing Post Arkle respectively.

Faugheen, who missed his scheduled comeback in last month's Irish Champion Hurdle due to a pre-race setback, has suffered a stress fracture but Mullins is "hoping that he will be okay for Punchestown".

Min also missed his most recent target, the Irish Arkle, and has a bone bruise, according to Mullins. He could still make meetings later in the spring.
 
Gutted. Had hope for Faugheen but really expected Min to make it. The Tuesday is ruined now
 
Right, I was against any ante post each way angles in to this race when it looked a two horse race because only 1 spot was up for grabs...

Chances are Min's defection won't entice any new horses in to this race because Altior is still looking mighty (bar maybe a Mullins horse to take his place) I can't imagine they'd even consider the Arkle with Yorkhill now though, and if I am wrong then so-be-it!... with the mighty Altior at 1/2 ... we have a market that looks very similar to the CC.

NRNB now available in 2/3 places and we have every single runner, at at least double figures behind the fav. So where does the value lie? Thinking out loud time... Bold for what I consider likely runners

Altior 1st
Yorkhill - JLT or CH
Buveur Dair - CH
Cloudy Dream - Beaten last twice and shorter than conquerers
Identity Thief - two falls in last 2, need to see him out again before backing?
Some Plan - Only finisher last time out. Impossible to rate the form.
Charbel
Top Notch - JLT bound
Royal Caviar Keeps falling too
Le Prezien - JLT bound - PFN has mentioned he needs a step up
Forest Bihan
Politologue - Going JLT
Waiting Patiently - Needs soft and further
Benie Des Dieux Once raced over fences, only raced against mares and Mullins tends to mind them? ***edit .... I forgot I backed this NRNB as it is her only entry****
Starchitect - Grand Annual
Listen Dear
American Tom
Bleu Et Rouge
Bellshill - No chance of running
Flying Angel - Looks fully exposed since debut
Ordinary World - Grand Annual
I don't know enough about Gino Trail, Ball Darc, Attribution, A Hare Breath, Three Stars, Knockgraffon, Mick Thonic, Tully East,Cepage,
War Singer, Winner Massagot

Any I had comments on wouldn't interest me as a bet in this at the moment (for the reason given above)... so I would be left with ...

Charbel NRNB best price 14/1
Forest Bihan NRNB best price 25/1
Listen Dear NRNB best price 20/1
American Tom NRNB best price 25/1
Bleu Et Rouge NRNB best price 33/1

Now, I like Charbel. I've backed at 33/1 for the JLT and I am tempted to have a bet 1 pt EW in this. On the run in the Henry VIII he was only 6L behind AND I don't think he can reverse the form, (Altior won with more in hand) but 6L behind in the Arkle could well be second?!

Forest Bihan - I did like this for a handicap. That looks to be gone after beating Cloudy Dream last time... but at 25/1 he is almost twice the price of the horse he beat last time. Tempted again to have a bet, the price is too big on last time out?

The final 3 are Mullins runners... and I'd be a little tempted with a complete flyer on Listen Dear at 40/1 (without the NRNB concession) maybe in a double with Bunk Off Early at 25s as they're both in the same ownership :triumphant: However ... she has 3 chase wins, all uncompetitve including a 2 runner race at 1/12. .... so in short the 20/1 isn't that tempting?

American Tom Tempter... PURELY on the price. If Ruby sat on a Ricci horse in the Arkle... would we get 25/1? Absolutely not. I probably will back this to win and just lay it for a free bet the day before.

Bleu Et Rouge I've always thought wants further... but was backed in to fav in the Irish Arkle and I do like to watch the JP money when it goes down. Of course, he fell after a few flights but at 33/1 NRNB I actually think he is the one with the potential to shorten the most. If he did turn up, I think he'd be a third of the price. Very tempted to back this

In my book at the moment I have Altior at 5/1 and Identity Thief at 14/1. Obviously happier with one of them over the other, but that is where I am at. ****edit and Benie des binex nrnb****

I am happy enough to leave Charbel, I still think JLT is more likely and 14/1 NRNB isn't quite enough to lure me in at this stage.

Forest Bigan I also feel like I can leave... being twice the price of Cloudy Dream is fair enough, but I don't think Cloudy Dream is that good...so I haven't convinced myself...

Can easily leave Listen Dear at 20/1 NRNB ... but I probably WILL do the doubler I mentioned.

I can't leave American Tom or Bleu Et Rouge left unbacked at those NRNB prices. What do you guys think?
 
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Thoughtful post Kev.

Bleu Et Rouge does not look a natural over fences. American Tom not as good as Royal Caviar ?
 
Old Vic said:
Thoughtful post Kev.

Bleu Et Rouge does not look a natural over fences. American Tom not as good as Royal Caviar ?
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Short answers yes, no.

Bleu Et Rouge doesn't look natural but that doesn't mean he isn't over priced if turning up.

American Tom is better than royal caviar on hype but I'm happy enough that connections would know... and the hype would get AT shorter.

I guess the same theory could apply ... royal caviar nrnb ... WOULD go off shorter...?
 
Will be less than 7 runners on the day ?

I've had a look at without Altior market...its each way only on Betfair Sportsbook I think. Not NRNB but if you can find ant definite runner might only need to finish to collect.
 
Old Vic said:
Will be less than 7 runners on the day ?

I've had a look at without Altior market...its each way only on Betfair Sportsbook I think. Not NRNB but if you can find ant definite runner might only need to finish to collect.
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Good point, especially if there is no Yorkhill in the JLT. That may become a really attractive race for connections.
 
Great post Kev. I'd go along with a lot of that. On Listen Dear, she's entered up this weekend and the Supreme Racing Club recently said:

She is entered in the Mares' Hurdle and the Arkle Trophy at Cheltenham.

Massey added: "She's in good form and the plan is for her to run in a Listed mares' chase at Naas a week on Saturday (February 11).

"We'll see how she gets on there before deciding whether she could run at the Festival."
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Royal Cavier would be one I wouldn't dismiss completely too. He did fall last time out but has looked a natural over fences in his 2 runs bar that last flight fall. Hard to say for sure if he would have held on but i'd take him over Some Plan in this race.

He's a consistent horse who barely ever runs a bad race and has always finished in the top 2 when completed:

1222122211

He was actually quite highly thought of early on in his career too but never really liked up to the promise over hurdles. Perhaps fences are bringing out some of that early promise

and like you said...If Ruby sat on a Ricci horse in the Arkle... would we get 25/1? Absolutely not
 
Good posts gents.

Some Plan looked beat by RC when he fell last time out so I also like the 25/1. 13/2 without Altior probably a good enough each way too.
 
So do we think Altior will run in the Game Spirit this weekend? Soft-Heavy in places isn't ideal for him and it's the type of ground that would certainly get Nicky worrying.

I know he wanted to get another run into Altior before March but he had an 80 day break between the festival and his last prep run last year which worked perfectly fine.
 
Nah, Altior has "race course gallop" written all over it. I see he was 1/2 and now 4/5. With Min not running does he need this test?
I would love to see it, but resigned to it not happening.
 
Kevloaf said:
Nah, Altior has "race course gallop" written all over it. I see he was 1/2 and now 4/5. With Min not running does he need this test?
I would love to see it, but resigned to it not happening.
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Yes right on the money I think. He'll take no risks.
 
Nico might like a proper race on him ?
 
Is it just me, or would others prefer Fehily to keep the ride?
 
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