Possibly cwright, but I think the class of Altior will scare many off as it did with Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig and there may only be half a dozen runners, 11/10 and 3/1 is about as big as either will be if that's the case....
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2017 Arkle Trophy Chase
- Thread starter Old Vic
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Al Ferof
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Hello all- long time spectator of this forum when it comes to antepost Cheltenham and wanted to discuss Min and Yorkhill.
I have been reading Mullins and Walsh comments on these two very closely, and as a result I have an idea that we might see some re-routing going on closer to the festival.
Graham Wylie
“He’s a very impressive horse and he’s definitely going novice chasing this season, but we can revert back to hurdles if we need to,” he told reporters.
“Willie said he’ll try to get him two more runs before Cheltenham (after Saturday), so we’ve got three runs under his belt as he needs the experience.
“When I watched the Tolworth in the mud, that was exciting, and when I watched him at Cheltenham I could see that every time he jumped a hurdle he (Ruby Walsh) was having to pull him back because he was so exuberant.
Mullins said:
"He has huge scope for jumping and certainly has not lost any of his ability. He's very at home over fences.
"He went a bit left but that would not worry me too much once they have an engine. I hope fences will help him to settle. He took a fairly keen hold but was not rushing his fences.
"He would have no trouble stepping up in trip but he is very good at that trip and can jump at that trip.
"Christmas will probably come a bit too soon for his next run. He could stay at two miles or go up in trip just depending where his next run fits in."
He also said in a RP interview:
" "I thought it was a good performance first-time over fences. He did go to the left at several fences but that isn't a worry. If he has to go left or right then going left is better when you think of Leopardstown, Cheltenham and Aintree.
"We think he is Arkle Trophy material and his hurdle form would certainly suggest he is. Leopardstown at Christmas will probably come too soon for him, so we'll wait and see what will be next for him. He would have no problem going up in trip although two miles suits him well."
Ruby Walsh
"His novice hurdle form was good and obviously he just found Altior too good (in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham).
"He's an easier horse to ride over fences. He has a look where he's going over fences and he's a bit more manageable.
"I was happy with him in Navan but he impressed me today. He reminds me of Kauto.
"I'd imagine with the pace he shows you wouldn't need to be going much further at the minute, even though he probably could."
I think almost every punter I speak to or read from agrees with antepost markets- that Yorkhill is the JLT horse and Min the Arkle horse.
However, when we assess what the owners, trainers and jockey(s) are saying, it doesn't appear quite so cut and dry. For Yorkhill to be delcared 'Arkle material' on that debut run, it's a pretty big statement. Also throw in there that Wylie mentioned reverting to hurdles if required. Ruby also got off him after the Neptune and immediately said Arkle 2017. Now, given how freely he can race and as Wylie said- 'exuberant'- is there really any need to rush him up in trip yet? Tidal Bay was once an Arkle horse before growing into a stayer later down the line.
With Min- you have to think that they are keeping one eye on Altior. If he goes and destroys them in all in open company in his prep race, given that he beat Min well in the Supreme, is there a suggestion that Min avoids a rematch, and they send Yorkhill, who having conquered the Yanworth hype last year they'd fancy to have a crack at Altior to do the same?
The 'Kauto' comments intrigue me and Mins nice, settled style over fences suggests to me he could go and deliver something very good in a JLT- lest we forget that Vautour did the same having been touted for the Arkle. (Of course, he did have that one poor run at Christmas though).
The other interesting angles to note are a) Whether Annie & Faugheen return for a Champion Hurdle- would an absence tempt the Yorkhill camp (especially having beaten Yanworth)? and b) American Tom can still give Ricci the thrill of a runner in the Arkle if he felt Min was a near certainty in the JLT.
Any thoughts?
I have been reading Mullins and Walsh comments on these two very closely, and as a result I have an idea that we might see some re-routing going on closer to the festival.
Graham Wylie
“He’s a very impressive horse and he’s definitely going novice chasing this season, but we can revert back to hurdles if we need to,” he told reporters.
“Willie said he’ll try to get him two more runs before Cheltenham (after Saturday), so we’ve got three runs under his belt as he needs the experience.
“When I watched the Tolworth in the mud, that was exciting, and when I watched him at Cheltenham I could see that every time he jumped a hurdle he (Ruby Walsh) was having to pull him back because he was so exuberant.
Mullins said:
"He has huge scope for jumping and certainly has not lost any of his ability. He's very at home over fences.
"He went a bit left but that would not worry me too much once they have an engine. I hope fences will help him to settle. He took a fairly keen hold but was not rushing his fences.
"He would have no trouble stepping up in trip but he is very good at that trip and can jump at that trip.
"Christmas will probably come a bit too soon for his next run. He could stay at two miles or go up in trip just depending where his next run fits in."
He also said in a RP interview:
" "I thought it was a good performance first-time over fences. He did go to the left at several fences but that isn't a worry. If he has to go left or right then going left is better when you think of Leopardstown, Cheltenham and Aintree.
"We think he is Arkle Trophy material and his hurdle form would certainly suggest he is. Leopardstown at Christmas will probably come too soon for him, so we'll wait and see what will be next for him. He would have no problem going up in trip although two miles suits him well."
Ruby Walsh
"His novice hurdle form was good and obviously he just found Altior too good (in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham).
"He's an easier horse to ride over fences. He has a look where he's going over fences and he's a bit more manageable.
"I was happy with him in Navan but he impressed me today. He reminds me of Kauto.
"I'd imagine with the pace he shows you wouldn't need to be going much further at the minute, even though he probably could."
I think almost every punter I speak to or read from agrees with antepost markets- that Yorkhill is the JLT horse and Min the Arkle horse.
However, when we assess what the owners, trainers and jockey(s) are saying, it doesn't appear quite so cut and dry. For Yorkhill to be delcared 'Arkle material' on that debut run, it's a pretty big statement. Also throw in there that Wylie mentioned reverting to hurdles if required. Ruby also got off him after the Neptune and immediately said Arkle 2017. Now, given how freely he can race and as Wylie said- 'exuberant'- is there really any need to rush him up in trip yet? Tidal Bay was once an Arkle horse before growing into a stayer later down the line.
With Min- you have to think that they are keeping one eye on Altior. If he goes and destroys them in all in open company in his prep race, given that he beat Min well in the Supreme, is there a suggestion that Min avoids a rematch, and they send Yorkhill, who having conquered the Yanworth hype last year they'd fancy to have a crack at Altior to do the same?
The 'Kauto' comments intrigue me and Mins nice, settled style over fences suggests to me he could go and deliver something very good in a JLT- lest we forget that Vautour did the same having been touted for the Arkle. (Of course, he did have that one poor run at Christmas though).
The other interesting angles to note are a) Whether Annie & Faugheen return for a Champion Hurdle- would an absence tempt the Yorkhill camp (especially having beaten Yanworth)? and b) American Tom can still give Ricci the thrill of a runner in the Arkle if he felt Min was a near certainty in the JLT.
Any thoughts?
Welcome Al Ferof. One of my favourite horses so I instantly like you. :highly_amused:
The combination(s) of Min being in the JLT aren't ones that I've given much consideration to before.... With American Tom being mentioned as a JLT horse by Ricci before his chase debut, comments about him (AT) being able to go up in trip and the 'near certainty' that Ricci would split his runners up, would suggest to me that Min (Arkle) American Tom (JLT) is the most likely destination for those two. I have certainly seen comments about Min staying at 2 miles too, even in the quote above. I also think Vautour had raced over 20f too, before being "rerouted" to the JLT.
There have also been enough comments too about the Min camp not being scared to have another crack at Altior too?
I'm actually surprised at Min's price for the JLT though... You can back Min at 16 with PP and the Yorkhill (Arkle) Min (JLT) is 135/1 with PP.
I guess 135/1 is what the £2.00 "free bets" I have from Harry Kane scoring recently is what they are made for haha
I have found these quotes as well from the Ricci stable tour:
The combination(s) of Min being in the JLT aren't ones that I've given much consideration to before.... With American Tom being mentioned as a JLT horse by Ricci before his chase debut, comments about him (AT) being able to go up in trip and the 'near certainty' that Ricci would split his runners up, would suggest to me that Min (Arkle) American Tom (JLT) is the most likely destination for those two. I have certainly seen comments about Min staying at 2 miles too, even in the quote above. I also think Vautour had raced over 20f too, before being "rerouted" to the JLT.
There have also been enough comments too about the Min camp not being scared to have another crack at Altior too?
I'm actually surprised at Min's price for the JLT though... You can back Min at 16 with PP and the Yorkhill (Arkle) Min (JLT) is 135/1 with PP.
I guess 135/1 is what the £2.00 "free bets" I have from Harry Kane scoring recently is what they are made for haha
I have found these quotes as well from the Ricci stable tour:
Last edited:
Latest on Min from Ruby on RUK
e's jumped really well on his two starts, settled a bit better than he did over hurdles," continued Walsh.
"He was entitled to win at Navan. I suppose with Identity Thief pulling up at Leopardstown that took away from that performance but Min can only do what he's asked to do and he jumped superb and galloped really strongly.
"Altior was too good for him last year in the Supreme so stiffer challenges lie ahead."
e's jumped really well on his two starts, settled a bit better than he did over hurdles," continued Walsh.
"He was entitled to win at Navan. I suppose with Identity Thief pulling up at Leopardstown that took away from that performance but Min can only do what he's asked to do and he jumped superb and galloped really strongly.
"Altior was too good for him last year in the Supreme so stiffer challenges lie ahead."
No suggestion from Ruby that Min injured himself in the Supreme, just beaten by a
better horse....
Yep, he has said that plenty of times now. I think they know anything can happen and they won't be scared of one, but they really have nothing to lose...
If they play Min down, and he gets beaten by a better horse, they'll be more than happy to admit Altior is a special horse... safe in the knowledge that Douvan (in theory) sets the standard for next season! What a clash that could be, and then we'll know exactly how good Douvan is. All wonder horses need something to spur them on and I think it is in the back of Ruby's mind.
Of course this might all be nonsense, and Douvan goes up in trip and clashes with Thistlecrack... either way, I have digressed and am excited!
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Ruby has talked impressively about Min I get the impression he knows a very very good horse lies in wait in the Arkle in Altior and it'll take something special to beat him this year.
I know it's wrong to think too far ahead and anything can happen but all being well, po I love the idea of Douvan not being able to hide next season. Potentially Stay at 2 miles and he'll face Altior, or step up in trip and take on Thistlecrack. A mouthwatering battle whichever way Mullins decides to take the horse
...or he ends up going Ryanair and avoiding both
Coral are currently doing a 6/1 special on Altior to remain unbeaten in 2017. (one run needed). Thoughts?
In almost all circumstances Altior gets to March unbeaten. The acid test will be in the Arkle but if he gets through that as myself and many expect surely then the bet would come down to the Tingle Creek if/and a match up with Douvan was to occur but i'm not sure Willie would be desperate to bring him over for it if Douvan was to stay over 2 miles next year. Right now the 2m division in Britain looks Altiors to lose so essentially the risk is if Douvan turns up in the Tingle Creek
p.s they also offer Douvan at 6/4 - with that I guess it's how confident you are that either Douvan potentially beats Altior in the TC / Thistlecrack in the KG or just stays over in Ireland mopping up those races.
I know it's wrong to think too far ahead and anything can happen but all being well, po I love the idea of Douvan not being able to hide next season. Potentially Stay at 2 miles and he'll face Altior, or step up in trip and take on Thistlecrack. A mouthwatering battle whichever way Mullins decides to take the horse
...or he ends up going Ryanair and avoiding both
Coral are currently doing a 6/1 special on Altior to remain unbeaten in 2017. (one run needed). Thoughts?
In almost all circumstances Altior gets to March unbeaten. The acid test will be in the Arkle but if he gets through that as myself and many expect surely then the bet would come down to the Tingle Creek if/and a match up with Douvan was to occur but i'm not sure Willie would be desperate to bring him over for it if Douvan was to stay over 2 miles next year. Right now the 2m division in Britain looks Altiors to lose so essentially the risk is if Douvan turns up in the Tingle Creek
p.s they also offer Douvan at 6/4 - with that I guess it's how confident you are that either Douvan potentially beats Altior in the TC / Thistlecrack in the KG or just stays over in Ireland mopping up those races.
Probably not worth the wait on Altior at 6/1.... for the amount you'd want to invest. 31st December 2017 pay out? Not for me ...
Fully echo the douvan comments. If he turns up in the Ryanair I will not watch racing ever again.
Fully echo the douvan comments. If he turns up in the Ryanair I will not watch racing ever again.
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Yeah it felt a bit too skinny to have to wait a whole year, double figures than I certainly would have gone in I think
That Altior bet looks OK to me, you're actually backing the horse to win probably his next 3 races.
I don't know whether they'll give him another run but if they do it'll be in a soft race where he'll be 1/6 again, he'll be a short price for the Arkle and they might let him have a go at the big novice chase at Aintree in which Min won't come over so he could be silly short against.
Next season he'll make his reappearance in another soft race for second season chasers, I don't see Hendo sending him for the Tingle Creek where he could face a test but even so if Douvan doesn't come over he'd be short for that.
The price is OK, treat it like an ante post Gold Cup bet placed during Aintree....
I don't know whether they'll give him another run but if they do it'll be in a soft race where he'll be 1/6 again, he'll be a short price for the Arkle and they might let him have a go at the big novice chase at Aintree in which Min won't come over so he could be silly short against.
Next season he'll make his reappearance in another soft race for second season chasers, I don't see Hendo sending him for the Tingle Creek where he could face a test but even so if Douvan doesn't come over he'd be short for that.
The price is OK, treat it like an ante post Gold Cup bet placed during Aintree....
I think sitting on 5/1 to win the Arkle changes the appeal of the bet somewhat.
If he wins the Arkle I'll get paid out and although he may then remain unbeaten, for 1 pt more I certainly wouldn't trade.
I suppose that changed my outlook. Still, not for moi.
I don't like the Douvan one at 6/4 either... if he stayed at 2 miles you're probably not far off having a BIT of value, but some horses don't NEED to be backed to enjoy. Frankel became unbackable and Douvan is most of the time too, plus he does tend to chance at leasst 1 every time...
I would like to state for the avoidance of doubt, that I do not think Douvan is better than Frankel
If he wins the Arkle I'll get paid out and although he may then remain unbeaten, for 1 pt more I certainly wouldn't trade.
I suppose that changed my outlook. Still, not for moi.
I don't like the Douvan one at 6/4 either... if he stayed at 2 miles you're probably not far off having a BIT of value, but some horses don't NEED to be backed to enjoy. Frankel became unbackable and Douvan is most of the time too, plus he does tend to chance at leasst 1 every time...
I would like to state for the avoidance of doubt, that I do not think Douvan is better than Frankel
Brital
Fat Jockey Patron
The bet also has the advantage of any injuries or set backs work in your favour once he's won the next race.
After all my torn up a/p 'good things' for Cheltenham this year, that's not a minor consideration ��
After all my torn up a/p 'good things' for Cheltenham this year, that's not a minor consideration ��
Interesting angle. Didn't consider that. BE a silver lining to any injury. Stiill, I don't like winning due to injury or falls or anything else. All part of the game but not quite as satisfying.
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Some good points, when I think about it I like to have the odd bet just before the festival for next year's festival now and again so it's no different to that, though generally it'll be on odds of 10/1 plus.
I do think if I wasn't on Altior for the Arkle yet the 6/1 would appeal a fair bit more but just below what I would want being on him for the Arkle already. Though I am also suspect on these bets...my experience is of both Sprinter Sacre and Faugheen when both looked unbeatable when the bet was introduced to go unbeaten and both suffered defeat/injury albeit this has the advantage of only needing 1 run when I think both of those required 3 (both at the start of the season).
Just seen Altior has an entry for the Clarance House at Ascot later this month. I know it's not uncommon for horses to have multiple entries, but not always in open events when still a novice. He could likely appear in the Game Spirit soon (which would be the race if any that I expect him to run in as his last prep run) and was also entered in both the novice and open 2m race at Sandown over Christmas. Nicky Henderson is very cautious trainer in running his horses but I take out of these entries outside of novice company is that he must be absolutely flying at home and is showing something truly special! :triumphant:
I do think if I wasn't on Altior for the Arkle yet the 6/1 would appeal a fair bit more but just below what I would want being on him for the Arkle already. Though I am also suspect on these bets...my experience is of both Sprinter Sacre and Faugheen when both looked unbeatable when the bet was introduced to go unbeaten and both suffered defeat/injury albeit this has the advantage of only needing 1 run when I think both of those required 3 (both at the start of the season).
Just seen Altior has an entry for the Clarance House at Ascot later this month. I know it's not uncommon for horses to have multiple entries, but not always in open events when still a novice. He could likely appear in the Game Spirit soon (which would be the race if any that I expect him to run in as his last prep run) and was also entered in both the novice and open 2m race at Sandown over Christmas. Nicky Henderson is very cautious trainer in running his horses but I take out of these entries outside of novice company is that he must be absolutely flying at home and is showing something truly special! :triumphant:
Nothing but confidence to take from those entries. Game Spirit is the same route Sprinter took and it just exudes confidence to me. I think Altior is still value now and due to Min being a good competitor and his connections he'll be slightly UNDER RATED and a very generous price on the day.
Faugheen_Machine
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NJH blog has just said that he doesn't know who will ride Altior in the future. I thought Nico would be a certainty but it didn't read that way.
I like Fehily so really happy he may keep the ride.
I like Fehily so really happy he may keep the ride.
That is music to my ears! I do like NDB but Fehily is better, more experienced and has started to build a relationship with the horse over a fence. I'm not saying I'd be against Altior either way, but I do see that as a positive.
Faugheen_Machine
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Maybe Daryl has picked up the ride
Fehily over Nico all day long for me - jockeys might be only athletic group who seem to improve with age.
Fehily over Nico all day long for me - jockeys might be only athletic group who seem to improve with age.