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2017 Arkle Trophy Chase

Istabraq said:
I feel like I've had a winner already getting Altior at 5s.
3s top price now, all the 7/2 yesterday gone with many going 5/2 and 11/4....
Click to expand...

I know what you mean, when I did the "any race" thread I had Altior at 5s too.... was 3s for any race at that point... even that looks cracking now!

Definitely wouldn't be on without having this forum to go to to get the cogs whirring, brilliant. Even if it loses I feel it has been a good bet!
 
Yep, all that needs to happen now is that he avoids injury, impresses with his jumping, wins every race he enters, gets to Cheltenham in the form if his life and 100% healthy, doesn't get affected by the intense atmosphere, avoids the poor jumpers, jumps cleanly and sprints up the hill against the Worlds best 2m novice chasers, they might as well pay me out now.....

It is exciting I agree....
 
hahaha ... exactly. 1 down, 27 to go.
 
Hope he falls on debut (with no injuries) drifts like the proverbial barge and then i'll mop up the double figure prices before he soars back into the arkle reckoning!! 5/2 far too short for me now, think he's now shorter than what douvan was, ridiculous
 
He's the same price as Douvan and Simonsig were before they jumped a fence GJT - can't blame the bookies, would you really want to lay him at a bigger price?!
 
I see your point but douvan was just a horse that oozed total class as was always going to be a jumper, I just can't feel the same for Altior yet, although I want the horse to win I suppose the decision/announcement being left so late just puts me off slightly, I feel min at 8/1 could be my arkle bet for now, has some e/w value and can't see the horse going anywhere else
 
I don't think you could say that Douvan's supreme was more impressive than Altior's though. If you were being critical, you could say that Douvan beat a stayer (in Shaneshill) and Sizing John who isn't special. Altior pulled away from Min who is a 2 mile horse and no further, who was unbeaten going in to it. Admittedly he wasn't as well thought of as Douvan was, but it isn't like Altior has just beaten Min, he has slammed Min and is going away at the end.
Hendo knows a top 2 mile chaser and I think the same price as Douvan is perfectly fair, when Douvan had done very much the same. Douvan does look a chaser, but I am sure with no Faugheen/Annie/etc etc they could well have had a more difficult decision about whether to go chasing or not...

The only negative with Altior for me, is the jockey. Not a HUGE negative, because he has clearly shown ability and can get the job done, but with Douvan and Simonsig, you knew you'd have one of the best on board.... NDB is not that.
 
Im also well and truly on the Altior train with my largest single antepost bet...so the doubts are now kicking in a little compared to my early confidence!! The doubt between the hurdles or fences route is a tad worrying until we see him jump a fence.

On one hand the delayed decision to go the Arkle route can be seen as a negative that perhaps he didn't sparkle when they schooled over fences. Even the Racing Post video at his yard had Henderson saying they can always switch him back to Hurdling in December if things don't work out. I'm hoping it is not doubt over his ability over fences but the doubt that they may of had a champion hurdle winner if they had stayed over hurdles. Plus Nicky Henderson is known to be a man full of worry for his horses!

I also think we may look back at this years Supreme in very good light in a year or two
 
And I really think it is important to stress just how highly thought of Min was. There were many shrewd judges that considered Min to be better than Douvan at certain points leading up to Cheltenham. Like Willie said himself if Altior has stepped on a stone that day and was withdrawn everyone would have been hailing Min as a superstar and a certainty for this year and he'd be just as short as Altior is now.
I won't put anyone off Min at 8/1 especially each way as I still think he could be very very good. I just think he bumped into a special one in Altior.

Ps I actually really rate NDB. His rides on Coneygree and Sprinter Sacre show he well he can ride. Of course no one beats Ruby round Cheltenhham though!
 
If you can find me a quote where someone said Min is better than Douvan I'll fall off my chair.

They said Min is like Champange Fever and will make a better chaser, I got on the Min/orkhill double each way a month or so back so I am already mob handed in the Arkle...

I didn't mean to knock NDB, it just strikes me as the only negative .... and I wouldn't take the fact they considered winning a champion hurdle as a negative either. A 2 mile chaser is what Hendo knows and in a couple of years Altior could well be up there against Douvan if he ends up staying down the 2 mile route. Roll on Cheltenham 2018 haha
 
Leading up to Cheltenham I definitely remember seeing a few quotes. Nothing from the trainer/owner mind (in fact they were slightly more reserved compared to Vautour and Douvan) I don't think it was a case of Min is/will be better than Douvan as everyone by last season realised in Douvan we could potentially have one of the greatest of all time but more that Min had shown more or looked better than Douvan had at that point of time I.e both having had 2 hurdle runs. The Final Furlong Podcast had Robbie McNamara and Kevin Blake (I think) both saying that I'm sure around January time
 
Firstly I also rate nico de boinville and always felt he didn't get enough chances with hendo, thought he out rose Barry on quite a few occasions!! No doubt the 2016 supreme is going to be one hell of a form race for this season I agree, but A lot of people seem to forget the injury min picked up in that race and still finished 2nd, thought something was wrong visually when i watched the race as nothing just happened when he came off the bridle, if it wasn't for how Ruby had placed him during the race he may have finished even further back and I have to rate his chances at 8/1 over altiors at 5/2 for now, if you wanted to get super critical the supreme was altiors 8th run under rules and it was only mins 4th, not to forget min is a year younger as well so loads of reasons to think he can improve a lot more
 
Have to say I had forgotten about Min being a year younger so very true on the possible potential for improving more.

Has anyone got a definite injury that Min picked up? I've seen a few rumours but nothing concrete. Found it odd how little was made of what exactly went wrong, we were just told he picked up an injury unless I missed it somewhere
 
Good point regarding the number of races and year younger ... and injury. We might not find out until the Arkle either ... doubt they'll meet before.

If they don't fancy Min to beat Altior do you think they'll aim Yorkhill at this race? ... would be crushing for me if he didn't go JLT route but Ruby will want the best possible chances on Tuesday and if they have another for the JLT then it is feasible?
 
I feel Willie will have a number of novice chasers this season and there is quite a strong possibility I believe that he could have two bullets to fire in both the Arkle and JLT, for now I would feel min for role and yorkhill for JLT, but that could all change after their debut efforts compared to a certain altiors effort over fences first time out and throughout the season, as far as I know Min picked up a knock nothing major but was enough to not see him back on the track again last season, really can't wait for Mullins to do a stable tour/ open day and see what horses are doing what, although I know not too much will be given away!!
 
Only thing I have seen on Min is

"Min has not come out of Cheltenham well - he is out for the season," said Mullins. "He will be going out to grass."
 
I thought Min had picked up a slight tendon injury, as had Black Hercules, but I can't find anything on either of them
 
I'm trying to look for value, as I missed the 5's on Altior :mad:
Min at 8's appeals, but I would prefer to wait for news of well-being before backing.
Does anyone know if there are confirmed plans for Tombstone? 25's looks a decent price.
Is there a danger that he would go JLT if chasing? (20's for JLT)
 
Tombstone is going novice chasing Leman. Elliott has said that trips over two to two hand a half miles are ideal. I don't suppose that helps much.....
 
Well... it narrows it down to two (unless he doesn't take to fences...).
:confused:
 
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