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2017 Arkle Trophy Chase

Istabraq said:
Sprinter 6
Simonsig 7
UDS 11
Douvan 7

I think the same can be said of a few races, Gold Cup fields since Ryanair was introduced ???
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Yeh so if we know that is where Old Guard is going, at 33s, each way might look pretty mighty at 8/1 to place on the day...
 
I was starting to get convinced with his rating and course form but I'm not too sure about Old Guard, having looked into him a further I think he has a bit of a false rating, based primarily from his run in December at the course. I think at the time both the Henderson horses (Peace and Co and Hargam) had inflated reputations that now the season has unfolded have not lived up to anything like what was expected. Plus Sempre Medici is a good 3/4 tiers down from being top class. He got hiked up to 157 after that race.

In hindsight I think that rating is generous
 
You could be right Jono but even if he should be rated 150 over hurdles, being a 5 year old he should still be improving. My main concern if him being flat bred as I've never been a huge fan of flat types jumping fences.

At 33/1 though, I'm more than willing to take a chance.
 
It's Old Guard's age that makes me take notice, he has plenty of racecourse experience and if fit and taking to fences he'll be competing at the top table this year.
Ratings are always a debate but those in charge (of ratings) know an awful lot more than me so I have to take them literally, the only question is whether the horse is healthy and whether he can jump a fence, I think he has the talent to be a player as his defeat of the County winner in waiting showed
 
In my ever so humble opinion, national hunt horses ratings aren't as important as they are on the flat. The margins of victory can often be a lot bigger and it is much harder to get a grip on. The trips are further, they don't factor in 'mistakes' or not jumping straight, just loads of additional variables that need to be factored in. I mentioned earlier (or on another thread, that I do like the best hurdler when it goes chasing) and if it lends itself to my thinking then I like it, but I wouldn't ever use the ratings as a solid rule. If Old Guard starts jumping and looking 'a natural' (which he may not as Faugheen says about being flat bred) then his hurdle rating will be based upon the new code anyway.

I don't have the information now, but I imagine Sprinter Sacre's rating changed dramatically after he started popping a few fences. The fact that 'a fence' can bring out such improvement gets proven time and time again, so despite me liking to use hurdle form, I think chasing is so unique that seeing is believing.
 
I use the hurdle rating is a good indictor of a horses natural ability (if that's the right word). For example, a horse with a hurdle rating of 150+ is much more likely to make into a top class chaser. It's very rare that you get low rated horses that show top class form over the larger obstacles.
 
The top rated hurdlers have a good record in the Arkle for that reason.
 
Altior confirmed to be going over fences. Had a big bet at 5/1. Unfortunately I had a decent amount on him for the Champion hurdle :(

Don't think the 5/1 will last long
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Altior confirmed to be going over fences. Had a big bet at 5/1. Unfortunately I had a decent amount on him for the Champion hurdle :(

Don't think the 5/1 will last long
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Where have you seen that confirmed?
 
Broken just about every ante post rule I ever set myself and hit Altior at 5s.
We know this horse is special, we have to assume he can jump fences and if this one makes it to Cheltenham he'll be close to Evs on the day.
When the Champion Hurdle market starts getting populated I'll cover the Arkle bet with a few quid on this race just in case he doesn't jump and they re-route him mid season...
 
The racing post have some quotes from NJH. Basically says he thinks he could be a champion hurdle horse but if they don't go over fences now they never will. I have rather more invested than I am comfortable with but can't see anything that has the same class, providing he takes to fences
 
So if all goes well for altior over fences then are we safely assuming that yorkhill goes for the JLT, the current double on that pays 27/1 with betfair, only 21's with paddy power who have altior as short as 7/2 already
 
Top information billymag :encouragement: Just seen the announcement on Altior...just what I wanted to hear. So excited to see this one over fences
 
Bet 365 into 4s now, still 5s available with Hills and Victor...
 
Brilliant news.

Hopefully all goes well over the winter and he lines up in The Arkle
 
I got on the Altior / Yorkhill double when billymag broke the news (basically the same as my Min / Yorkhill double) so thanks for that. I've also hit the 5s with a single bet and had the double with Douvan.

If Min turns up hell be a solid each way price in my opinion buton the day, if Altior is evens I can see myself doubling every bet I have that day on. Absolute banker material. As good as if thistlecrack was going for the world hurdle.
 
BetVictor are still 41/1 for the Altior, Yorkhill double!
 
They also have Barters Hill at 20s for the RSA so I have got the treble .... Novice chases boxed off. :highly_amused:
 
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