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2016 JLT Novices Chase

Is KV Ok this morning ? Could have been sore after that ?

I was reminded of this ( Kauto missed Arkle after it)

Kauto Star's Cheltenham preparation met with an unexpected hitch at Exeter yesterday when the Paul Nicholls-trained Arkle Trophy favourite was narrowly beaten in dramatic fashion, writes J A McGrath.

Kauto Star started 2-11 for the three-runner Weatherbys Bank Novice Chase and looked set to win easily when going clear three out.

But all looked lost when he clipped the top of the second-last and fell - only for jockey Ruby Walsh to grab hold of the reins and quickly remount.

Having surrendered a 12-length lead to Mistral De La Cour (20-1), as well as around 10 seconds between the fall and the remount, Walsh then had to ride Kauto Star without his feet in the irons over the last and on the run-in. But he finished so strongly he failed by only a short head to overhaul his rival.

Although this was not an ideal way for Kauto Star to complete his preparation for the Arkle Trophy, for which he remains 5-2 favourite, Nicholls is unlikely to give him another run beforehand.

One punter was denied an £8,000 payout after backing Kauto Star at 999-1 on Betfair after the fall. Other Betfair punters backed the winner at 1-100 at the same time.
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Good post on Betfair about Zabana ( Tell Us More should frank the form today)

Starting last January he beat Sizing Codelco 6L giving 3lbs. Shaneshill beat the same horse last time 4L off levels, both horses made mistakes 2 out.

Zabana then ran 2nd to Aux Ptits Soins in the Coral Cup btn 1/4L off 144 and giving the winner 5lb and showing he acts at Cheltenham. APS now best priced 16/1 World Hurdle. Killultagh Vic won the boys race over C&D off 135.

Zabana then finished last season with a very creditable 3rd beaten 9L by Jezski and Hurricane Fly at Punchestown.

He has had 1 Novice Chase this season beating Blair Perrone almost 2L (yes KV would have won much further today against him) and another 5L back to Tell Us More but improvement is almost inevitable on his first run looking at last season.

I am not saying he is going to win or anything stupid like he's a certainty but at the prices i believe he is very good value 25/1 in comparison to Shaneshill/Killultagh Vic around 4 or 5/1. Many others in the AP list could also go to other races and there's an outside chance Zabana could go RSA,

Just my idea of a value bet.
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Leopardstown Trial ?

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Looks like Paddy thinks Garde la Victoire is heading here (now 12s for this & 20s for Arkle) though when you've beaten the second fav (Bristol) easily ( albeit over 2 miles) and that's as low as 4/1 and your 16/1 it probably has got half a chance of at least being placed and still an e/w shout where as in the Arkle you'll have Min, Vaniteux, L'Ami, Ar Mad etc. so would make sense - seems to have a better chance in this !
 
Personal wagers aside I'm looking forward to this race as being one of the best races along with the Gold Cup.I feel aside from the handicaps these are the two races which could be really exciting to watch in terms of competition with 5 or 6 horses in with a real chance of winning the respective races.Unfortunately too many of the big races have a one sided look to them which is tempering my enthusiasim this year.
 
Cashew King said:
Looks like Paddy thinks Garde la Victoire is heading here (now 12s for this & 20s for Arkle) though when you've beaten the second fav (Bristol) easily ( albeit over 2 miles) and that's as low as 4/1 and your 16/1 it probably has got half a chance of at least being placed and still an e/w shout where as in the Arkle you'll have Min, Vaniteux, L'Ami, Ar Mad etc. so would make sense - seems to have a better chance in this !
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This could be his route, I think Hobb's mentioned this last week. I think 16's for the JLT is a nice price.
 
Outlander for me showed he needed that extra furlong and a half at leopardstown on Saturday to really stamp his authority and show a bit of class, I'm not totally convinced by him dropping back in trip slightly, I'm still baffled as to why willie ran shaneshill hill at doncaster the last time as it was always going to be to sharp a test and we all know the horse wants further than that, couldn't have been a worse prep run for the featival, he was however my ante post punt so i hope he puts the run behind him and makes amends, apart from that it is hard to get away from Killultagh vic if he peforms as expected but there is now a doubt in my mind after willies last two raiding parties in england have failed miserably
 
KV ruled out of the festival. I wouldn't be surprised if it was linked to his mistake at the last fence lto!!
 
I was really looking forward to watching him run, even though I was wiling to take him on. Hopefully there aren't more to follow in the next five weeks.
 
With KV missing, who are the leading players in this race now?

BDM - I'd have concerns on decent ground
Outlander - Could run in the RSA or 4 miler
Sizing John - connections were favoring the Arkle
Shaneshill - terrible LTO but 2nd in two consecutive festivals
Garde La Victoire - His jumping worries me. Is this the confirmed target?
Activial - Classy enough?
Vaniteux and L'ami Serge - Arkle bound

I'll be leaving this until day of race now having already backed Shaneshill and Volnay De Thaix - and I've all but given up on them
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
KV ruled out of the festival. I wouldn't be surprised if it was linked to his mistake at the last fence lto!!
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Yep. Yeehaa said it the day after the race.

GLV / Vaniteux /Outlander my shortlist.


Vaniteux is pretty weak on machine for both Arkle and JLT :confused:
 
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He did OV but I haven't heard anything from connections about any injury sustained from the race and that race was 3 and a half weeks ago.

Nicholls might not be everyone's cup of tea but over the years he's generally been fairly open about his horses wellbeing.

These trainers need to realise the implications of their action/inactions, someone I know had a big (for him) bet on KV winning any race at the festival just after that race and of course that didn't come with the NRNB insurance, money done.
Bookmakers continued to take bets on a horse who was probably injured and if they arm themselves with friends in the right places they are effectively defrauding punters, nothing any of us can do about it !
Rant over !!!
 
Here Ista,,

Mullins told the Racing Post: "He seemed fine after Leopardstown but when we stepped up his work we discovered a suspensory problem. We don't know whether what happened at Leopardstown caused the injury or whether it was something that happened since.

"Unfortunately he's out of Cheltenham and it's unlikely that he will run again this season."
 
Gutting for all KV fans, yet it always happens as the festival approaches that high profile horses bite the dust.I think trainers give their horses every chance right up to the last minute if possible of making the big day but again it highlights the hazards of ante post betting.I wonder if any of those kind bookmakers will refund bets taken on KV.I wont hold my breath tho.
 
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