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2016 Grand National

  • Thread starter Thread starter Yeehaa
  • Start date Start date
We have to think Many Clouds will run so weights should not rise? Two that catch my eye are The Last Samurai and Morning Assembly
 
Fahy was thrilled with MA weight.

Its a great field really. Lots of Grade1 winners in there.

If Boston Bob had another wind op he might be a player ?
 
Bishops Road

Bishops Road put up a really good performance to win the Grand National Trial at Haydock last Saturday.

Held up out the back of the field by Richard Johnson through the early stages of the race, and not helped by a mistake at the second fence, Kerry Lee’s horse found his rhythm as the race progressed. He moved up in behind the leaders after they had jumped four fences, he was last of the group of five that broke away going down the back straight the final time. He jumped up into third place at the third fence down the back straight, he disputed the lead as they left the back straight, and he moved easily into the lead at the fourth last fence. He moved clear on the run to the third last and, although it appeared at the second last fence as if Broadway Buffalo was going to overhaul him, especially given the fact that his stamina for this three-and-a-half-mile trip was not proven, it was to Bishops Road’s immense credit that he stayed on as well as he did to repel the David Pipe horse.

This was an attritional contest, as it often is. Just eight set out, but only three came home, and all three finished tired. Bishops Road had never been beyond three miles before, and such was the pace that he showed to win over two and a half miles at Sandown on his previous run, the fact that he was able to see out this extreme trip as well as he did marks him down not only as highly-talented, but also immensely versatile.

The Heron Island gelding was a good horse for Gigginstown House and Henry de Bromhead in Ireland – he won a decent handicap chase at Leopardstown in January last year over two miles and five furlongs off a mark of 123 – but he appears to have progressed again this season. That run at Sandown was his seasonal debut and his first for Kerry Lee, and he was really impressive in winning by 17 lengths. The handicapper raised him 14lb for that to a mark of 144, but that didn’t stop him on Saturday.

The handicapper has given him another 10lb for Saturday’s win but, interestingly, because the Grand National is an early-closing race with no penalties, if he does make it to the Aintree line-up, he will be racing off his old mark of 144, not his new mark of 154. He will be 10lb well-in, and that makes him very interesting for the race.

His jumping is a little bit of a worry, he still has a tendency to miss one, and that is obviously not ideal with Aintree in mind. And he is only an eight-year-old, it may be that he needs to mature a little more in order to morph into a genuine National contender. That said, Many Clouds won the National last year as an eight-year-old, and the fact that Bishops Road is so well-handicapped this year means that connections have to have a go. Neptune Collonges was only just beaten by Giles Cross in the Haydock Grand National Trial in 2012 before going on to land the National off a 2lb lower mark.

20th February 2016
 
Donn

Grand National watch

It is interesting that, now that the Grand National weights have been published, trainers are discarding bushels and fearlessly shining lights all over the place. Remember, not only is the Grand National unique in that the British handicapper has a free hand in framing the weights and talking about them, it is also unusual in that a horse who wins after the weights have been framed is not subject to a penalty. The weights are cast in cement boots.

A few points worth noting then. For starters, horses who have run poorly since the weights were published, and who have consequently been dropped a couple of pounds by the handicapper – including Corrin Wood, Vics Canvas and Bally Beaufort – will be poorly-in should they get in and should they take their chance in the Grand National.

But the converse is also true. Improvers are well-in. Bishops Road won the Grand National Trial at Haydock last Saturday and has been raised 10lb to a mark of 154 as a result, but he will get to race in the National off his old weight of 144, so he will be 10lb well-in.

Silviniaco Conti has been raised 5lb by the handicapper for his Ascot Chase win to a mark of 169, but he will get to race in the National off his originally allocated rating of 163, which was 1lb lower than his official rating at the time. So, instead of being 1lb well-in, he will be 6lb well-in.

Unioniste and Boston Bob have both won since. Neither horse has been raised by the handicapper, so neither will be well-in in the National, but at least you know that they go into the race in good form.

Also, Saint Are won the Veterans’ Handicap Chase at Doncaster on Wednesday, and he is surely in for a little rise, so he should be well-in for the National too. Nobody could begrudge Tom George’s horse a National win, incidentally, given that he was beaten last year by a horse who was racing off a mark that was 5lb lower than his official mark on the day that the weights were published.
 
Fergal O'Brien has proved a genius with staying chasers, I'm on Perfect Candidate at 3 figure prices though is not certain to run, he also has last years third Alvarado who has 10st 2lb to carry, a trainer to watch closely in staying events for my money....
 
With Mullins going for trainers championship I'm hoping he talks Giggy into running Valseur Lido...ive taken 50/1 and can see the big step up in distance suiting him..would have run in Gold Cup if the two Dons were not around....c'mon Wullie...
 
For the time being I have a B365 account and they're NRNB, places 1-5 and best odds guaranteed (not that that's an incentive as everything will be half its' current price) but the NRNB is massive.
I've played Alvarado 40s and Saint Are 25s, I keep snapping up any bits and pieces of Perfect Candidate above 100s on the machine but that's about it for me now, I'll throw the odd dart on a 200/1 shot nearer the time....
 
My squad so far is:

Gallant Oscar 40/1
Goonyella 40/1
Onenightinvienna 50/1 & 94/1
Cause of Causes 40/1
Don Poli 20/1 nrnb

Had a small amount on Broadway Buffalo but he's been scratched.
 
Apart from Long Run are there many Non runners ?

NO. HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 1-6221 Many Clouds27 9 11-10 Oliver Sherwood 165 163 174
2 1-5113 Don Poli22 7 11-9 W P Mullins 164 157 173
3 1-22P1 Silviniaco Conti49 10 11-8 Paul Nicholls 163 160 183
4 9-4614 Carlingford Lough22 10 11-7 John E Kiely 162 152 177
5 12FU2 Valseur Lido23 7 11-6 W P Mullins 161 165 177
6 8432P First Lieutenant63 11 11-4 M F Morris 159 139 169
7 783P-2 Wonderful Charm120 8 11-3 Paul Nicholls 158 126 176
8 0-8634 Foxrock63 8 11-3 T M Walsh 158 108 171
9 223665 Third Intention24 9 11-2 Colin Tizzard 157 119 172
10 535PP7 Ballynagour23 10 11-2 David Pipe 157 128 173
11 P1P87 O´Faolains Boy22 9 11-1 Rebecca Curtis 156 126 176
12 1-3455 Gilgamboa23 8 11-1 E Bolger 156 166 179
13 3PP-45 Sam Winner70 9 11-1 Paul Nicholls 156 127 176
14 373PP- Lord Windermere364 10 11-1 J H Culloty - 156 — —
15 7U4828 On His Own22 12 11-1 W P Mullins 156 124 169
16 1F-662 The Druids Nephew35 9 11-0 Neil Mulholland 155 151 167
17 P3-15 Triolo D´Alene49 9 11-0 Nicky Henderson 155 132 174
18 P-2P40 Rocky Creek42 10 10-13 Paul Nicholls 154 145 176
19 F4/157 Sir Des Champs63 10 10-13 W P Mullins 154 100 173
20 112-23 Roi Du Mee161 11 10-13 Gordon Elliott 154 — 176
21 3-54P2 Holywell25 9 10-12 Jonjo O´Neill 153 145 181
22 15-3P Shutthefrontdoor35 9 10-11 Jonjo O´Neill 152 155 168
23 9-0413 Soll51 11 10-11 David Pipe 152 151 169
24 5-3243 Buywise70 9 10-10 Evan Williams 151 163 177
25 0-50P1 Boston Bob49 11 10-10 W P Mullins 151 143 171
26 10F-43 Turban49 9 10-10 W P Mullins 151 143 168
27 411209 Aachen35 12 10-10 Venetia Williams 151 135 171
28 3-224 Morning Assembly25 9 10-9 P A Fahy 150 133 172
29 24599 Double Ross25 10 10-9 Nigel Twiston-Davies 150 147 179
30 1F/39- Long Run692 11 10-8 Robert Waley-Cohen 149 — —
31 2-3942 Goonyella34 9 10-8 J T R Dreaper 149 126 172
32 1P-623 Ucello Conti79 8 10-8 Gordon Elliott 149 110 169
33 80312 Unioniste27 8 10-8 Paul Nicholls 149 128 175
34 P02615 Le Reve42 8 10-8 Lucy Wadham 149 152 174
35 3-1U75 Gallant Oscar34 10 10-8 A J Martin 149 141 172
36 1-1225 Onenightinvienna49 7 10-8 Philip Hobbs 149 145 177
37 12-311 The Last Samuri35 8 10-8 Kim Bailey 149 159 180
38 72-15 Kruzhlinin25 9 10-7 Philip Hobbs 148 143 174
39 S32254 Rule The World34 9 10-7 M F Morris 148 130 174
40 1040B Bear´s Affair23 10 10-7 Nicky Henderson — 135 173
41 031-09 Just A Par126 9 10-6 Paul Nicholls 147 149 171
42 0/P-P0 Katenko25 10 10-6 Venetia Williams 147 43 132
43 2-85P6 Vics Canvas49 13 10-6 Dermot Anthony McLoughlin 147 158 173
44 701-P5 Living Next Door100 10 10-6 A J Martin 147 — —
45 57-0U6 Black Thunder63 9 10-6 Paul Nicholls 147 138 175
46 B-4935 Ballycasey23 9 10-6 W P Mullins 147 147 173
47 1/6P-7 Hadrian´s Approach42 9 10-6 Nicky Henderson 147 149 169
48 04280U Spring Heeled25 9 10-5 J H Culloty 146 144 174
49 20-118 Mendip Express22 10 10-5 Philip Hobbs 146 — —
50 35113P Katkeau21 9 10-5 David Pipe 146 85 171
51 111U26 Vieux Lion Rouge25 7 10-5 David Pipe 146 150 173
52 45-15 Pendra112 8 10-5 Charlie Longsdon 146 102 175
53 12-671 Saint Are45 10 10-5 Tom George 146 163 178
54 7P8-46 Home Farm41 9 10-4 Henry De Bromhead 145 64 147
55 77F38 The Romford Pele24 9 10-4 Rebecca Curtis 145 146 173
56 150-30 Mon Parrain23 10 10-4 Paul Nicholls 145 126 169
57 214F4 Knock House23 7 10-3 Mick Channon 144 118 176
58 F30311 Bishops Road49 8 10-3 Kerry Lee 144 142 182
59 P-532P Shotgun Paddy21 9 10-3 Emma Lavelle 144 160 179
60 82F1P7 Pineau De Re35 13 10-2 Dr Richard Newland 143 146 172
61 4/54-8 Alvarado35 11 10-2 Fergal O´Brien 143 153 166
62 84-721 Highland Lodge126 10 10-2 James Moffatt 143 152 166
63 0-1356 Maggio27 11 10-2 Patrick Griffin 143 134 170
64 0-2510 Perfect Candidate23 9 10-2 Fergal O´Brien 143 136 172
65 36-4PP Present View147 8 10-2 Jamie Snowden 143 148 172
66 9-4217 Midnight Prayer23 11 10-1 Alan King 142 110 170
67 8-0051 Cause Of Causes23 8 10-1 Gordon Elliott 142 142 183
68 71058 Benbens45 11 10-1 Nigel Twiston-Davies 142 137 173
69 P-7125 Royale Knight49 10 10-1 Dr Richard Newland 142 148 170
70 116P5P Bally Beaufort25 8 10-1 Nigel Twiston-Davies 142 161 173
71 163/59 Double Seven69 10 10-1 Martin Brassil 142 — —
72 5361P Mountainous49 11 10-1 Kerry Lee 142 151 174
 
I'm struggling to find 10 never mind the 27 I need for Cause of Causes to get a run.
 
Royale Night was last horse in last year - I think he was 47 on the list this time last year

10-6s get in

10-5 probably tight ?

cause of causes still in the Irish version but probably too soon. Maybe Ayr ?
 
Morning Assembly

Fahy said: "He came back from Cheltenham well. He didn't have any cuts or bruises and we rode him out for the first time since this morning and he seems in great form.

"The Aintree National is definitely the plan and with Don Cossack winning the Gold Cup, you would have to say on his best form he must go there with a great chance.

"I was delighted with how he jumped in Cheltenham and it just proved the run before in Gowran was down to the ground. He just couldn't jump out of it that day.

"He was much better last week, apart from the third-last where he just took off too far off it.

"It's credit to the horse and to Davy (Russell) that he stood up as he barely made it. But for that he would definitely have been an easy third.

"We've plenty time enough before Aintree. He's all the work done and he's in tip-top shape, so it's just a case of freshening him up and giving him a couple of blows.

"I'm happy with where we are with the horse."

Fahy is keeping his fingers crossed Russell will be on board again at Aintree on April 9.

"Hopefully Davy will ride him," the trainer added.

"Davy is one of the cutest jockeys around and knows the horse well.

"He might have other commitments, so we'll just have to wait and see."
 
Long run retired, he was a much better horse than he was given credit for, too precocious for his own good really
 
Long run retired, he was a much better horse than he was given credit for, too precocious for his own good really

A brillant horse but probably not as loved as he should have been because he defeated Kauto and Denman.
 
A brillant horse but probably not as loved as he should have been because he defeated Kauto and Denman.

Not so sure, I think people just resent French breds who peak at 5/6, regress from 7 and are done by 8 or 9, that was a golden era for staying chasers and the fact there were 3 top top class horses enhanced the generation for me....
 
Saint Are looks well in again this year off 1lbs lower and went off at 25/1 last year. Can see him going off 16's this year.

Soll was well punted into 9's last year and was going well for a long way. Does anyone fancy him at 40's nrnb?
 
I just noticed in my exchanges acc I placed bets on Foxrock at prices from 130-300/1. :D