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2016 Gold Cup

Thomas Shelby said:
Anyone think Smad Place can win?
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Wouldn't be for me, I think he is more likely to set it up for the finishers, I don't think he will live with 3 or 4 of these, if he tries to burn them off he will kill his own chance. Having said that I've read a few opinions that make a good case for him running a big race, so you pays yer money you takes yer chance, have to go with your gut feeling sometimes
 
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MrMcGoldrick said:
Wouldn't be for me, I think he is more likely to set it up for the finishers, I don't think he will live with 3 or 4 of these, if he tries to burn them off he will kill his own chance. Having said that I' be read a few opinions that make a good case for him running a big race, so you pays her money you takes her chance, have to go with your gut feeling sometimes
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It pays not to look too far down the betting in this race. 14 of the last 15 winners for the first three in the betting.

The King George exposed his limitations.
 
Mytentoryours1 said:
It pays not to look too far down the betting in this race. 14 of the last 15 winners for the first three in the betting.

The King George exposed his limitations.
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Good stat MTOY

First three in betting will be ?
 
Old Vic said:
Good stat MTOY

First three in betting will be ?
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I'd be able to make a better stab at this when knowing the likely ground but it looks a fair long range forecast so Vautour, Don Cossack and Don Poli.
 
djakadam and cue card also make it but yeah follow market in grade 1s and ignore it in the handicaps
 
Odds today

Don Cossack (4), Vautour (5), Cue Card (11/2), Djakadam (11/2), Don Poli (6),


^ one of these wins 14/15 times

then


Smad Place (12), Road To Riches (16), Valseur Lido (20), Carlingford Lough (33), Many Clouds (33), Holywell (50), Sausalito Sunrise (50), OFaolains Boy (66), Sir Des Champs (66), Boston Bob (100), Champagne West (100), Gilgamboa (100), Irish Cavalier (100), Morning Assembly (100), On His Own (100), The Giant Bolster (100), Ballycasey (150)
 
I noticed Irish Cavalier was clipped in to 387/1 yesterday on Betfair:D
 
Ted Walsh worried about Djakadams jumping and favours Vautour.

Ruby is his own man but ....
 
Who rides the Gigginstown horses that Cooper doesn't pick?
Is it likely to be Russel that rides whoever Cooper doesn't pick out of Don Cossack and Don Poli?
 
Lucky Pete said:
Who rides the Gigginstown horses that Cooper doesn't pick?
Is it likely to be Russel that rides whoever Cooper doesn't pick out of Don Cossack and Don Poli?
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David Mullins will probably get one too.
 


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If Vautour is working as well as Willy says then there can only be one winner of the Gold Cup.
His Cheltenham form is impressive, he nearly beat Cue Card despite it being his first run. He will come on for that and as the younger horse you'd expect him to improve leaps & bounds.
The stats back him up as well, reading the Weatherby's guide, those trying for a second time if unsuccessful first time have a terrible record, that rules out Djakadam & RTR.
Horses who have run on heavy going that season also do not win that rules out DC & DP.
10 year olds don't win it so CC is out.
Have put on a fair wedge but am tempted to go in again. The stars appear to be aligning!
 
Brital said:
If Vautour is working as well as Willy says then there can only be one winner of the Gold Cup.
His Cheltenham form is impressive, he nearly beat Cue Card despite it being his first run. He will come on for that and as the younger horse you'd expect him to improve leaps & bounds.
The stats back him up as well, reading the Weatherby's guide, those trying for a second time if unsuccessful first time have a terrible record, that rules out Djakadam & RTR.
Horses who have run on heavy going that season also do not win that rules out DC & DP.
10 year olds don't win it so CC is out.
Have put on a fair wedge but am tempted to go in again. The stars appear to be aligning!
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I also think he'll run well brital but he has ran twice over fences this season.

Ruling a horse out because he's run on heavy ground is a poor stat, coincidental at best imo.
 
Hi FM,
I wasn't sure what to make of the Weatherby's guide but the one race it seemed to click for was the GC.
It has distilled the runners in an easy to follow logical way.

"Horses to have run on officially heavy ground that season are 0/65 this century"
Seems fairly convincing to me, maybe a 3m race in those conditions takes more out of a horse than we appreciate?

Vautour fits the profile of a typical Gold Cup winner to a tee. Back that up with the stables high regard for him and he seems the stand out choice. Can someone save me from myself :-)
 
Many Clouds paid a compliment to Smad Place there
 
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