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2016 Champion Hurdle

TimRiggins said:
I only had the day 1 acca, but it was from when Min was 6/1, and paid about 110/1.

Mate of mine had £100 on the same bet, so he is in bits.

Told him he cursed himself, whacking a photo of the slip on Facebook yesterday, asking about Annie's target.
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We all know a jinx Tim.
 
Artic Fire Lifetime NH Form is 123322F-21142

He couldnt win a county hurdle of 141. No thanks.
 
When 2nd last year he pulled well clear of the field, is this years field any better ?
This is the Mares thread....
 
Yeehaa said:
Artic Fire Lifetime NH Form is 123322F-21142

He couldnt win a county hurdle of 141. No thanks.
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True this is the mares thread should probably move across, but you're saying no thanks to Arctic fire like he hasn't got a chance and is an unworthy horse, who would your selection be and why...?? Plus you have his form up there but most of those placings are behind Faugheen and hurricane fly, would be a lot more 1's otherwise
 
Istabraq said:
I'd love betfair to post the trading on Faugheen over the past 24 hours, rumours rife in Ireland that those with knowledge there was an issue were laying the horse on betfair.
Surely an investigation at least, anyone found laying a 1/3 shot at a clearly inflated price should be named and shamed or the man on the street will forever believe the industry is bent from the inside....
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Just to let you know Ista - I was on the betfair exchange website early hours of Wednesday morning and the whole Cheltenham market was suspended. I didn't think much of it at the time but did wonder why.
 
stephensmith84 said:
I'm right there with you, mate. I don't mind the stakes I've lost in my portfolio so much, but the bets which I have lost are where I had Douvan at 4/1 etc...

The lost opportunity is colossal for me. I'm a bit down today at the news, so I've yet to gain a clear picture of what runs where. I have to say though, as a fan of the sport, it's dreadful news that Faugheen's out. Anyone taking joy at the news is misguided.

On a more positive not, my Cheltenham Festival guides from the Racing Post and Wetherbys arrive in a few days. Always great to have those drop through the mailbox.
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I had a feeling the Ricci multis would come unstuck early this but thought it would be Min who let the punters down. The other 3 looked bombproof. Even the machine isnt a machine.That is prickish gloating from value rater on your link Stephen. Havent a notion what wins now.

Annie - easier pickings elsewhere
Artic Fire - not as negative as Yeehaa but dont like the price
NC - last run looked flat
TNO - missed his chance ?
MTOY - looked fat and too settled in that Kempton spin
Peace & Co - this should have been his chance but ridiculously poor prep
Identity Thief - could only win in a poor year but maybe this is it

it could be a boilover

Old Guard
Camping Ground

have course form
 
loveracing said:
Just to let you know Ista - I was on the betfair exchange website early hours of Wednesday morning and the whole Cheltenham market was suspended. I didn't think much of it at the time but did wonder why.
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Thanks LR.
Betfair only do that for 2 reasons, declarations and when they pick up irregular activity.
They have 100 full time investgators monitoring every exchange market and report activity thety consider 'unusual', this operation was expanded when the hendo yard/connections were laying Binocular at 5s, 6s 10s etc when industry had him 7/2 fav for the champion hurdle when he was withdrawn becasue of the medication issue a few years ago.
For nothing other than curiosity I'd like to see a betfair statement...
 
Now that the dust has begun to settle (it will take a few more days of mourning for me) - what are AP's chances in the champion if she were to be supplemented? Not ideal preparation but does get the 7lb allowance. Connections should be best placed to know where she stands in the pecking order but is it just too much work to fit in, in under 4 weeks?
 
TheRowebot said:
Now that the dust has begun to settle (it will take a few more days of mourning for me) - what are AP's chances in the champion if she were to be supplemented? Not ideal preparation but does get the 7lb allowance. Connections should be best placed to know where she stands in the pecking order but is it just too much work to fit in, in under 4 weeks?
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I'm still shocked it's being considered.
She's been campaigned over 2m 4f to 3m for two years, to come back to the minimum trip having been trained with the longer races in mind all year is a stretch for me.

Just a thought on the Mullins owners, how do we think the Wylies (Nichols Canyon) and Arctic Bloodstock (Arctic Fire) will respond ?
They see the chances of their horses improve massively due to injury of the favourite then their trainer re-routes another of the yards horses to the championship race therefore reducing the chances of those horses.
How would you respond ?
 
I'm not that surprised to be honest, I think she has been campaigned at those distances to fit amongst the other superstars, any other stable and she is a champion candidate all day long. As for the owners, I guess that's the problem Willie faces having so many top owners but understandably they all want a presence in the top races.
 
I don't think wylie and bloodstock could complain too much they didn't have much chance beforehand and of course they can only expect ricci and willie to be considering replacing Faugheen with another runner from his ownership, they are not just going to give up one of the biggest races of the festival and just leave sempre medici in there with an outside chance...
 
Chris Cook, the reporter with The Guardian, has said Mullins spoke to Ricci an hour after the race yesterday and it was confirmed that it was more likely Annie Power would be supplemented fir the Champion Hurdle...
 
I'll be taking Annie Power on. What piece of form makes her a 2/1 chance? Ridiculous price.
 
I suppose you would have to go back to doncaster 2014 for form over 2 miles, that run was given a rating of 162, i think the major factor is the weight allowance she receives of 7lb, if she could put in that sort of display with that weight allowance then really she should be winning, but apart from that all her form has been over much further barring one run in may last year at punchestown over 2m 2f, she is what i would call an intriguing potential runner, the key word being potential, as it stands i do like the odds of Arctic fire around the 7/2 mark
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I'll be taking Annie Power on. What piece of form makes her a 2/1 chance? Ridiculous price.
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In a competitive year I would agree but its a weak race in my view.Mullins will know where Annie stands in the pecking order against Arctic Fire and Nicholls Canyon and if he would have Annie run in this race as opposed to the World Hurdle as he has said, then you have to think shes going to go very close.Its a difficult one with regard to her price and I can see the view of those that will want to opppse her but with the allowance she is the right fav.I woludnt go any more than 3/1 if I was a bookie.
 
She'd be the right fav if she'd ran in (and won) a champion hurdle trial this season. The fact she hasn't ran in a competitive race for 12 months and hasnt ran over 2 mile is a massive negative for me. I agree that it looks like a weak champion hurdle but it'll still take some winning for a horse with no sort of champion hurdle prep.
 
I'm not as sure that it's a weak race, I take the view that Faugheen was clear on ratings and the rest are bunched up behind.

Some good horses in the mix. I'm leaning towards Identity Thief e/w, but the price is absolutely miserable.

I'm not a layer, having only layed one horse in my life. That was At Fishers Cross who richly deserved it. But I'll consider a decent lay on Annie Power in the Champion Hurdle. Even at her best, I cannot see how she's clear of these horses.

I see 3-4 horses finishing in a line, with the tougher animal getting a head in front.
 
And what 4 horses clould you see in a blanket finish, Arctic fire was nicley clear in 2nd last year, I don't see any of hendersons horses getting near the mullins two of Arctic fire and Annie power if she runs, hargam, top notch and peace co have all let down and been part of what now looks a poor renewal of the triumph last year, my tent of yours to put it bluntly looked fat at kempton and would take an incredible amount of work to get him race fit and compete, and theres the new one who just doesn't do it for me
 
I think everyone is underestimating Sempre Medici at a much bigger price of 33/1. He is better "place" money than Identity Thief's win price and he saw off this horse by 5L last spring.
 
I think Hargam has a chance if the ground is good. Artic Fire and Annie Power can obviously win the race but neither have been missed in the market. Personally I'd back NC ahead of the other WPM runners.

I'd advise against anyone having a bet in this race at the moment thought as I could easily as it being 7/2 the field on the Tuesday morning.
 
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