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2015 Ryanair Chase

  • Thread starter Thread starter Morning Glory
  • Start date Start date
Other than UDS and maybe Vautour, I think I will taking on all of Mullins chasers again this year, epsecially the seasoned ones.
 
loveracing said:
Other than UDS and maybe Vautour, I think I will taking on all of Mullins chasers again this year, epsecially the seasoned ones.
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I'm thinking of watching the in-running market for UDS, with a view to laying him for a small amount if he is below 1.1 before the second last, if he meets the downhill fence in full flight when tiring it could be his undoing. Just an interest thing you understand, I would quite like to see him blast round and win going away, he's a very exciting horse, but I might risk a fiver to get £50
 
loveracing said:
Other than UDS and maybe Vautour, I think I will taking on all of Mullins chasers again this year, epsecially the seasoned ones.
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The stats would support that view. Might have you taking on those two as well.
 
Hobbs said: "At the moment it is more likely Wishfull Thinking will run [at Cheltenham] and Menorah will wait for Aintree. It's not written in stone and if something happened to Wishfull Thinking we might change our mind.

"Wishfull Thinking has better form round Cheltenham than Menorah. Although Menorah is a festival winner he has had four runs over fences with only one decent and the other three moderate. It probably makes more sense to go to Aintree where he runs better."
 
mayo said:
The stats would support that view. Might have you taking on those two as well.
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Yeah, I shouldn't have mentioned Vautour as I probably would take him on on the day, but doubt it with UDS.
 
loveracing said:
Did someone here mention Ballnagour?

Ignore his last run in the Hennesy, clearly not his trip and ground. 33/1 on good is a great e/w bet.
Looks like Pipe is targeting him at this race now Dynaste is out. Well the Fest always seem to be his target!

He was well fancied in 2013 7/2 and then won the Bryne last next year by 8L.
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Here you go OV. ;)
 
Mullins quoted In RP - looking at Gold Cup for Djakadam and Boston Bob
 
Can see the logic with Ballynagour given the way he won the Bryne Group over course and distance. Surprised at John's Spirit, he is a quality horse but hasn't exactly been missed in the market given all his best Cheltenham form is over the old course.
 
Mytentoryours said:
Can see the logic with Ballynagour given the way he won the Bryne Group over course and distance. Surprised at John's Spirit, he is a quality horse but hasn't exactly been missed in the market given all his best Cheltenham form is over the old course.
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Even though I backed JS I am no way confident with him now. The course form is putting me off.

Are there any quotes re pricewise and JS? I would like to see the logic behind their choice other than he ran well in the KG until mistake 3 out. I also don't think his 2nd in the PPGC is anything to boast about, though he did give weight.
 
MA FILLEULE ATR Tracker needed the run in the Betfair Ascot Chase having been off since early December. She and Balder Succes pulled a long way clear of the third horse, Ballycasey, who is very smart. Turning in I thought I might get to the winner but she’s a big mare who needs a lot of work and that lack of race-fitness told in the end. There’s more to come this spring and the run should have put her spot-on for the Ryanair Chase at the Festival.
 
Yes I can see why you might want to back him. Others preferred for me, Ma Filleule and Cue Card.
 
loveracing said:
Just found these two articles on Ballynagour. Though I don't who the authors are.

http://www.cityam.com/209331/road-cheltenham

http://www.pocklingtonpost.co.uk/sp...mbshell-dropped-as-mccoy-calls-time-1-7105171
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First one is @billesdaile


Interestingly, the last seven winners of this contest all ran in the King George that season and all were beaten at Kempton. That stat will please supporters of Cue Card, Johns Spirit and Menorah, but none make much appeal at the prices.

The one who I think is overpriced is David Pipe’s 33/1 shot Ballynagour, who was a hugely impressive win of the Byrne Group Plate at the Festival last year. He had Johns Spirit 15½ lengths back in fourth that day, yet Jonjo O’Neill’s runner is just 10/1.

Ballynagour is fragile, and has had bleeding issues in the past, but on his day he is very good indeed. He scored by 19 lengths at Warwick two years ago on his UK debut and then produced that demolition job at last year’s Festival.

He only has one entry this year and this race has surely been the plan for the whole season. There are obvious risks involved, but his price makes up for that and I can see him going off around 16/1 if he lines up.
 
Lester said:
First one is @billesdaile


Interestingly, the last seven winners of this contest all ran in the King George that season and all were beaten at Kempton. That stat will please supporters of Cue Card, Johns Spirit and Menorah, but none make much appeal at the prices.

The one who I think is overpriced is David Pipe’s 33/1 shot Ballynagour, who was a hugely impressive win of the Byrne Group Plate at the Festival last year. He had Johns Spirit 15½ lengths back in fourth that day, yet Jonjo O’Neill’s runner is just 10/1.

Ballynagour is fragile, and has had bleeding issues in the past, but on his day he is very good indeed. He scored by 19 lengths at Warwick two years ago on his UK debut and then produced that demolition job at last year’s Festival.

He only has one entry this year and this race has surely been the plan for the whole season. There are obvious risks involved, but his price makes up for that and I can see him going off around 16/1 if he lines up.
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I was lucky enough to be on Ballynagour last year and he won the Byrne really well. However, he was getting a small amount of weight that day and personally I don't think it was the strongest field. That said Good ground and being fresh are certainly his optimum conditions and if he is on a going day he's good value at 33s but can't see him winning.

Currently I think the value in the market is now with Taquin du Seuil (16/1 Ladbrokes). Back over his correct trip if you watch his last two runs he's actually run well until not quite staying the 3 mile trip on both occasions. Plus Jonjo is starting to peak at the ideal time and I think last years JLT winner is the standout at the prices currently
 
Lessey said:
I was lucky enough to be on Ballynagour last year and he won the Byrne really well. However, he was getting a small amount of weight that day and personally I don't think it was the strongest field. That said Good ground and being fresh are certainly his optimum conditions and if he is on a going day he's good value at 33s but can't see him winning.

Currently I think the value in the market is now with Taquin du Seuil (16/1 Ladbrokes). Back over his correct trip if you watch his last two runs he's actually run well until not quite staying the 3 mile trip on both occasions. Plus Jonjo is starting to peak at the ideal time and I think last years JLT winner is the standout at the prices currently
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Both Ballynagour and TDS have Festival form. If there is one thing we should have learned it should be to put that above everything we hear and most of what we see.

Agree with MTOY about Johns Spirit form on the New Course. Surprised Pricewise picked him above TDS of Jonjos.
 
Old Vic said:
Both Ballynagour and TDS have Festival form. If there is one thing we should have learned it should be to put that above everything we hear and most of what we see.

Agree with MTOY about Johns Spirit form on the New Course. Surprised Pricewise picked him above TDS of Jonjos.
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Well said OV. I was a little nervous yesterday as I throughly fancied Ballycasey for this but that hasn't worked out wonderfully currently. So I was looking for an alternative, Balder Succes is too short now. Taquin however seems to have slipped under the radar at 16s and I was certain Pricewise was going to jump on that but to my surprise it's still there this morning....
 
Lessey said:
Well said OV. I was a little nervous yesterday as I throughly fancied Ballycasey for this but that hasn't worked out wonderfully currently. So I was looking for an alternative, Balder Succes is too short now. Taquin however seems to have slipped under the radar at 16s and I was certain Pricewise was going to jump on that but to my surprise it's still there this morning....
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TDS is a great shout there Lessey. Would be good to find out who's preferred and who's riding the Jonjo horses in this race.

Even though JS was pricewised it didnt effect his odds by much. More movement with BN.
 
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