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2015 Arkle Trophy Chase

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>.<a href="https://twitter.com/Timeform1948">@Timeform1948</a> graph of past Arkle winner ratings and Un De Sceaux in the red. <a href="http://t.co/e3ABrDNAhe">pic.twitter.com/e3ABrDNAhe</a></p>— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) <a href="https://twitter.com/AtTheRaces/status/559690668621053952">January 26, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
I presume the 175 is Sprinter, I obviously misunderstood what he siad on ATR, higher than everything else though and those ratings were achieved in the Arkle itself. Just for info I notice that 888 bet have UDS at 3/1 with a run for the QM, like Iain said though, that's not how the Mullins camp normally operate. He's also 5/1 and below in some places for the JLT, can't see anyway he runs in anything but the Arkle.
I'm guessing the 165 is Simonsig, but they only have UDS at around 168 whereas it was mentioned that he was 171, is this the RPR rather than Timeform.
 
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MrMcGoldrick said:
I presume the 175 is Sprinter, I obviously misunderstood what he siad on ATR, higher than everything else though and those ratings were achieved in the Arkle itself. Just for info I notice that 888 bet have UDS at 3/1 with a run for the QM, like Iain said though, that's not how the Mullins camp normally operate. He's also 5/1 and below in some places for the JLT, can't see anyway he runs in anything but the Arkle.
I'm guessing the 165 is Simonsig, but they only have UDS at around 168 whereas it was mentioned that he was 171, is this the RPR rather than Timeform.
Click to expand...

First numbers were rating post ratings - second set from ATR are timeform.

The 165 will be the year before Sprinter - captain Chris beating Finians I think.

Simonsig was sick the day he won - and a lot of the time since it seems.
 
Pricewise was Sgt Reckless.

Nicholls will have probably one runner

"The plan with Vibrato Valtat is to go to Warwick for the Kingmaker a week on Saturday and then go to the Arkle. He will probably be the only runner I will have in the race. Ptit Zig is in everything but it's highly likely he will run in the two and a half. Solar Impulse won't run."

Willie on UDS

: "You couldn't have asked for more than he delivered at Leopardstown on Sunday.

"It was his biggest test over fences so far and he came through it with flying colours. Hopefully, we will get him to Cheltenham in top form. Because of the way he races, I don't see better ground being a problem for him."
 
mayo said:
Pricewise was Sgt Reckless.

Nicholls will have probably one runner

"The plan with Vibrato Valtat is to go to Warwick for the Kingmaker a week on Saturday and then go to the Arkle. He will probably be the only runner I will have in the race. Ptit Zig is in everything but it's highly likely he will run in the two and a half. Solar Impulse won't run."

Willie on UDS

: "You couldn't have asked for more than he delivered at Leopardstown on Sunday.

"It was his biggest test over fences so far and he came through it with flying colours. Hopefully, we will get him to Cheltenham in top form. Because of the way he races, I don't see better ground being a problem for him."
Click to expand...

Hi Mayo, I didn't realise Pricewise had tipped Sgt Reckless, I mentioned it here a couple of weeks ago, also saying I'd added Irving to it as a double just looking at what the place double pays, over 25/1. My reasoning mustn't be completely off the wall if Pricewise has seen the logic as well.
 
UDS is going to scare a lot of them off so finding something that should run and backing each way (like Sgt Reckless) sounds like a great strategy to me.
 
Old Vic said:
UDS is going to scare a lot of them off so finding something that should run and backing each way (like Sgt Reckless) sounds like a great strategy to me.
Click to expand...

I've been thinking about the ew element of a few of the races at Cheltenham this year and because of the number of very short price favs I think there are some great opportunities. People forget about the accumulative effect of the place part of an accumulator, especially when there are such big prices offered for top class horses. Maybe we could come up with a few ideas between us, perhaps the ante-post bets thread is the place for that, but worth considering in my view. eg; Sgt Reckless 20/1, Hurricane Fly 8/1 Champagne Fever 8/1 and Hargam 12/1, all 1/4 odds for a place, the place acca pays around 216/1, over 2 grand for a tenner, stick Kings Palace in there at 5/1 and you're near £5000, if they're all placed, £500 for a quid, you could have 10 goes.
 
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I've deleted the text because of double posting, don't know how to delete the post
 
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It will take me a while to sort this but trying to work out the field - started by looking at horses with multiple entries

Horse
Other
Age
Owner
Trainer
Entries
TURN OVER SIVOLA (FR)
-
8
International Plywood (Importers) Ltd
Alan King
GRUMETI
JLT
7
McNeill Family
Alan King
DEEP TROUBLE (IRE)
JLT
8
Lady Jane Grosvenor
Ben Case
YORKIST (IRE)
-
7
Mike And Eileen Newbould
Brian Ellison
SAIL BY THE SEA (IRE)
-
7
Roger Brookhouse
David Pipe
GILGAMBOA (IRE)
JLT
7
J P McManus
Enda Bolger IRE
COURT MINSTREL (IRE)
-
8
Janet Davies
Evan Williams
CHRIS PEA GREEN
-
6
C Green & Galloping On The South Downs
Gary Moore
CLARCAM (FR)
-
5
Gigginstown House Stud
Gordon Elliott IRE
SIZING GRANITE (IRE)
-
7
Ann & Alan Potts Partnership
Henry de Bromhead IRE
SMASHING (FR)
JLT
6
Ann & Alan Potts Partnership
Henry de Bromhead IRE
MELODIC RENDEZVOUS
JLT
9
Cash For Honours
Jeremy Scott
THREE KINGDOMS (IRE)
JLT
6
Bloomfields
John Ferguson
THREE KINGDOMS (IRE)
JLT
6
Bloomfields
John Ferguson
UN ACE (FR)
JLT
7
Ace In The Pack Partnership
Kim Bailey
LE VENT D'ANTAN (FR)
JLT, RSA
6
Goliath Syndicate
Liz Doyle IRE
MISTER SPINGSPRONG (IRE)
JLT
8
D Gilbert, M Lawrence, A Bruce
Michael Smith
SGT RECKLESS
-
8
Camilla Radford
Mick Channon
REAL STEEL (IRE)
JLT
7
Gigginstown House Stud
Mouse Morris IRE
RULE THE WORLD
JLT, RSA
8
Gigginstown House Stud
Mouse Morris IRE
DANCE FLOOR KING (IRE)
-
8
Mr Nick Elliott
Nick Mitchell
JOSSES HILL (IRE)
JLT
7
Alan Spence
Nicky Henderson
LITTLE JON
JLT
7
R Frosell & Mrs L Taylor
Nigel Twiston-Davies
APACHE STRONGHOLD (IRE)
JLT, RSA
7
Patricia Hunt
Noel Meade IRE
SOLAR IMPULSE (FR)
-
5
Andrea & Graham Wylie
Paul Nicholls
VIBRATO VALTAT (FR)
-
6
Axom XLIII
Paul Nicholls
PTIT ZIG (FR)
JLT, RSA
6
Chris Giles,Barry Fulton & Richard Webb
Paul Nicholls
BOLD HENRY
-
9
J P McManus
Philip Hobbs
DUNRAVEN STORM (IRE)
-
10
Karola Vann
Philip Hobbs
CHELTENIAN (FR)
JLT
9
Roger Brookhouse
Philip Hobbs
TOP GAMBLE (IRE)
JLT
7
Walters Plant Hire & James & Jean Potter
Richard Lee
MAN WITH VAN (IRE)
-
9
Jetmac Syndicate
Stuart Crawford IRE
GOD'S OWN (IRE)
JLT
7
Crossed Fingers Partnership
Tom George
STELLAR NOTION (IRE)
JLT
7
Roger Brookhouse
Tom George
TED VEALE (IRE)
-
8
John Breslin
Tony Martin IRE
COLD MARCH (FR)
JLT
5
Andrew Brooks
Venetia Williams
TANGO DE JUILLEY (FR)
JLT, RSA
7
Muhammad Nadeem Khan
Venetia Williams
TANGO DE JUILLEY (FR)
JLT, RSA
7
Muhammad Nadeem Khan
Venetia Williams
UPSIE (FR)
-
7
J P McManus
Willie Mullins IRE
FLORISHWELLS D'ETE (FR)
JLT
5
J P McManus
Willie Mullins IRE
GITANE DU BERLAIS (FR)
JLT
5
Simon Munir/Isaac Souede
Willie Mullins IRE
UN DE SCEAUX (FR)
JLT
7
E O'Connell
Willie Mullins IRE
ADRIANA DES MOTTES (FR)
JLT, RSA
5
Susannah Ricci
Willie Mullins IRE
JARRY D'HONNEUR (FR)
JLT, RSA
6
J P McManus
Willie Mullins IRE
VAUTOUR (FR)
JLT, RSA
6
Susannah Ricci
Willie Mullins IRE
VAL DE FERBET (FR)
JLT, RSA, NH
6
A Heffernan
Willie Mullins IRE
BLOOD COTIL (FR)
RSA
6
Susannah Ricci
Willie Mullins IRE

<tbody>
</tbody>
 
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The horses that only have one entry I thought more likely to run here.

So that left - I have bolded ones I defintely expect to run

TURN OVER SIVOLA (FR) - 8
YORKIST (IRE) - 7
SAIL BY THE SEA (IRE) - 7
COURT MINSTREL (IRE) - 8
CHRIS PEA GREEN - 6
CLARCAM (FR) - 5
SIZING GRANITE (IRE) - 7
SGT RECKLESS - 8
DANCE FLOOR KING (IRE) - 8
SOLAR IMPULSE (FR) - 5
VIBRATO VALTAT (FR) - 6
BOLD HENRY - 9
DUNRAVEN STORM (IRE) - 10
MAN WITH VAN (IRE) - 9
TED VEALE (IRE) - 8
UPSIE (FR) - 7

Horses with RSA entries likely to be in JLT or Novice Handicap.

Horses with Arkle and JLT entries possibles but likely to duck it now imo except those in bold

GRUMETI JLT 7
DEEP TROUBLE (IRE) JLT 8
GILGAMBOA (IRE) JLT 7
SMASHING (FR) JLT 6
MELODIC RENDEZVOUS JLT 9
THREE KINGDOMS (IRE) JLT 6
UN ACE (FR) JLT 7
MISTER SPINGSPRONG (IRE) JLT 8
REAL STEEL (IRE) JLT 7
JOSSES HILL (IRE) JLT 7
LITTLE JON JLT 7
CHELTENIAN (FR) JLT 9
TOP GAMBLE (IRE) JLT 7
GOD'S OWN (IRE) JLT 7
STELLAR NOTION (IRE) JLT 7
COLD MARCH (FR) JLT 5
FLORISHWELLS D'ETE (FR) JLT 5
GITANE DU BERLAIS (FR) JLT 5
UN DE SCEAUX (FR) JLT 7


will resume this later :)
 
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Oi oi Ruby - hold your slips

Although the betting seems to suggest that Vautour will go down the JLT Novices' Chase route now that Un De Sceaux has been slashed to odds-on favourite for the Racing Post Arkle, Walsh does not believe the issue is cut and dried.

"There is no doubt that Vautour will get two and a half miles but he also has the pace to follow Un De Sceaux around. I wouldn't say it's a done deal that he goes for the JLT. "
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Audio: PRICEWISE (Tom Segal) joins <a href="https://twitter.com/brucemillington">@brucemillington</a> (RP Editor) & co to reveal his 66/1 Arkle tip! >>
<a href="https://t.co/FBvoaMke4Z">https://t.co/FBvoaMke4Z</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cheltenham?src=hash">#Cheltenham</a></p>— Boylesports (@BoyleSports) <a href="https://twitter.com/BoyleSports/status/560173655234052096">January 27, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Paul Nicholls accepts Un De Sceaux will be very hard to beat in the Racing Post Arkle at Cheltenham.
The Ditcheat handler will saddle one of the leading British contenders in Vibrato Valtat, due to run in the Kingmaker at Warwick next week.

But having seen Un De Sceaux demolish two smart sorts in Clarcam and Gilgamboa he is well aware of the task his grey will face on the opening day of the Festival.

"He'll give Vibrato Valtat a nice lead round anyway!" Nicholls joked on At The Races.

"No, he was very impressive indeed and you'd have to think that if he jumps round he'll be very hard to beat."
 
Yeehaa said:
Oi oi Ruby - hold your slips

Although the betting seems to suggest that Vautour will go down the JLT Novices' Chase route now that Un De Sceaux has been slashed to odds-on favourite for the Racing Post Arkle, Walsh does not believe the issue is cut and dried.

"There is no doubt that Vautour will get two and a half miles but he also has the pace to follow Un De Sceaux around. I wouldn't say it's a done deal that he goes for the JLT. "
Click to expand...

Listening to ATR earlier today there was an interview with AP where he was asked about UDS, he told the interviewer that he said he would have been his choice out of all Rubys rides at the festival for the Arkle. The interviewer said so you think he'll win the Arkle then, AP's reply was yes, or the Queen Mother if they go there. I know we've said we couldn't see it happening but it makes you wonder what is said in the weighing room, and can you imagine the carnage in the ante-post markets if it was confirmed that they would go that route. it also adds more to Rubys comment that the JLT isn't a done deal for Vautour, they must be discussing it, I suppose it all depends on how much influence Willie has on the owners because he will want to stick to the novice route I'm sure. Perhaps the owners want to see what is actually going to turn up for the QM.
 
Any vautour fans out there should take the price now for Arkle if they are worried which race he's going for, same applies to UDS fans that are worried which race he goes for but for me the two people who havent mentioned UDS for QM are Mullins and Walsh and that will do for me.
 
iainmcf said:
Any vautour fans out there should take the price now for Arkle if they are worried which race he's going for, same applies to UDS fans that are worried which race he goes for but for me the two people who havent mentioned UDS for QM are Mullins and Walsh and that will do for me.
Click to expand...

I would agree with that and as I ponder the ones who are, bookies aside, it strikes me that maybe they would like to force the issue to get UDS out of the Arkle. Both AP and Enda Bolger have commented on him running in the QM and, as far as I can tell, neither have viable options themselves for the QM, but both may consider themselves to have a chance in the Arkle if UDS wasn't in it. Having said that, as part of his comments Enda did say that they would be stepping Gilgamboa up in trip but I'm sure many plans would change were UDS to be re-routed.
 
UDS will run in the Arkle
vautour in JLT
And Champagne Fever in the Champion Chase.

You can thank me later :)
 
Sail by the sea. 80s on Betfair and running according to Pipe. Probably better form than last years winner :p
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Josses Hill declared for Kempton tomorrow. Faces Third Intention, Caesar Milan & Thomas Crapper. Decent enough test for him.</p>— Cheltenham Zone (@CheltenhamZone) <a href="https://twitter.com/CheltenhamZone/status/563310791257251842">February 5, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Has anyone paid out on UDS yet :)
 
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