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2014 Champion Hurdle

Pat Keane

Hurricane Fly faces an uphill struggle to win a third Champion Hurdle, that’s the only logical summation surely of his less than impressive win in Sunday’s Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown.

We know he worked exceptionally badly, at least once, in preparation for the race and that he suffered a stone bruise as well.

But Willie Mullins is such a professional that he would not have dared risk the horse unless more than satisfied he was mentally and physically ready to do himself justice.

The fact that 13-year-old Captain Cee Bee, who is rated 26lbs inferior to the Fly, was beaten less than three lengths raises major questions marks about the value of this race.

We can dress it up all we want, but there seems little doubt that Hurricane Fly will need to make a major step forward in the coming weeks.

I suppose a decent case can be made for Sunday’s second, Our Conor, on the basis he simply exploded around Cheltenham last year when winning the Triumph Hurdle.

But we cannot have it both ways. If we’re throwing cold water on Hurricane Fly’s prospects then Our Conor has to be lumped into the same pot.

Jezki finished fourth of four behind Hurricane Fly and the hold-up tactics used really were mind-boggling.
 
Notably, Walsh declined to agree that he would definitely ride 19 times Grade One winner Hurricane Fly rather than Un De Sceaux (or, indeed, Annie Power) in the Champion Hurdle.

Although he relied repeatedly throughout the show on the line "it depends on how they are on the Sunday before", this particular poker face was a significant moment in the Half-Term Report.

"You never know," he responded, finally. That said, jumping this particular ship would be the boldest of bold shouts, even for one with the stone-cold confidence of Walsh.

He acknowledged that, despite winning two Champion Hurdles, Hurricane Fly was probably yet to match his absolute best Irish form at Cheltenham. Yet he was inclined to blame that on his own tactics, in differing ways, on both occasions rather than link it to the track's topography.

His description of Un De Sceaux is worth quoting in full: "He's just able to go a very strong gallop and sustain it right through the middle part of the race and on into the end of the race. He doesn't have to slow down at any point to get a breath," Walsh said. That witness statement only underlines the visual impression of this horse.

It was a huge shame that Sandown's hurdle races were abandoned on Saturday or else we Brits might have got to see this mighty young talent in the flesh. In the scenario that he runs in the Champion and Walsh rides Hurricane Fly, he said Un De Sceaux "won't get a soft lead", as he has been accustomed to under Walsh so far. He did question whether the young pretender has the experience for this race. However, it was crystal clear he doesn't question whether the horse has the talent for it. 12/1 non-runner-no-bet is not without its appeal - even in clearly the most widely competitive championship race of the 2014 Festival.

Walsh also acknowledged Our Conor as an evolving threat, expecting him to be a better horse at Cheltenham, better still at Punchestown and perhaps reaching his peak this time next year.
 
Paul Jones

With regards to Our Conor's Stan James Champion Hurdle prospects, probably the most trotted-out statistic at the whole meeting you will hear is that only one five-year-old has won since See You Then back in 1985, and 90 have tried in the interim.

And not without good reason: that is not good with one winner in a substandard renewal since 1985 but, then again, none of those other 90 five-year-olds had posted a higher figure as a four-year-old so, not only is he not your average five-year-old taking his chance, but he is also not your average JCB Triumph Hurdle winner either – so I don't think we are comparing like with like.

Not so much, however, will be discussed about the excellent record of five-year-olds placing in the Champion Hurdle of late and Countrywide Flame at 16-1 became the latest last season. In fact, over the last seven seasons a total of 19 five-year-olds have gone to post of which six have hit the frame including Katchit's success, and three others were also on the cusp of placing.

So, in examining the statistical chance of Our Conor, do we therefore ignore the paucity of winning five-year-olds since the mid-80s or instead prefer to concentrate on their overall good record of top-three finishers? Your call.
 
UDS running or not will shape the race :confused:

If he takes his chance then it will be truly run rather than a stop start tactical affair. It might suit The Fly better if he doesn't run as he probably has the best turn of foot ?
 
The mare is on the drift :confused: World Hurdle beckons ?
 
KingSprinterSacre said:
Heres how I see things panning out for Mullins horses. Barmy I know but its just something ive been thinking the last few weeks.

Hurricane bows out at the top - wins at Cheltenham and A) either is only campaigned in Ireland next year or B)is retired at the top of the game altogether .

Un De Sceaux - goes to Aintree this year NOT Cheltenham. Will be Mullins champion hurdle horse next year.

Annie Power - will go world hurdle before going chasing next year - boston bob will move to Gold cup with Rubi Ball having been ruled out for the season.
Click to expand...

Id say Ruby would be happy with that - gets to ride them all.
 
Bazza free to ride Jezki now :)
 
With less than four weeks to go until The Festival, the sense of anticipation intensifies today as the acceptors for the five main Championship contests are revealed.

The £400,000 Stan James Champion Hurdle on the opening day, Champion Day, Tuesday, March 11 has 11 entries going forward. Defending champion Hurricane Fly, the winner in both 2011 and 2013, heads the contenders and is one of six Irish-trained horses still engaged.

According to Timeform, the main threat to the Willie Mullins-trained superstaris his undefeated stable companion Annie Power, who has 1lb to spare on weight-adjusted ratings. The Halifax-based organization rate Hurricane Fly 184, with Annie Power on 185p. Which race Annie Power will contest at The Festival has still to be decided as she is also in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle and has other options.

Mullins also has another unbeaten possible runner, Un De Sceaux (169P), and Thousand Stars (174) in the Stan James Champion Hurdle.

The Nicky Henderson-trained My Tent Or Yours is rated the best of the British hopes on 183, with last year's Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle winner The New One next on 182.
 
AP

Hurricane Fly was very impressive when winning the Irish Champion Hurdle and he is still the one they have to beat at Cheltenham. People will question the form and say Captain Cee Bee was not beaten far, but you have to remember that Hurricane Fly was in trouble coming to the last and still won by a length and a half. He keeps on winning and until that changes he is the one to beat. I rode Jezki in the race and we finished fourth, but looking back we have been riding him wrong as he wants two and a half miles and I think positive tactics will see him to much better effect. If he is more positively ridden in a strong-run Champion Hurdle then he has definitely got an each-way chance.

JP also has My Tent Or Yours in the Stan James Champion Hurdle and I’m not sure if he runs at Kelso on Thursday – that’s in the trainer’s hands – but I will be leaving a decision on who I ride in the Champion Hurdle until the last moment. Things are very much up in the air at the moment and I probably won’t make the choice until the day before.
 
Nigel Twiston-Davies expects the stiffer stamina test of Cheltenham to suit The New One more than his Christmas Hurdle conqueror My Tent Or Yours when they meet again in the Stan James Champion Hurdle next month.

Winner of the Neptune Novices' Hurdle at the big meeting last season, The New One was successful at Kempton and Cheltenham in the first half of the season before his meeting with Nicky Henderson's Fighting Fifth winner at Kempton over Christmas.The New One appeared to hold the upper hand approaching the final flight but he hit it hard, handing the initiative to My Tent Or Yours and he went down by half a length.

However, Twiston-Davies feels a return to his local track will see him in a much better light.

"The New One is top-class, he did a very good bit of work on Tuesday and we're looking forward to Cheltenham," Twiston-Davies told At The Races.

"I think we can turn the form around with My Tent Or Yours, I think most people think Cheltenham will suit our horse more than My Tent Or Yours and a really true-run race, which it will be, will also suit him better.

"It's more of a stamina test with the hill and it should suit our horse more I should think."

Keep him sweet Nige ,Keep him sweet.
 
:cool: No mention of the schooling :p
 
Ptit Zig

There's only 11 left in the Champion Hurdle and if the ground remains soft he could run well in the race. He could go there, I've nothing else for the race and he's the sort who could run into a place if it cuts up. He gave 4lb to Melodic Rendezvous when he got beat and there's nowhere else he could go. That would be it for him before he goes chasing.
 
The highlight of the first day of Cheltenham’s 4 day Festival, which kicks off on the 11th March, is the Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy, the big one for 2 mile hurdlers. Since 1998 ten winners have come from Ireland and last year Hurricane Fly became only the second horse ever to regain the title after winning it in 2011. He now looks to follow in the footsteps of the great, Sea Pigeon, and become only the second horse in last 50 years to win this aged older than 9.


Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-6-27

6yo: 2-4-37

7yo: 4-3-26

8yo: 2-4-22

9yo: 1-2-9

10yo: 0-1-5

11yo+: 0-0-10

9 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 9, they represented just over 70.8% of total runners.

The only 5yo winner in the past 25 years was Katchit in 2008, and Sizing Europe did look the likely winner of the race before losing his action between the final 2 flights.

Horses aged 10+ have record of 0-1-15 since 2004, the only winner aged 10+ in the last 50 years was Sea Pigeon in 1980/81.



Horses that ran well in this aged 5

Record of horses that had finished in first 4 as 5yos in following renewal:

In 1997 Theatreworld was 2nd as a 5yo and was 2nd in 1998

In 1997 I’m Supposin was 4th as a 5yo and was 3rd in 1998

In 2000 Hors La Loi was 2nd as a 5yo and won next running as a 7yo in 2002

In 2007 Afsoun was 3rd at as a 5yo and was 7th in 2008

In 2008 Katchit won it as a 5yo and finished 6th in 2009

In 2008 Punjabi finished 3rd as a 5yo and won it in 2009

In 2009 Celestial Halo finished 2nd as a 5yo and finished 4th in 2010

In 2009 Binocular finished 3rd as a 5yo and won it in 2010

Since 1997 there have been eight runners in the Champion Hurdle that had finished in the first 5 as 5yos in the previous renewal, they finished 32176141 (3-2-8).



Gender

The 3 mares (0-0-3) to run in the past 10 renewals have been unplaced. Since 2000 only Bilbao has made the frame when she finished 3rd in 2002. That year the first 2 in the betting went wrong during the race (Istabraq pulled up and Valiramix slipped up). It’s safe to say she would not have made the places had Valiramix completed.



Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners won last time out (exceptions finished 2nd or 3rd in a grade 1 or 2)

8 of 10 winners (last 4) posted an RPR of 160+ last time

10 of 10 winners had run since Christmas

9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season

8 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles (2 exceptions were 2nd season hurdlers that finished in first 4 in previous year's Supreme or Neptune)

8 of 10 winners were second or third season hurdlers (2 exceptions were 3rd in previous year's Champion Hurdle)

8 of 10 winners had previously won a grade 1 hurdle (Sublimity had finished 4th in the previous season's Supreme Novices & Rock On Ruby had finished narrow 2nd in two grade 1's)

The 10 winners had collectively had 32 prior hurdles starts the year they won it. In the 31 they completed, they finished in first 3 in 30 of them.



Big Field Form

When looking at the form of the past 10 winners, it is noticeable that their recent form in bigger fields was superior to that of form in smaller fields when running in hurdles races over 2M to 2M 1F.

Last 10 winners’ combined last 4 runs in 2M-2M1F hurdles with 10+ runners: 26-6-33

Last 10 winners’ combined last 4 runs in 2M-2M1F hurdles with 9 or fewer runners: 18-8-35

The last 10 winners had finished in the first 4 on all of their last 4 starts in 2M-2M 1F hurdles with 10 or more runners.



Last year’s race

Hurricane Fly regained the title when winning last year’s Champion Hurdle by 2½ lengths from Rock On Ruby, and while Hurricane Fly has done little wrong since, winning 3 grade 1 hurdles from 3 runs since, those in behind haven’t done a huge amount for the form. Runner-up, Rock On Ruby, has been unplaced in both hurdles runs since, 3rd Countrywide Flame was 5th in Aintree Hurdle on only hurdles run since. 4th Zarkandar did win the Aintree Hurdle on next start, but has lost out on all 3 runs this season. The other 3 runners to run since over hurdles have were unplaced next time.

The combined subsequent hurdles record of all 9 runners is 4-1-13, though that becomes 1-1-10 if you ignore Hurricane Fly's 3 wins.

The form next time out of the 10 horses, to come out of the race and run under NH rules since, reads 1251056 (2-0-7).



Cheltenham Festival Form

Defending Champion Hurdler (Hurricane Fly): 213246932 (1-5-9)

Triumph Hurdle winner (Our Conor): F612353 (1-3-7)

Neptune Investments Novices' winner (The New One): 12 (1-1-2)

Highest placed finisher from previous Neptune Investments Novices' to run in this: 1621 (2-1-4)

Highest placed finisher from previous Supreme Novices to run in this: 635P0305P (0-2-9)

5 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Champion Hurdle, finishing 13331

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Neptune Investments Novice Hurdle, finishing 12

4 of 4 second season hurdlers finished in first 4 in a grade 1 novice hurdle at previous festival

5 of 10 winners had won a race at the Cheltenham Festival (4 others had finished in first 4 in Champion, Supreme or Neptune)

9 of 10 winners finished in first 4 over hurdles at previous Cheltenham Festival (exception was Hurricane Fly in 2011 who might have won at previous 2 Festivals but for injury)



Other races

Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 1116131 (5-1-7)

Leopardstown Dec Festival Hurdle (Hurricane Fly): 75120611 (3-1-8)

Irish Champion Hurdle winner: 4514006131 (3-1-10)

Morgiana Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 21F961 (2-1-6)

Fighting Fifth Hurdle winner (My Tent Or Yours): 25P010223 (1-4-9)

Hatton's Grace Hurdle winner (Jezki): 21 (1-1-2)

Contenders Hurdle winner: 006721 (1-1-6)

Kingwell Hurdle winner: 386P1004 (1-1-8)

Previous year's Finesse Juvenile Hurdle winner (Rolling Star): 1 (1-0-1)

Follow Navan On Facebook Hurdle winner (Un De Sceaux): 1 (1-0-1)

International Hurdle winner (The New One): 89623254 (0-3-8)

Ascot hurdle winner (Annie Power): 432 (0-2-3)

Champion Hurdle Trial winner (Melodic Rendezvous): 24379 (0-2-5)

Christmas Hurdle winner (My Tent Or Yours): 325004 (0-2-6)

Read Nicholls & McCain on Betfair Hurdle winner (Rolling Star): 3U (0-1-2)

Dornan Engineering Hurdle winner (Annie Power): 93 (0-1-2)

Evening Herald Champ Novice Hurdle winner (Jezki): 3F8 (0-1-3)

Elite Hurdle winner (Melodic Rendezvous): 049 (0-0-3)

Top Novice hurdle winner (My Tent Or Yours): 00P0 (0-0-4)

5 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 11111

5 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Istabraq Festival Hurdle, finishing 73111

4 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 3111

2 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Morgiana Hurdle, finishing 11

2 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Red Mills Trial Hurdle last time, finishing 21

3 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Fighting Fifth, finishing 315

3 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Christmas hurdle, finishing F32

2 of 4 British-trained winners ran in the Kingwell Hurdle last time out, finishing 13



Trainers

Irish trained runners (6-5-51) have won 6 of the last 10 runnings.

Nicky Henderson (2-5-15) has saddled 2 winners and 5 places from 15 runners in past 10 renewals.

Dessie Hughes (2-1-5) trained Hardy Eustace to gained 2 wins and a 3rd while Willie Mullins (2-1-8) has saddled Hurricane Fly to finish 1st-3rd-1st in last 3 years.

Paul Nicholls (1-1-8) & Alan King (1-0-6) have both trained the winner once in past 10 years.

Donald McCain (0-2-5) has trained the runner-up in 2011 & 2012.

Harry Fry (0-1-1), Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-1-2) & Jessica Harrington (0-1-3) have each trained the runner-up in past 8 years.



Price

5 of the last 7 winners have been sent off between 9/1 and 22/1

Longer prices have held sway in this in past 7 years with Hurricane Fly’s two wins at 11/4 & 13/8 the only 2 recent winners priced shorter than 9/1.

Favourites (4-3-11) have won 4 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 0.38.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Gelding aged 6 to 9

- Won last time out (or placed in grade 1 or 2)

- Posted an RPR of 160+ last time out

- Run 2 to 5 times this season

- 2nd or 3rd season hurdler or finished in first 3 in 2013 Champion Hurdle

- Finished in first 3 on last 4 runs in 2M-2M 1F hurdles races with 10+ runners

- Previously won a grade 1 hurdle

- Finished in first 3 in 2013 Champion Hurdle or won another race at 2013 Festival

- Won the Punchestown Champion Hurdle

- Irish-trained that finished in first 3 in Irish Champion and/or Istabraq Festival Hurdle

- British-trained that finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth and/or Christmas Hurdle

- Ran in Kingwell, Contenders, Red Mills Trial or Irish Champion Hurdle last time

- Trained by Nicky Henderson or in Ireland
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...e-trends-2014-1390171256#sthash.yBTEFFuk.dpuf
 
Defending Champion Hurdler (Hurricane Fly): 213246932 (1-5-9)
Click to expand...

Really is hard to do these back to back. Striking what a good pointer the previous Punchestown Champion Hurdle has been though..Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 1116131 (5-1-7)

I want to back The Fly but a little voice keeps telling me No. Imagine he will get taken on by books on the morning of the race too:confused:
 
Our Conor boys talk about true run race and a few hours later WPM says UDS probably not running (in around about way). Suspected this all along when Townend never got the leg up at Gowran.


Barry Connell for the record

"He looks the one horse who is capable of improving again," said Connell.

"It turned into a sprint in the Irish Champion and that didn't really suit him.

"It's all systems go now, we're very happy with him and he couldn't be with a better man in Dessie.

"Last season he improved and improved with every run and that is proving to be the case again, he was much closer to Hurricane Fly second time.

"What we need is a true-run race and, being a Champion Hurdle, 99 times out of 100 you get that."
 
Am I the only one thinking that maybe the Hurricane wont even show up this year?? If push comes to shove with Rich Ricci and he wants Annie Power to run, and with Hurricane Fly there for the taking based on (i) age (ii) course preference and (iii) struggle last time out, not so much with how hard the race was but how close Captain Cee Bee finished, imo there's more than a decent chance that the champ is kept for Punchestown and wont even show up this year???
 
theporge said:
Am I the only one thinking that maybe the Hurricane wont even show up this year?? If push comes to shove with Rich Ricci and he wants Annie Power to run, and with Hurricane Fly there for the taking based on (i) age (ii) course preference and (iii) struggle last time out, not so much with how hard the race was but how close Captain Cee Bee finished, imo there's more than a decent chance that the champ is kept for Punchestown and wont even show up this year???
Click to expand...

I think The fFy will get a shout at it. Id be thinking he wont run UDS because the pace will potentially suit every other horse apart from The Fly. FWIW I also think it s the race Annie Power should be running in. I remember Ted Walsh totally dismissing "The Stayers" on the Morning Line a few years ago and nearly saying that Big Bucks should be in the Champion Hurdle.
 
Timeform ‏@Timeform1948 6m

Un de Sceaux's new Timeform rating confirmed as 168p. Here's how he fits into the current Champion Hurdle picture:
BgrznQ3CIAAVS6Y.jpg




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He doesnt then. Willie is right :confused:
 
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