mayo
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It was a good double last year (collateral form) but way too skinny for me this far out.
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2014 Champion Hurdle
- Thread starter Old Vic
- Start date
It was a good double last year (collateral form) but way too skinny for me this far out.
Rhinestone Cowboy
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Dont go there with Simonsig mayo. I had him in a most of my early lucky 15s for the Champion. The way he pulled in Arkle hard to imagine he could have won though ( and reportedly scoped badly afterwards).
Fascinating Champion Hurdle this year imo. Will be plenty of racing people shouting for Our Conor after Barry Connell's fine gesture. Jezki is the one that I am looking forward to seeing - back at Down Royal - Jessie will probably take her old Macs Joy route to March.
... and welcome to The Judge and Donka.
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Hi mayo,Thanks for the welcome,
Totally agree mayo The New One was very impressive,I'm well chuffed & just a little relieved too as i have a very fat wedge on him ante post.
The neptune trend seems very strong i must admit,But the opposite is true especially about the Supreme hurdle -Shocking stats.
I try not to let the stats influence my selections but if i were considering backing MTOY or Jezki (which i'm not ) for the champion i would be worried.
@ OV,Hoof & RC Thanks for the welcome & comments.Be Lucky
Oh yeah I too would have backed Simonsig for the CH if he had ran.
My thoughts & opinions about the main Champion hurdle contenders –
Rock On Ruby – Even though he may have needed the run at kempton he was still firmly put in his place by The New One and I can’t for the life of me see him reversing that form. He’ll be nine next year so he won’t be improving & now he’s coming up against some smart young horses who are.
Grandouet – If he does go for the Champion then I’m more than happy to put a line through him as I would not back him with an enemies cash. His jumping can be dodgy as well as being a weak finisher but the main reason for not wanting him is that there is absolutely nothing in his past form that suggests he’s good enough to win a Champion.
Jezki – Very good horse who is highly thought of and sure to win a top race or two in Ireland but at Cheltenham I’m not so sure. Seems to go best on a flatter track on soft/heavy ground . Only beaten twice but both of those defeats came at the festival. There’s no doubt that connections were very disappointed after the Supreme with Mrs Harrington at a loss to explain another defeat at Cheltenham only to say she thought the hill may be the problem.
There’s enough doubts for me not to be interested in backing him.
My Tent Or Yours – Another smart JP McManus horse who has looked a world beater on occasions only to look like a bridle baby on others. I was on him at 10s for the Supreme but I must admit I had a niggle in mind about him around Cheltenham and so it proved to my cost ,He held every chance but didn’t find enough.
He refuses to settle and has too many quirks for my liking.
Hurricane Fly – Will surely go down as one of the greats but I have serious doubts about his 2014 Champion chances. Last year he was outpaced then stayed on past horses that had spent all their energy by going too fast too early. I don’t believe he has the speed to cope with some of the youngsters and it would not surprise me if he didn’t make the frame. Although not a gilt edged stat lets not forget that at last years festival The New One came home five seconds faster than the Fly from the second last to the line.
Our Conor – Exciting horse who travels & jumps brilliantly, I have him as the biggest danger to The New One next year & Dessie Hughes thinks he’s a bit special and the one to beat in the Champion.
There’s the five year old stat that’s always talked about but to be honest I’d be more concerned about the change of jockey & breaking up a winning pairing, I’m reluctant to back a horse in a championship race with a novice rider on board, That being said he is still my saver bet.
The New One – For me one of the most exciting horses for at least a decade, Speed,Stamina Travels great, Jumps great with a blistering turn of foot and goes on any ground. This horse has everything and try as I might to find a weakness or two I just can’t. If he’s within three or four lengths at the second last then I think he'll win and win well.
There are others in the betting with potential but still with plenty to prove.
Rock On Ruby – Even though he may have needed the run at kempton he was still firmly put in his place by The New One and I can’t for the life of me see him reversing that form. He’ll be nine next year so he won’t be improving & now he’s coming up against some smart young horses who are.
Grandouet – If he does go for the Champion then I’m more than happy to put a line through him as I would not back him with an enemies cash. His jumping can be dodgy as well as being a weak finisher but the main reason for not wanting him is that there is absolutely nothing in his past form that suggests he’s good enough to win a Champion.
Jezki – Very good horse who is highly thought of and sure to win a top race or two in Ireland but at Cheltenham I’m not so sure. Seems to go best on a flatter track on soft/heavy ground . Only beaten twice but both of those defeats came at the festival. There’s no doubt that connections were very disappointed after the Supreme with Mrs Harrington at a loss to explain another defeat at Cheltenham only to say she thought the hill may be the problem.
There’s enough doubts for me not to be interested in backing him.
My Tent Or Yours – Another smart JP McManus horse who has looked a world beater on occasions only to look like a bridle baby on others. I was on him at 10s for the Supreme but I must admit I had a niggle in mind about him around Cheltenham and so it proved to my cost ,He held every chance but didn’t find enough.
He refuses to settle and has too many quirks for my liking.
Hurricane Fly – Will surely go down as one of the greats but I have serious doubts about his 2014 Champion chances. Last year he was outpaced then stayed on past horses that had spent all their energy by going too fast too early. I don’t believe he has the speed to cope with some of the youngsters and it would not surprise me if he didn’t make the frame. Although not a gilt edged stat lets not forget that at last years festival The New One came home five seconds faster than the Fly from the second last to the line.
Our Conor – Exciting horse who travels & jumps brilliantly, I have him as the biggest danger to The New One next year & Dessie Hughes thinks he’s a bit special and the one to beat in the Champion.
There’s the five year old stat that’s always talked about but to be honest I’d be more concerned about the change of jockey & breaking up a winning pairing, I’m reluctant to back a horse in a championship race with a novice rider on board, That being said he is still my saver bet.
The New One – For me one of the most exciting horses for at least a decade, Speed,Stamina Travels great, Jumps great with a blistering turn of foot and goes on any ground. This horse has everything and try as I might to find a weakness or two I just can’t. If he’s within three or four lengths at the second last then I think he'll win and win well.
There are others in the betting with potential but still with plenty to prove.
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Jezki got a big write up by Andy Gibson in ATR
Jezki finished off his season in scintillating fashion with a 16-length win in the Herald Champion Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. The runner up was the 142 rated Ted Veale which adds some substance to the validity of Jezki’s 161 hurdle rating.
Before that he had run to a high standard in the Supreme Hurdle at Cheltenham. Jezki would have gone much closer that day but for hitting the last hurdle. He generally jumped really well but was untidy at the second last flight and the combination of those two errors appeared to cost him at least what he was beaten by. In my opinion he should be marked up on that performance as being on a par with the winner Champagne Fever.
Previously, Jezki had beaten Champagne Fever by a length and a half in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse. He was in receipt of three pounds and he won despite jumping the least well of the main contenders. The right handed track did not play to his strengths that day as he continually lost momentum by jumping out to his left. Champagne Fever appeared to run well below form when finishing a well beaten third behind Jezki last time out at Punchestown.
Jezki is rated on the same mark as Our Conor and a pound ahead of My Tent Or Yours. Consequently, it is rather surprising to see him trading at twice the odds of those two in the ante post markets for Cheltenham. He has proven course form and could improve on better ground (Barry Geraghty has always maintained this would be the case). If the ante post markets for the Cheltenham Festival interest you at such an early stage of the season, Jezki would, in my opinion be the one that appears overpriced at his current odds of 12-1.
As did TNO - written before Sunday
The New One has won four of his six races over hurdles and has been narrowly beaten in the other two. His career best effort came when taking the Grade 1 Neptune Investment Novices’ Hurdle at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival. He quickened away from his field in impressive fashion in that contest; it is possible, however, that he did not have that much to beat as the favourite may well have been below par and his other main rival, Taquin Du Seuil was undoubtedly unsuited to the drying ground.
He followed up his win in March with a fine second place finish in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle where he was only just beaten by the Champion Hurdle fourth Zarkandar. Whether or not this turns out to be top-class form depends in part on how much improvement one believes the wearing of blinkers brought about for Zarkandar. Either way, The New One ran really well for a novice and it was not the horse’s fault that he was made favourite despite needing to improve to win.
The New One is clearly a high-class hurdler who will now be dropped in trip and be aimed at the Champion Hurdle in March. He is rated-165 which puts him ahead of most of his main rivals, at least according to the betting market. Personally, I think that mark is a little flattering at the moment as it is based on the 167 rating of Zarkandar which, in my opinion overstates that horse’s ability level somewhat.
The New One should be one of the top four or five two mile hurdlers this season and, although he still has something to prove in comparison with the likes of Jezki, My Tent Or Yours and Hurricane Fly, he has plenty of good Cheltenham form to his name and is lightly-raced enough to suggest he could still have improvement in him.
Jezki finished off his season in scintillating fashion with a 16-length win in the Herald Champion Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. The runner up was the 142 rated Ted Veale which adds some substance to the validity of Jezki’s 161 hurdle rating.
Before that he had run to a high standard in the Supreme Hurdle at Cheltenham. Jezki would have gone much closer that day but for hitting the last hurdle. He generally jumped really well but was untidy at the second last flight and the combination of those two errors appeared to cost him at least what he was beaten by. In my opinion he should be marked up on that performance as being on a par with the winner Champagne Fever.
Previously, Jezki had beaten Champagne Fever by a length and a half in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse. He was in receipt of three pounds and he won despite jumping the least well of the main contenders. The right handed track did not play to his strengths that day as he continually lost momentum by jumping out to his left. Champagne Fever appeared to run well below form when finishing a well beaten third behind Jezki last time out at Punchestown.
Jezki is rated on the same mark as Our Conor and a pound ahead of My Tent Or Yours. Consequently, it is rather surprising to see him trading at twice the odds of those two in the ante post markets for Cheltenham. He has proven course form and could improve on better ground (Barry Geraghty has always maintained this would be the case). If the ante post markets for the Cheltenham Festival interest you at such an early stage of the season, Jezki would, in my opinion be the one that appears overpriced at his current odds of 12-1.
As did TNO - written before Sunday
The New One has won four of his six races over hurdles and has been narrowly beaten in the other two. His career best effort came when taking the Grade 1 Neptune Investment Novices’ Hurdle at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival. He quickened away from his field in impressive fashion in that contest; it is possible, however, that he did not have that much to beat as the favourite may well have been below par and his other main rival, Taquin Du Seuil was undoubtedly unsuited to the drying ground.
He followed up his win in March with a fine second place finish in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle where he was only just beaten by the Champion Hurdle fourth Zarkandar. Whether or not this turns out to be top-class form depends in part on how much improvement one believes the wearing of blinkers brought about for Zarkandar. Either way, The New One ran really well for a novice and it was not the horse’s fault that he was made favourite despite needing to improve to win.
The New One is clearly a high-class hurdler who will now be dropped in trip and be aimed at the Champion Hurdle in March. He is rated-165 which puts him ahead of most of his main rivals, at least according to the betting market. Personally, I think that mark is a little flattering at the moment as it is based on the 167 rating of Zarkandar which, in my opinion overstates that horse’s ability level somewhat.
The New One should be one of the top four or five two mile hurdlers this season and, although he still has something to prove in comparison with the likes of Jezki, My Tent Or Yours and Hurricane Fly, he has plenty of good Cheltenham form to his name and is lightly-raced enough to suggest he could still have improvement in him.
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mayo
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Timeform have taken a contrary view
Our Conor has been upgraded on back of collateral form.Ruby Walsh on the main contenders:
FWIW I heard Jezki didn't run because he worked badly in week before race.
2013 Morgiana Hurdle
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2013 Hattons Grace Hurdle
Brian O'Connor
Jezki appears to have left most observers underwhelmed with his Hatton’s Grace victory but it’s surely unwise to damn with faint praise a horse who ultimately could hold a better Cheltenham chance than the more heralded of JP McManus’s Champion Hurdle contenders, My Tent Or Yours.
When Tony McCoy said after Jezki’s win at Fairyhouse that he and My Tent Or Yours are pretty much the same horse in terms of form, he was only stating fact. My Tent Or Yours was less than a couple of lengths in front of Jezki in last season’s Supreme, a race in which Jessica Harrington’s runner endured a less-than-clear passage and also flattened the last flight.
But even though My Tent Or Yours had bookmakers drooling after his Fighting Fifth win at the weekend, did he actually put up a performance in any way better than anything he achieved as a novice? And most importantly of all he again took a real hold throughout the race. That this was actually regarded as a behavioural improvement shows how rank he can race, including at Cheltenham last March where the habit was punished severely up the final hill.
In contrast Jezki settled beautifully in the Hatton’s Grace where the opposition might not have been earth-shattering but still looked as good as the Fighting Fifth with a double-Grade 1 winner Diakali getting a solo in front. At one stage it looked like he might get away but Jezki smoothly reeled him in with McCoy motionless. That he made a mess of the last was unfortunate but he did pick up again when having every excuse to chuck it in on his first start over two and a half miles.
Harrington is adamant Jezki was idling, ideally needs a fast-run two miles, and is better going left-handed. It will be fascinating to see what he does when getting those conditions. McCoy insists Hurricane Fly is the benchmark and the novices have it all to do to catch him up. But that’s the nature of being a novice. Who knows which of them progress most between now and March?
Jezki may not wind up winning a Champion Hurdle but at double the odds of My Tent Or Yours, in a match bet, we know which corner we’d rather be in.
Brian O'Connor
Jezki appears to have left most observers underwhelmed with his Hatton’s Grace victory but it’s surely unwise to damn with faint praise a horse who ultimately could hold a better Cheltenham chance than the more heralded of JP McManus’s Champion Hurdle contenders, My Tent Or Yours.
When Tony McCoy said after Jezki’s win at Fairyhouse that he and My Tent Or Yours are pretty much the same horse in terms of form, he was only stating fact. My Tent Or Yours was less than a couple of lengths in front of Jezki in last season’s Supreme, a race in which Jessica Harrington’s runner endured a less-than-clear passage and also flattened the last flight.
But even though My Tent Or Yours had bookmakers drooling after his Fighting Fifth win at the weekend, did he actually put up a performance in any way better than anything he achieved as a novice? And most importantly of all he again took a real hold throughout the race. That this was actually regarded as a behavioural improvement shows how rank he can race, including at Cheltenham last March where the habit was punished severely up the final hill.
In contrast Jezki settled beautifully in the Hatton’s Grace where the opposition might not have been earth-shattering but still looked as good as the Fighting Fifth with a double-Grade 1 winner Diakali getting a solo in front. At one stage it looked like he might get away but Jezki smoothly reeled him in with McCoy motionless. That he made a mess of the last was unfortunate but he did pick up again when having every excuse to chuck it in on his first start over two and a half miles.
Harrington is adamant Jezki was idling, ideally needs a fast-run two miles, and is better going left-handed. It will be fascinating to see what he does when getting those conditions. McCoy insists Hurricane Fly is the benchmark and the novices have it all to do to catch him up. But that’s the nature of being a novice. Who knows which of them progress most between now and March?
Jezki may not wind up winning a Champion Hurdle but at double the odds of My Tent Or Yours, in a match bet, we know which corner we’d rather be in.
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2013 Fighting Fifth Video
Lydia
Although he will be rightly keeping his options open for as long as possible, My Tent Or Yours surely currently leads Jezki in Tony McCoy's "dilemma" over which will be his Champion Hurdle ride. The Fighting Fifth winner won their Cheltenham match in last season's Supreme and made the more visually impressive comeback of the JP Mcmanus-owned pair, even if Jezki's Fairyhouse win was superior on paper. My Tent Or Yours made a couple of minor errors and was typically keenish, but won his race readily. Jezki was trying two-and-a-half miles for the first time and saw it out well, beating substantial rivals in Zaidpour and Diakali; the latter was flying the flag for Our Conor's Triumph Hurdle form. Grumeti, third in the 2012 Triumph and only sighted on the racecourse once last season, shaped encouragingly at Newcastle until lack of race-fitness told. Melodic Rendezvous appeared to lack Champion Hurdle speed - although an ill-timed error didn't help matters - and that was disappointing after the thrill of his Elite victory.
Lydia
Although he will be rightly keeping his options open for as long as possible, My Tent Or Yours surely currently leads Jezki in Tony McCoy's "dilemma" over which will be his Champion Hurdle ride. The Fighting Fifth winner won their Cheltenham match in last season's Supreme and made the more visually impressive comeback of the JP Mcmanus-owned pair, even if Jezki's Fairyhouse win was superior on paper. My Tent Or Yours made a couple of minor errors and was typically keenish, but won his race readily. Jezki was trying two-and-a-half miles for the first time and saw it out well, beating substantial rivals in Zaidpour and Diakali; the latter was flying the flag for Our Conor's Triumph Hurdle form. Grumeti, third in the 2012 Triumph and only sighted on the racecourse once last season, shaped encouragingly at Newcastle until lack of race-fitness told. Melodic Rendezvous appeared to lack Champion Hurdle speed - although an ill-timed error didn't help matters - and that was disappointing after the thrill of his Elite victory.
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| The New One | 4/1 | 7/2 | 4/1 | 7/2 | |
| My Tent or Yours | 4/1 | 4/1 | 4/1 | 4/1 | |
| Our Conor | 9/2 | 5/1 | 5/1 | 9/2 | |
| Hurricane Fly | 5/1 | 6/1 | 11/2 | 6/1 | |
| Jezki | 6/1 | 9/1 | 7/1 | 8/1 | |
| Annie Power | 10/1 | 12/1 | 12/1 | 12/1 |
Paddy Power are a standout 13/2 about Hurricane Fly.
Boylesports are a best price of 9/2 about My Tent or Yours.
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- Joined
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- Joined
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|
|
| | | |
| The New One | 3/1 | 3/1 | 3/1 | 3/1 | |
| My Tent or Yours | 4/1 | 7/2 | 7/2 | 7/2 | |
| Hurricane Fly | 3/1 | 3/1 | 3/1 | 3/1 | |
| Jezki | 6/1 | 8/1 | 7/1 | 7/1 | |
| Our Conor | 7/1 | 9/1 | 9/1 | 7/1 | |
| Annie Power | 8/1 | 10/1 | 8/1 | 10/1 |
Paddy Power are also 8/1 about Jezki.
Boylesports are also 10/1 about Annie Power.
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Lester
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A few random stats
Irish 9 winners from the last 15. Rock On Ruby, Punjabi, Binocular, Katchit, Hors La Loi and Rooster Booster since ’97 have won for the home team.
5 yr olds. Countrywide Flame 3rd Balder Sucess UR last year. Zarkandar (9/1) 5th, Brampour 7th in 2012. Mille Chief finished last in 2011. In 2010 they finished 3rd and 5th. In '09 5 yr olds finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th (all 16s and below). In '08 Katchit won, Punjabi was 3rd, the only two in the field. Between ‘02 and ‘07, 14 of that age group ran and 2 were placed (‘07 Afsoun, ‘02 Bilboa). Only 2 of the 14 were returned below 14s and neither were placed (Detroit City 6/4 fav and Essex 9s). Before Katchit, only Persian War, Night Nurse and See You Then won as 5 yr olds. To summarise, all 73 five yr olds since '85 were beaten, until 2008. Since then 6 of the 17 to try have been placed.
Only 4 winners older than 8 since 1951.
Irish 9 winners from the last 15. Rock On Ruby, Punjabi, Binocular, Katchit, Hors La Loi and Rooster Booster since ’97 have won for the home team.
5 yr olds. Countrywide Flame 3rd Balder Sucess UR last year. Zarkandar (9/1) 5th, Brampour 7th in 2012. Mille Chief finished last in 2011. In 2010 they finished 3rd and 5th. In '09 5 yr olds finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th (all 16s and below). In '08 Katchit won, Punjabi was 3rd, the only two in the field. Between ‘02 and ‘07, 14 of that age group ran and 2 were placed (‘07 Afsoun, ‘02 Bilboa). Only 2 of the 14 were returned below 14s and neither were placed (Detroit City 6/4 fav and Essex 9s). Before Katchit, only Persian War, Night Nurse and See You Then won as 5 yr olds. To summarise, all 73 five yr olds since '85 were beaten, until 2008. Since then 6 of the 17 to try have been placed.
Only 4 winners older than 8 since 1951.
Statto
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9/10 ran within 51 days
9/10 age between 6 and 9
8/10 between 10 and 20 runs over hurdles
8/10 RPR 166+
8/10 within 8lb of top rared RPR
7/10 won a grade 1 hurdle or grade 3 handicap hurdle
7/10 won LTO
5/10 previous festival win
In 2012 Rock on Ruby only 4th winner in 30 years not to run during year. the new one is going straight to festival according to last reports.
Sea Pigeon last horse aged 10 or more to win ( 1980/81).
9/10 age between 6 and 9
8/10 between 10 and 20 runs over hurdles
8/10 RPR 166+
8/10 within 8lb of top rared RPR
7/10 won a grade 1 hurdle or grade 3 handicap hurdle
7/10 won LTO
5/10 previous festival win
In 2012 Rock on Ruby only 4th winner in 30 years not to run during year. the new one is going straight to festival according to last reports.
Sea Pigeon last horse aged 10 or more to win ( 1980/81).