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1000 Guineas 2021

Madmoose said:
Surely Shale and Mother Earth are overpriced at 16/1 & 25/1, Shale on better ground a huge player surely?

i see the Shale chat on page 1 so could be one for the forum
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Yep all over Shale. The price difference between her and Pretty Gorgeous given good ground is likely is literally ridiculous. When DOB confirms Shale goes here 16's will halve, and maybe go 5 or 6.
 
Trends from the racing post from last 10 renewals

1) 10/10 ran 3 or more times as a juvenile
2) 10/10 European sire
3) 10/10 top 2 finish in a group or listed race
4) 10/10 won over 7f at 2
5) 9/10 achieved an adjusted RPR of 98
6) 8/10 winning for first time over a mile
7) 8/10 adjusted RPR of 119

Price wise put up Alcohol Free and Zaajirah

Indigo Girl goes straight to the race according to Gosden and Donnacha said Shale hasnt grown much over the winter
 
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Leopardstown 1000 guineas trial on Sunday

Pretty Gorgeous
Shale
Mother Earth
Joan of Arc all entered

Hopefully its decent ground and a few of them turn up
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Leopardstown 1000 guineas trial on Sunday

Pretty Gorgeous
Shale
Mother Earth
Joan of Arc all entered

Hopefully its decent ground and a few of them turn up
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AOB does like to run his 1000Gns fillies in a trial if he can, looks like his sons are following suit too.

On the other hand AOB tends not to run his 2000Gns colts in a trial, and it looks like he has largely ignored the 2000 Trial on Sunday.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
AOB does like to run his 1000Gns fillies in a trial if he can, looks like his sons are following suit too.

On the other hand AOB tends not to run his 2000Gns colts in a trial, and it looks like he has largely ignored the 2000 Trial on Sunday.
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With good to firm forecast be interesting to see how they price this.

Hopefully Shale wins and DOB declares this the target
 
Shale declared and ryan moore jocked up

She will have to give weight to princess Josephine and joan of arc

A full sister to minding and full sister to gleneagles
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Shale declared and ryan moore jocked up

She will have to give weight to princess Josephine and joan of arc

A full sister to minding and full sister to gleneagles
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Thanks FF. I’m on for the Guineas so I’ve been looking forward to this run. Shale will have her ground - I would hope that she has enough to give these some weight and a beating. Good to have Moore on board. Fingers crossed for a good run!
 
Sky have added Shale to win tomorrow and the 1000 Guineas at 25/1.
 
Given the big drift on her i wouldn't be backing it anyway personally

She must only be half fit looking at the exchange prices
 
According to donnacha she is only just ready to start so whatever she does today expect a big step forward next time
 
Well the SP said it all

13lbs clear on ratings so should be odds on but goes off 7/2 and looked very fresh down at the start

she looked like she did in the moyglare too over 7f that she needed a step up to a mile as she was flat to the boards from half way
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Well the SP said it all

13lbs clear on ratings so should be odds on but goes off 7/2 and looked very fresh down at the start

she looked like she did in the moyglare too over 7f that she needed a step up to a mile as she was flat to the boards from half way
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Yep the debut reflected what was said in the market. I thought it was fine providing she comes on.
 
charlie said:
Yep the debut reflected what was said in the market. I thought it was fine providing she comes on.
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You could see why Santa Barbara has shortened, after watching AOB’s three runners in the 1000 Guineas Trial.

Reports were that she was working all over everything, and his all finishing in the heap for the places (and beyond) there, shows that his three probably aren’t much better than 100 ratings at present.

Santa Barbara is mostly 2/1 now, after todays race.

We have Newmarket and Newbury Trials this week, and then that’s about it, before the Newmarket classics in three weeks time.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
You could see why Santa Barbara has shortened, after watching AOB’s three runners in the 1000 Guineas Trial.

Reports were that she was working all over everything, and his all finishing in the heap for the places (and beyond) there, shows that his three probably aren’t much better than 100 ratings at present.

Santa Barbara is mostly 2/1 now, after todays race.

We have Newmarket and Newbury Trials this week, and then that’s about it, before the Newmarket classics in three weeks time.
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She may well be but 2/1 is comically short as it stands IMO.
 
charlie said:
She may well be but 2/1 is comically short as it stands IMO.
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Every time I think that’s the case, then I want to benefit from my belief that the price is short.

My next thought is always that there must be a lot of value outside of the favourite, then, and it starts my investigation of the market. :eagerness:
 
Apparently the last 7 winners of the 1000 Guineas that had a prep race were all beaten on their 3 year old debut.

So all is not lost for shale

And with the othe cocoolmore fillies finishing behind her, even joan of arc who had race fitness surely she will head to newmarket.

she also looked like a step up to a mile is very much needed

As it stands I'm still happy with my position having indigo girl and shale on side
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Every time I think that’s the case, then I want to benefit from my belief that the price is short.

My next thought is always that there must be a lot of value outside of the favourite, then, and it starts my investigation of the market. :eagerness:
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Yeh exactly. Theres more to be made finding something to place and backing SB @ 2/1
 
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