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1000 Guineas 2021

FinalFurlong91

FinalFurlong91

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1000 guineas
Indigo Girl 12/1
The Oaks
Indigo Girl 16/1

To me the fillies mile looks the race to concentrate on here and Indigo Girl looked the horse to take out of it. Missed the break and was a bit green when coming out of the dip before getting the hang of things and running on. She just wasn’t as professional as the winner and must have greater scope for improvement.

With her breeding and trainer youd think she might be more of an Oaks filly but will back her for both anyway as think she is a very good prospect.
 
Added shale at 18s for the guineas and 28s for the oaks (boosted prices)

Has an almost identical profile to hermosa and love.

The hope would be as a galileo filly she will improve quite a bit from 2 to 3.

she already has a very high level of form as the moyglare winner so any improvement puts her right at the level needed to win this.

She is a top of the ground filly so any soft in the going description on the day likely rules her out.
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Added shale at 18s for the guineas and 28s for the oaks (boosted prices)

Has an almost identical profile to hermosa and love.

The hope would be as a galileo filly she will improve quite a bit from 2 to 3.

she already has a very high level of form as the moyglare winner so any improvement puts her right at the level needed to win this.

She is a top of the ground filly so any soft in the going description on the day likely rules her out.
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I’ve just added Shale too @ 16/1. She has a very similar profile to Love and she’s got a low action and clearly relishes faster going. We know she loves good ground and it’s no coincidence when she races the 6/1 fav Pretty Gorgeous on soft ground she loses, and when it’s good ground she wins. The ground will almost certainly be good come May, and her form to date is pretty much identical to Love. Love won and then got beaten in the same exact races before winning the 1000 Guineas, so Shale is being campaigned in the same way. That race at the Curragh sorts Coolmoore order and it’s produced Minding, Magical and Love in recent years. Shale could well be another - I’ll take 16’s all day to find out.
 
Santa Barbara into favourite now based off Aidan's stable tour with Kevin Blake.
 
“She’s done unbelievably well in physical terms over the winter. She looks like a five-year-old colt. She goes through her work unbelievably well. She shows loads of speed and always worked with an awful lot of class. Whether we start her in the Guineas trial at Leopardstown or goes straight to the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, we haven’t decided yet. We won’t over-race her, we’ll keep her runs to a minimum if we can, but she shows an unbelievable amount of class at home. In terms of her stamina, she’s by Camelot, so that will give her a chance to stay a mile-and-a-quarter or maybe further, but she does show a lot of pace. She looked very pacey on her debut and she does that at home all the time. She just toys with horses in her work. We’re very excited by her."

Jeez can see why

no mention of group 1 winner shale at all not a great sign
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
“She’s done unbelievably well in physical terms over the winter. She looks like a five-year-old colt. She goes through her work unbelievably well. She shows loads of speed and always worked with an awful lot of class. Whether we start her in the Guineas trial at Leopardstown or goes straight to the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, we haven’t decided yet. We won’t over-race her, we’ll keep her runs to a minimum if we can, but she shows an unbelievable amount of class at home. In terms of her stamina, she’s by Camelot, so that will give her a chance to stay a mile-and-a-quarter or maybe further, but she does show a lot of pace. She looked very pacey on her debut and she does that at home all the time. She just toys with horses in her work. We’re very excited by her."

Jeez can see why

no mention of group 1 winner shale at all not a great sign
Click to expand...

Shale is with Donnacha O'brien and Pretty Gorgeous with Joseph O'brien. They are going to be running Ireland lol
 
HoldenTheReins said:
Shale is with Donnacha O'brien and Pretty Gorgeous with Joseph O'brien. They are going to be running Ireland lol
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You are right i need my eyes tested

Saw Aidan Obrein on her racing post page

Failed to notice that it said Donnacha Aidan Obrein haha
 
Christ, that's some move for Santa Barbara! Was 8/1 this morning in places and is now as short as 10/3. Must have been some stable tour
 
charlie said:
Christ, that's some move for Santa Barbara! Was 8/1 this morning in places and is now as short as 10/3. Must have been some stable tour
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“She’s done unbelievably well in physical terms over the winter. She looks like a five-year-old colt. She goes through her work unbelievably well. She shows loads of speed and always worked with an awful lot of class. Whether we start her in the Guineas trial at Leopardstown or go straight to the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, we haven’t decided yet. We won’t over-race her, we’ll keep her runs to a minimum if we can, but she shows an unbelievable amount of class at home. In terms of her stamina, she’s by Camelot, so that will give her a chance to stay a mile-and-a-quarter or maybe further, but she does show a lot of pace. She looked very pacey on her debut and she does that at home all the time. She just toys with horses in her work. We’re very excited by her"
 
Stable tour comments regarding Pretty Gorgeous:

'We are very pleased with her. She came through the winter really well and looks fantastic. We haven’t decided yet whether we will run her in a Guineas trial or go straight to the Guineas. We saw last year that she handles soft ground well, but I think she’ll prove quite versatile on that front. The experience that she got at Newmarket in the Fillies Mile can do her no harm with a view to going back there for the 1000 Guineas. I could see her getting a mile-and-a-quarter in due course for sure.'

Happy with the 50/1 I've got on her but the concern is the form on good ground with Shale where she finished 2nd twice.

Based on that I've covered Shale at 16/1 as I'm surprised she is that price.

Santa Barbara price is just way too short after only one run.
 
Donnachaon Shale:

'She was a brilliant filly for us last year and has wintered really well. She’s coming through all her work very nicely and her weight is right where I want it to be. All the signs are good. I know she probably looked a bit small compared to Pretty Gorgeous last season, but most fillies would look a bit small stood in against Pretty Gorgeous! Her mother Homecoming Queen was a small filly and that didn’t stop her winning the 1000 Guineas. Shale is a bit bigger than she was. We are thinking about starting her back in the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial, but she’ll just be ready to start back there and the hope would be for that to put her spot on for either the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket or the Irish 1,000 Guineas. I think she’ll have a good chance of staying a mile-and-a-quarter. While she has won on testing ground, she moves like a good-ground filly and I think decent ground will be ideal for her.'
 
HoldenTheReins said:
Donnachaon Shale:

'She was a brilliant filly for us last year and has wintered really well. She’s coming through all her work very nicely and her weight is right where I want it to be. All the signs are good. I know she probably looked a bit small compared to Pretty Gorgeous last season, but most fillies would look a bit small stood in against Pretty Gorgeous! Her mother Homecoming Queen was a small filly and that didn’t stop her winning the 1000 Guineas. Shale is a bit bigger than she was. We are thinking about starting her back in the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial, but she’ll just be ready to start back there and the hope would be for that to put her spot on for either the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket or the Irish 1,000 Guineas. I think she’ll have a good chance of staying a mile-and-a-quarter. While she has won on testing ground, she moves like a good-ground filly and I think decent ground will be ideal for her.'
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I'll be gutted if Shale doesn't have a crack at the 1000 Guineas. I doubt sentiment features in their decision making process but her mums absolute demolition job in this will hopefully sway them - she can repeat the feat! I love her.
 
Santa Barbara is an absolutely atrocious favourite @ 7/4 isn't she? She was pushed out to win her maiden from a bunch of horses that haven't won since. What have I missed?She was massively talked up in AOB's stable tour which has led to a complete price collapse. Perhaps she's working the house down. Either way, I'm not buying it, not one single bit. Who the fuck is taking 7/4 about her now?

Even a cursory glance through the history books will tell you AOB has major previous winning this race outside his first string. Hermosa @ 14/1, Winter @ 9/1, Homecomeing Queen @ 25/1. You'd make more money over 10 years blind backing AOB 2nd and 3rd string off level stakes than falling for horses like Santa Barbara.

Perhaps I'll eat my words but I think Shale will be this seasons Love and I've backed her in this and the oaks. Love her
 
One of the worst ante post prices iv ever seen

Aidan said she's a huge filly

Well on an undulating track after only one run will she get unbalanced?

will she be streetwise enough to handle a guineas?

Will she replicate her work on the gallops in a race?

Far too many questions that need answering
 
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FinalFurlong91 said:
One of the worst ante post prices iv ever seen

Aidan said she's a huge filly

Well on an undulating track after only one run will she get unbalanced?

will she be streetwise enough to handle a guineas?

Will she replicate her work on the gallops in a race?

Far too many questions that need answering
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One average race and into favourite for the 1000 guineas, mental
 
Another question for her to answer is her head carriage

it was very very high in her maiden which makes you wonder what she will find for pressure
 
Surely Shale and Mother Earth are overpriced at 16/1 & 25/1, Shale on better ground a huge player surely?

i see the Shale chat on page 1 so could be one for the forum
 
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