When there's money to be made in markets people will find a way. These moves over the last few days stink of groups looking to create arbitrage opportunities in illiquid markets. All it takes is a bit of misleading news to create FUD, and the average guy will act purely on emotion. Be that fear and closing favorable bets or greed trying to bet something they now think is going elsewhere.
I trade commodities in the futures markets for a living and I see these types of things daily on a much bigger scale. It's amusing because the amount of effort these people are going to for small gains, you'd think they'd ply their trade in much deeper markets where the opportunities dwarf stealing a few quid trading horses. It's actually quite baffling.
I just cant fully trust any of these market moves because despite the odds shortening, it just doesnt resemble people who are truly in the know betting on something they know is happening.
We saw what truly "in the know" market moves look like the other morning when constitution hill starting drifting like a barge to 5 times his original price and you could have any amount on him that you liked. And even in cases like that one it can still turn out to be wrong occasionally even when the move is so drastic.
But these jp mcmanus ones just dont add up. I first heard of fact to file movement for the ryanair a few days ago when a few hundred quid was placed on him one morning. I initially didnt think much of it, then thought I might as well back just to cover myself in case its true. I leisurely strolled on the exchange a few hours after the initial movement and put a couple hundred quid on at about 3.5. My question would be if that first bet that someone put on him that morning was ITK money, then why didnt they just clear out everything from his original price (around 4 or 5 I think) right down to 2? Why sporadically place a couple hundred at 5, then come on again later and have another bet at 3, then a couple days later have another big bet at 2.5. It doesnt make sense, if people truly knew they would've just cleared up all the bigger prices when they were available. They wouldn't be sending out a signal for others to see with one decent bet and then allowing people like me to stroll on and take 3.5, before they come on again a day later and take lower prices.
Similar with mighty park. A guy was apparently told by one of jp's people at a preview on Wednesday night I think that mighty park was going supreme. Which means jp's people have known since at least early this week that he goes supreme, and probably longer than that if true. So why not smash him in the market before yesterday and take everything available that was a lot bigger than his starting price would be? And then just lay off once news became public. Why would they once again be only placing a sporadic bet here and there and allowing regular punters to take big prices when they notice the movement? Why arent they snapping up the 9 available for the supreme right now on betfair if they know for definite, given he'd be half that if confirmed probably.
The moves may end up correct, but at the minute they just dont signal people acting on inside info that they know to be 100% true and acting on it. If anyone reading this was one of "jp's people" and you knew might park and fact to file were going supreme and ryanair, why would you not be backing mighty Parks prices in the supreme right now? And why would you not have been snapping up all the fact to file prices at 3-4 when you could? Instead of allowing people like me to take them.
and the price was gone post race), so easy for me to sit back and not have to worry.
