2026 Novice Chasers

[Quevega]

Excellent stuff prestbury.
We’ve been here before.
It’s almost like they’re selling something
There will always be followers.

 

[Eggs]

…PP;

Final Demand BANC/GC 16-1
KDB Ark/CC 20-1
Lulamba Ark/CC 33-1

 

[darlojim]

Excellent stuff prestbury.
We’ve been here before.
It’s almost like they’re selling something
There will always be followers.

Yepp exactly why I don't bother to follow the RPR nonsense. They often get upgraded/reduced so whats the point in taking the figures into account at all. It's just one persons opinion.

 

[Quevega]

Yep to follow on.

There is nothing wrong with retrospective changes to ratings as this is normal and rational, especially as form starts to stack up and reveal itself more.

But what would be irrational IMO is not understanding or appreciating that sometimes the retrospective changes made are for "other reasons".

There is no doubt in my mind that if you have the power to make yourself or something you've done look better than before, and its in your interests to do so, then you probably will.

Some people even do it to themselves. And that's proper fucked up.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

The prices are a joke (KDB and FD), but its hard not to stick these two in a double! Seriously impressive debuts.

 

[HoldenTheReins]

The prices are a joke (KDB and FD), but its hard not to stick these two in a double! Seriously impressive debuts.

you just know one won't make it, sods law isn't it

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Short priced double in November?
Not on your nelly!!

 

[darlojim]

Something potentially of note

No Mundi in the morgiana

Anz/irancy/kargese and lossie all in

Maybe thats indication Mundi will be chasing

 

[Wayward Lad]

You have to be very careful looking at RPRs after the event as the RP do a lot of retrospective adjustments, sometimes by quite big margins. For example going into the Festival last year the RPR for Kopek Des Bordes' two hurdle runs were 132 for his debut and 153 for his DRF win. Take a look now and they are 140 and 157 respectively. Similarly with Final Demand whose debut run was increased from 128 to 140 in light of subsequent events.

For another example, if you look at the Turners then you can see that every winner in the last 8 years had achieved an RPR of at least 137 in its first two hurdle runs. However, The New Lion's first two runs were only rated 131 and 135 going into this year's race. After the race they had magically been upgraded to 132 and 137 respectively.

Do we know if Sax’s trend analysis is based upon ‘Initial’ or ‘adjusted’ RPR’s ?…..as his excellent historical analysis does provide one key part for me in deciding upon the winner of each festival G1

If it’s ’Initial’ then I need to be writing down the initial figure straight away before thems RP people start altering them!

 

[Wayward Lad]

Yepp exactly why I don't bother to follow the RPR nonsense. They often get upgraded/reduced so whats the point in taking the figures into account at all. It's just one persons opinion.

I thought it was more than one person who decided upon each RPR?

I think it was somewhere on this Forum where I read that it was two or three people that decide the rating or is that only when they adjust them!!

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Do we know if Sax’s trend analysis is based upon ‘Initial’ or ‘adjusted’ RPR’s ?…..as his excellent historical analysis does provide one key part for me in deciding upon the winner of each festival G1

If it’s ’Initial’ then I need to be writing down the initial figure straight away before thems RP people start altering them!

The historical stuff has to include any adjustments, I'm fairly sure the good people at the bible don't adjust ratings given in previous seasons.
There is a small chance the same season figures may, at some point, contain a figure that gets changed but I'm fairly sure @Saxon Warrior monitors this and amends in here...

 

[darlojim]

I thought it was more than one person who decided upon each RPR?

I think it was somewhere on this Forum where I read that it was two or three people that decide the rating or is that only when they adjust them!!

1 person or a couple of plonkers in a room together nutting heads

Same thing

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Jade De Grugy entered over fences at Cork this weekend.

 

[darlojim]

James' Gate with an entry in a 2m3 beginners chase

Obviously had his issues, but wonder if he could be a dark horse for the staying division

Had some nice form over hurdles beating some good yardsticks


Kaid d'authie , Shuffle the deck and Kitzbuhel also entered in that.

Kitzbuhel expecting big improvement chasing too

 

[Wayward Lad]

Jade De Grugy entered over fences at Cork this weekend.

Over a trip as well…..2m 5f

Mares Chase winner if she takes to fences IMO

The plan was chasing last year until it wasnt

Lots of blue around the Mares Chase ….8/1 still best price

If she jumps well at the weekend and wins, then her price at least halves

Also makes Wodhooh even more appealing now for the Mares Hurdle…….

 

[Wayward Lad]

Over a trip as well…..2m 5f

Mares Chase winner if she takes to fences IMO

The plan was chasing last year until it wasnt

Lots of blue around the Mares Chase ….8/1 still best price

If she jumps well at the weekend and wins, then her price at least halves

Also makes Wodhooh even more appealing now for the Mares Hurdle…….

Also shows us that Kenny Alexander isn’t afraid to put one of his Mares over fences (as some on the Forum had questioned)

Just need Kargese to now be entered for a 2m chase …..

 

[Kautostar]

Also shows us that Kenny Alexander isn’t afraid to put one of his Mares over fences (as some on the Forum had questioned)

Just need Kargese to now be entered for a 2m chase …..

Assuming kargese will stay hurdling now then. It was 1 or the other for chasing not both the last I heard

 

[Quevega]

Kargese cash out gone with 365

 

[EnvoiAlien]

You getting into 365, Q ?
Cloudfare been messing up everywhere today.

 

[Wayward Lad]

Assuming kargese will stay hurdling now then. It was 1 or the other for chasing not both the last I heard

Agree

But it wouldnt be the first time we have been put away would it…….

Surely he sees how she jumps a fence before deciding?

I am probably wrong and she stays hurdling, but you pays your money and takes your chance