National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2019

[Quevega]

Flawless Escape could be interesting for this race, Gordon mentioned it on betfair five to follow and it's definitely going chasing over a trip.
It'll be interesting to see how it's campaigned to be fair, as the 2m 4f novice handicap is a possibility if they keep the mark down.
I think if it stays on a low enough rating, anything between 138 - 147 then any of the 2m 4f plus handicaps it's eligible for would also be of interest.

 

[Kevloaf]

Apologies Kev, I'm pretty sure it was you that advised me previously about the RSA risk of backing KS for this, that's all.

I do appreciate your other points regarding the RSA too, I just feel personally that finishing a remote 3rd in a RSA (would have been 4th had Al Boum Photo not fallen), is no better than finishing an unlucky 2nd in the NH Chase because of a jockey issue. Obviously money might be the factor, but it's £15k less (to the winner) to go for the easier option, can't imagine the place money varies as much as the winners money either.

Oh yes I definitely know I said it, I didn't want to repeat myself that's all :highly_amused:

I still think prestige of a race means more to Tizzard, and 3rd counts as placing in the RSA, which for some will be better or equal to 2nd (placing) in a 4 miler... but a Mullins or Elliott horse are probably the ones to focus on anyway at this stage.... anything not trained by them would still probably be value on the day

 

[Leman14]

From the Gordon Elliott Stable Tour:
"He’s in good form. Arguably his best form is on better ground. He’ll start off over fences sooner rather than later and he might end up being one for the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival."

 

[ComplyOrDie]

From the Gordon Elliott Stable Tour:
"He’s in good form. Arguably his best form is on better ground. He’ll start off over fences sooner rather than later and he might end up being one for the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival."

He was one of the last ones of the Gigginstown novice chasers I'd have had down for this race. Thought he'd be more suited to the JLT!

 

[doctorwu]

Great thread Jono. I was long EE at some nice prices due to your comments. Sadly the race fell apart, although I recouped a bit of ew on EE in the RSA. I like the 20/1 any race Bacardys as an early starter. Great shout.

 

[Istabraq]

In a brutal race like this with 24 permanent obstacles, and several moving ones in the form of amateur pilots, this is a brutal race and I’m not sure I’d want a horse onside with so many ‘Fs’ against his name...

 

[doctorwu]

I know you noted his age earlier in the thread and I think that is good enough reason to not back him tbh. I had already backed Ballyward before looking at the age side of it just because he struck me as needing this sort of race, however I am regretting this now, he will be 7 but not the usual Mullins age of runner for a race like this.

Think I'll stick to the ages of 7 and up for this one.

Early thoughts from myself:

Kilbricken Storm, though as has been pointed out by a few could well go RSA route, Tizzard has a lot of novice chasers this season though so still hopeful of him having a crack at this. Trip shouldn't cause issues being by Oscar and damsire being Supreme Leader.

Cracking Smart, would have preferred a more solid profile for this one for a race of this nature, but not out of it. Breeding would suggest trip could be a stretch.

Blow By Blow, will he get 4 miles? Not convinced on what we've seen so far, however breeding on dams side would suggest so. Course form a positive too.

Bacardys, again, unconvinced he'll get home over 4 miles on what we have seen, though looks like his jumping needs 4 miles to get it right. Struggle to be positive about this one at the moment.

OK Corral, this one I really like. Age, Breeding, races to date, owner/trainer, not many negatives on this one for me, 33/1 seems a steal right now. Be surprised if they go RSA, given trainers already high profile potential challengers, Santini, On The Blind Side (though shouldn't be a 3 mile horse IMO), despite being by differing owners. Jockey booking will also likely be strong, given connections.

COD,
I'd be very cautious backing any Hendo horse with his record in the race.

 

[Leman14]

I made a point of covering the Gigg staying novice chasers in the any race market - early doors.
I've just looked that the William Hill prices and I have 5 of the 6 horses covered!! = (All with Free Bets!)

Bacardys for this (Thanks to Jono)
Blow By Blow, Champagne Classic, Delta Work and Kilbricken Storm - Any Race

Granted, probably only one of the Gigg horses will run in this (and other horses will come to the fore during the season), but for now - I'm very happy with my position

 

[doctorwu]

Any other horses floating your Boat for this Race Jono ?, Haven't given it too much thought , my only bet so far
with Delta Work .@ 25-1.

BigChaang,
I Was really taken with how DW finished his race the other day. His battling qualities are well noted. Its a horse that I'll put on my list for this race.
some big stats that always hold up in this race. OR, age, 3 mile chase winner, trainers.

 

[jonthehammer]

Is Rathvinden going for the National or will he appear here again?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Is Rathvinden going for the National or will he appear here again?

It's a race for novices Jon so he won't be coming for this. He'll target one of the end of season nationals I'd imagine - hopefully the English one.

 

[mayo]

It's a race for novices Jon so he won't be coming for this. He'll target one of the end of season nationals I'd imagine - hopefully the English one.

Mullins also has Aintree in mind for Rathvinden, winner of the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham.

He said: "He was very good in Cheltenham. He would look to me to be a Grand National horse as well, whether it's the Irish or English. He will run in handicap chases on the way to one of the Nationals."

 

[mayo]

I like to find a McManus horse for this as they will probably end up with either DOC or Codd. Tower Bridge looks the most likely although Henderson didnt rule out Ok Corral going this way on his blog.

 

[jonthehammer]

It's a race for novices Jon so he won't be coming for this. He'll target one of the end of season nationals I'd imagine - hopefully the English one.

Doh of course, sorry it was late and I wasn't thinking haha. Yeah I would think English National as well

 

[bobbyvalentino]

This is actually one of my favourite races at the festival and i've been lucky enough to have 4 of the last 6 winners in the race (which is probably why I like it! )

I bought up Bacardys in the Stayers thread so thought best to move it into a new thread before continuing on:

Bacardys 33/1



So not much else to note. He would obviously have to improve on his jumping but it is one of the few festival races where you can get by without being the most natural or fluent jumper of a fence. The slow pace means jockeys can ease horses into the race, a rare luxury in most festival races. Minella Rocco won despite having some major jumping flaws, Tiger Roll clattered many fences when he won and you only have to look at the race run by Pylonthepressure last year to emphasise this point!

It's also slightly interesting that he fell on his PtP debut and Hurdles debut and in both spheres he went onto improve considerably so perhaps his slow start to chasing will follow the same path...

cpfcpatriot makes a good point:



I had him at 10/1 any race before his debut last season and seem to recall he was no bigger than 16/1 for the RSA. It's hard to look back and not find him in any of the preview books or horses to follow lists for 17/18 such was the expectation for him going over fences and stepping up in trip.

A couple of quotes from Mullins, pre-festival:



I'm certain they'll give fences another go and that it'll be 3 miles at a minimum for the horse come the Spring. He may improve enough so the RSA is still the target (sadly not in the any race market at the moment) but for now, i'd be confident this race is far more likely and Patrick Mullins maybe having his eye on retaining the race with him.


1pt EW added

In whats surely a sighter with the NH Chase in mind, Bacardys runs in the beginners chase at Naas tomorrow. Patrick jocked up. 0.0



that or Ruby doesn't won't another broken rib

 

[jono]

In whats surely a sighter with the NH Chase in mind, Bacardys runs in the beginners chase at Navan tomorrow. Patrick jocked up. 0.0



that or Ruby doesn't won't another broken rib

Townend takes the ride tomorrow doesn't he? But yeah did make me laugh seeing Ruby bypass him! Can't really blame him!
5/4 is very skinny for what we saw over fences last season...clear round will do for me

 

[bobbyvalentino]

Townend takes the ride tomorrow doesn't he? But yeah did make me laugh seeing Ruby bypass him! Can't really blame him!
5/4 is very skinny for what we saw over fences last season...clear round will do for me

You're right, not sure what the website I was looking at was drinking!

I like your 4 miler shout, think the pace of the race will suit better. Not sure about today

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

I’ve had Ballyward and OK Corral added to this race market at Hills; two id like onside at this stage

 

[Quevega]

missed watching Bacardy's
was it a schooling session ?
anyone see whole race ?

 

[Kevloaf]

missed watching Bacardy's
was it a schooling session ?
anyone see whole race ?

He got outpaced down the back and Paul didn't seem too keen to do anything about it.

Jumped alright from what I could see - will definitely need to watch it properly though with a view to this race.