Champion Hurdle 2019

[Scooby91]

This game isn't about the price at which you'd back them, it's at what you'd lay them.

I deliberately set the parameters because most of the major bookies are betting those seven to between 95% and 100%.

Good point and id probably have to change samcro to rhe ridiculous price of 2/1. And hope he wins his next race . Because at some point people will be filling the wheel barrow on him at all prices as soon as he wins something. So would be stupid to lay him at 6s. Even though i thought that was conservative and he should be atleast that price.

 

[Quevega]

Buveur D'air 2/1
Samcro 6/1
Melon 8/1
Summerville Boy 12/1
Laurina 16/1
Supasundae 20/1
WHAD 25/1

And I wouldn't back any at them prices at this stage.

You seriously wouldn't back Laurina at 16-1 ?
If there's one trainer and jockey combo who knows what they've got. then surely they would be worth trusting at 16-1, against essentially one champion, another horse from their own yard and other horses who are yet to prove themselves in open company, who are rated similarly.
When you factor horses not making it to march through injury etc then 16-1 having been confirmed hurdling and targeting the race is surely backable for any serious antepost punter. Your own personal opinion wouldn't even matter with a bet like that.
She's far too low now mind.

 

[Scooby91]

You seriously wouldn't back Laurina at 16-1 ?
If there's one trainer and jockey combo who knows what they've got. then surely they would be worth trusting at 16-1, against essentially one champion, another horse from their own yard and other horses who are yet to prove themselves in open company, who are rated similarly.
When you factor horses not making it to march through injury etc then 16-1 having been confirmed hurdling and targeting the race is surely backable for any serious antepost punter. Your own personal opinion wouldn't even matter with a bet like that.
She's far too low now mind.

I wouldn't no. (Id risk her at 20s ew with 365) She was 14/1 which I wasn't keen on a couple of weeks ago and done zero since. She literally has beat nothing. They used spoiler tactics wirh cut the mustard on Maria's benefit who diddnt finish to anywhere near her mark. Laurina hasnt beaten 1 horse who wouldn't be tailed off / pulled up in a CH literally. Now is her time to go on and prove it.

Lackeneen leader
Cap soleil
Alletrix
People get massively carried away by a horse winning with its head in its chest. Cruising to victory against poor opposition.

 

[Quevega]

I wouldn't no. (Id risk her at 20s ew with 365) She was 14/1 which I wasn't keen on a couple of weeks ago and done zero since. She literally has beat nothing. They used spoiler tactics wirh cut the mustard on Maria's benefit who diddnt finish to anywhere near her mark. Laurina hasnt beaten 1 horse who wouldn't be tailed off / pulled up in a CH literally. Now is her time to go on and prove it.

Lackeneen leader
Cap soleil
Alletrix
People get massively carried away by a horse winning with its head in its chest. Cruising to victory against poor opposition.

Surely the vast majority of novices entering their second season haven't beaten much (normally just other novices), they all have it to prove in open company.
There is enough in her formlines to justify a rating of 152 (or similar depending on who's rating system you use), and she gets a mares allowance.
Backing a novice to win an open race grade one at the festival is nearly always about potential for improvement,
And my point is even without your own eyes, trusting Mullins to improve (a mare in particular) 8-10 pounds, don't take most brains much convincing.
A different conversation in my head altogether if the trainer/jockey combo have never proved themselves consistently at this game.

Or am i crazy ?
any outcome is possible and will play out in time, but 16-1 would be value right now, no doubt in my mind.
I would also say that the odds on her improving are better than any of the other second season novices, as she has not even had to extend herself, and got a rating of 152 for jogging.
Add into that my theory that 'Mares are the future' and she ticks all the boxes.
The rise of mares being competitive at the top level in recent years since various things changed in their favor is continuing, they are being bred and raced in greater numbers because they are paying the dues.

 

[Scooby91]

"Surely the vast majority of novices entering their second season haven't beaten much (normally just other novices), they all have it to prove in open company"

They have they've ran against the best novices around

Laurina clearly hasnt

Shes not faced anything that's even half decent. No offence to connections (You have to scrap Maria's benefit straight out of that mares novice, 100% diddnt run her race)


Perfect example Apple's shakira mopped up early season looked a beast got a high rating. I then cashed out as she'd faced nothing and was going into the top tier of her age group

Charlie Parcs the same.

And hendos mare dame de compagnie she dotted up against trees was fav foe the mares novice and people were even backing her for the supreme and scratching there head when she got beat by slate house/ summerville boy.

 

[jack1092]

Theres also only 7 horses there and it's antepost.

Yep but the question posed was to 100%

And the 10's on Melon available is seemingly generous!

My price about Melon is more based on his run last March. I think it was a great run from a pretty inexperienced horse still. The race suits him being a fast pace, and i still think he will be beat once or twice this season, so no 10/1 right at this second wouldn't interest me. I think he could end up slightly bigger- but to be fair, its not the worst bet, but you have to factor in the chances he gets there.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Yep but the question posed was to 100%



My price about Melon is more based on his run last March. I think it was a great run from a pretty inexperienced horse still. The race suits him being a fast pace, and i still think he will be beat once or twice this season, so no 10/1 right at this second wouldn't interest me.

My tongue-in-cheek comment was not aimed at you personally, it was more that everyone had him shorter than his current price in the actual market. I do agree though, he will likely be beat and in turn his price will increase further.

 

[Quevega]

"Surely the vast majority of novices entering their second season haven't beaten much (normally just other novices), they all have it to prove in open company"

They have they've ran against the best novices around

Laurina clearly hasnt

Shes not faced anything that's even half decent. In context to grade 1s. (You have to scrap Maria's benefit straight out of that mares novice, 100% diddnt run her race)

although you've not addressed it as such I assume you think her rating is wrong. which is entirely your prerogative. I often question ratings myself
BUT based on everything you've seen, races watched etc throughout being a punter.

Where would you think Laurina would have placed in the supreme ?
What price do you think she would have been with ruby riding ?
what would your price have been ?
If summerville boy and Laurina were to meet next week, who would be favourite.

My answers (no cheating)
1st
She'd have been favourite
I'd have been happy with 5/2
She'd be favourite.

My answers are all based around what I've said previously,
if she turns up in the champion hurdle 2019,
she won't be 16-1
she'll have proved herself sufficiently in the trainer;s mind and have a proper chance.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Perfect example Apple's shakira mopped up early season looked a beast got a high rating. I then cashed out as she'd faced nothing and was going into the top tier of her age group

It's a 'perfect example' because it strengthens your case, however, saying the same thing about a horse like Annie Power, who went down the Mares' route during her novice season to then come out and beat the guys the following season and onwards, albeit being beat in a 'World Hurdle' (strange why you'd run her over 3m for the first time ever at the biggest festival, despite finishing 2nd but that's for another time), would suggest Laurina is open to either path.

On the other hand, Laurina's rating was 5lb higher than Annie Power's before Fairyhouse (they both ran in the same race there), for achieving what exactly? No more than Annie Power, that's for sure. I think that says more about paying too much attention to ratings that anything else though!

 

[Quevega]

"Surely the vast majority of novices entering their second season haven't beaten much (normally just other novices), they all have it to prove in open company"

They have they've ran against the best novices around

Laurina clearly hasnt

Shes not faced anything that's even half decent. No offence to connections (You have to scrap Maria's benefit straight out of that mares novice, 100% diddnt run her race)


Perfect example Apple's shakira mopped up early season looked a beast got a high rating. I then cashed out as she'd faced nothing and was going into the top tier of her age group

Charlie Parcs the same.

And hendos mare dame de compagnie she dotted up against trees was fav foe the mares novice and people were even backing her for the supreme and scratching there head when she got beat by slate house/ summerville boy.

Apples shakira is only a perfect example of you making a good decision (with hindsight)
Charli Parcs never really beat anything, he was a gallops horse.
same with dame.

Form lines are tricky at the best of times, rarely are they 100% reliable.
Laurina has snippets of lines that look very useful, including maria's benefit, which you are entitled to discount, but also through woolstone one/midnight tour/alletris/meri devie

Then thers how she looked (4 times) not just once or twice

 

[Innoko]

I personally think the way Willie talks about her is worth more than any rating.

 

[Scooby91]

although you've not addressed it as such I assume you think her rating is wrong. which is entirely your prerogative. I often question ratings myself
BUT based on everything you've seen, races watched etc throughout being a punter.

Where would you think Laurina would have placed in the supreme ?
What price do you think she would have been with ruby riding ?
what would your price have been ?
If summerville boy and Laurina were to meet next week, who would be favourite.

My answers (no cheating)
1st
She'd have been favourite
I'd have been happy with 5/2
She'd be favourite.

My answers are all based around what I've said previously,
if she turns up in the champion hurdle 2019,
she won't be 16-1
she'll have proved herself sufficiently in the trainer;s mind and have a proper chance.

She'd have been fav with ruby riding, not really a fair question as hed have been getting off the short fav in getabird

What price do I think she should have been on merit in the supreme tough one 8/1 just on style alone going in there with poor substance. Wouldn't have backed her.

Where do I thinks shed have come. Absolutely no idea as she's faced nothing that gives me the slightest clue how good she is. Alletrix would have been at the rear of the field.

Summerville boy v laurina. Laurina fav but not rightfully so just on hype. He's a confusing 1 though also, as id have to see the field. He needs a big field and strong pace.

 

[jack1092]

There's no doubt on Laurina, she has bigger steps to climb i think than even Samcro. Yes on ratings she's level, but i;d have been more confident if she had met the boys at some stage last year- just for a guide.

If Ruby + Willie do go down this route, you could be hopeful they have an idea on her...but then you could argue, the owner might want to go here regardless. Though we might get an idea if Ruby was to stay with Melon.

 

[archie]

Hattons Grace entries:
https://www.irishracing.com/card?race=Fairyhouse_Sun_2nd_Dec_2018_1_35&prc=088&prd=201812021335

 

[Folski]

I met Ruby a few years back at a preview night in Newbridge for his kids school. There was a chance for a few pics after with him & AP. I said it to him straight out, Annie Power had only really beat Zarkandar, was the form good enough as I half fancied Nichols Canyon. He said the forms not great but she is.

That being said though, if Laurina is that good, why stay hurdling with Melon? I think he was flattered by the winning distance in last years Champion myself. Granted he didn't get the easiest of passages with Faugheen but I still think BD won a little cosy.

 

[Quevega]

I met Ruby a few years back at a preview night in Newbridge for his kids school. There was a chance for a few pics after with him & AP. I said it to him straight out, Annie Power had only really beat Zarkandar, was the form good enough as I half fancied Nichols Canyon. He said the forms not great but she is.

That being said though, if Laurina is that good, why stay hurdling with Melon? I think he was flattered by the winning distance in last years Champion myself. Granted he didn't get the easiest of passages with Faugheen but I still think BD won a little cosy.

They've had many significant injuries in recent times I'm sure they didn't want to go for the champion hurdle just with Laurina and Saldier.

 

[Folski]

They've had many significant injuries in recent times I'm sure they didn't want to go for the champion hurdle just with Laurina and Saldier.

True and he has run plenty in it the last few years.

 

[The Beast]

I believe Laurina winning distance was enhanced by the heavy ground and few others only won at Cheltenham because of the heavy ground. Agree she looked impressive , and on all her other runs.

But one thing they all have in common is that she has only raced on soft/heavy ground.Lets see her on proper festival ground , Id be confident she wouldnt have things all her own way.

 

[Kevloaf]

Interesting debate raised by the pricing of the race, good question archie!

The debate seems to be at what PRICE does Laurina become worth the risk?

I'd definitely back her at 16/1 now - I HAVE backed her at 12/1 - That was enough at the time to persude me to have a go. (Some in free bets as target uncertain)

I think I've said this before, but if [they - Willie/Ruby] think she's good enough to win a CH, she'll be very close to favourite, and if they don't think she is, she'll run in the Mares race - I can't see her running at anything like double figure odds.

I took a risk (some risk) at 12/1 - and I'd do it again if she went any bigger. I can see why people wouldn't back at 12/1 though.


I know you won't take this the wrong way scooby so I'll say it... but I do disagree with you where there seems to be an adament aproach that if a horse isn't fancied by yourself you wouldn't back it at ANY price... Presenting Percy last year I'd have though would be enough to reconsider that approach? Not having a go at all because it takes a lot of balls to do what you do on this forum... but the hypothetical question I have for you would be, if 16/1 isn't a big enough price for you to back Laurina, what would be?

 

[Scooby91]

Interesting debate raised by the pricing of the race, good question archie!

The debate seems to be at what PRICE does Laurina become worth the risk?

I'd definitely back her at 16/1 now - I HAVE backed her at 12/1 - That was enough at the time to persude me to have a go. (Some in free bets as target uncertain)

I think I've said this before, but if [they - Willie/Ruby] think she's good enough to win a CH, she'll be very close to favourite, and if they don't think she is, she'll run in the Mares race - I can't see her running at anything like double figure odds.

I took a risk (some risk) at 12/1 - and I'd do it again if she went any bigger. I can see why people wouldn't back at 12/1 though.


I know you won't take this the wrong way scooby so I'll say it... but I do disagree with you where there seems to be an adament aproach that if a horse isn't fancied by yourself you wouldn't back it at ANY price... Presenting Percy last year I'd have though would be enough to reconsider that approach? Not having a go at all because it takes a lot of balls to do what you do on this forum... but the hypothetical question I have for you would be, if 16/1 isn't a big enough price for you to back Laurina, what would be?

N.a. it's not that same case. I think I put somehwere above @ 20/1 id take the risk but only with 365 and ew. Because I'd want to be able to get out. As I think there would be a fair chance id need to if there's a race pre chelt with most of the big guns in.