JLT Novices 2018

[Bayoffreedom]

He also woudl have been as fit as a flea. Been on the go all year, can't see where the improvement would come from .

Funny how we can look at things differently. He was kept on the go throughout 2016/17 (including flat) and probably improved 10-11 pounds over hurdles (and was best of these over hurdles) He has improved with every chase run; the shorter distance and better ground will be to his benefit and there is nothing wrong with his jumping. (Just watched his last two runs at Leopardstown to make sure I wasn't going crazy). We shall see.

 

[Viking Flagship]

Willoughby Court news a bit of a disaster for me if it also means Monalee is persuaded down the JLT route. WC and Monalee were 2 of my first 3 ante post bets and were looking like 2 of my better chances. I've just cashed out WC and placed the return all back on nrnb to the hit of about 8pts potential winnings. If Monalee starts to look like diverting here I might have to do similar there.

 

[Sirbetalot]

Willoughby Court news a bit of a disaster for me if it also means Monalee is persuaded down the JLT route. WC and Monalee were 2 of my first 3 ante post bets and were looking like 2 of my better chances. I've just cashed out WC and placed the return all back on nrnb to the hit of about 8pts potential winnings. If Monalee starts to look like diverting here I might have to do similar there.

Snap, I had WC JLT & Monalee RSA so both bets could go pear shaped in a few days..

 

[Kevloaf]

I put up Monalee 12/1 NRNB in this thread and with the unfortunate position WC is in hope a few also saw that price!

I genuinly think the race is more winnable because of how much it suits him, regardless of how much easier it actually looks too!

6/1 NRNB still available and I'm tempted to have another bet!

There would only be Finian's Oscar he doesn't have held and you can't be fearful of that. The race would be a perfect portayal of how good jumping beats bad jumping and wins races.

6/1 NRNB .... when Invitiation Only is 9/2 - how on EARTH can that be right?

 

[Quevega]

I put up Monalee 12/1 NRNB in this thread and with the unfortunate position WC is in hope a few also saw that price!

I genuinly think the race is more winnable because of how much it suits him, regardless of how much easier it actually looks too!

6/1 NRNB still available and I'm tempted to have another bet!

There would only be Finian's Oscar he doesn't have held and you can't be fearful of that. The race would be a perfect portayal of how good jumping beats bad jumping and wins races.

6/1 NRNB .... when Invitiation Only is 9/2 - how on EARTH can that be right?

backed it again today myself, as I would say 5-2 best price if they revert to this race.

 

[charlie]

Took 10’s with Hills on Monalee and a bigger bet at 6/1 NRNB with B365

 

[TC2]

hi folks, been reading the site for a couple of weeks. Just wondering whether anyone knows this is the likely plan for Tombstone? He's one of only a few gigginstown entries, and they've had plenty run well in the race. Would imagine they are waiting for a handicap mark before committing, but his price for this seems far too high for this. Were there any excuses for his run at the festival last year

 

[Kevloaf]

He’s another one that has the option of both the RSA Chase and the JLT Novices’ Chase. His owner also has Bonbon Au Miel who looks a real RSA horse, so that might be a factor in deciding where Invitation Only goes.

Bonbon Au Miel - pfft.

 

[charlie]

hi folks, been reading the site for a couple of weeks. Just wondering whether anyone knows this is the likely plan for Tombstone? He's one of only a few gigginstown entries, and they've had plenty run well in the race. Would imagine they are waiting for a handicap mark before committing, but his price for this seems far too high for this. Were there any excuses for his run at the festival last year

Still 25/1 in the to win any race market.

 

[Scooby91]

Ben Pauling reckons it is 70-30 against Willoughby Court running at the Cheltenham Festival.

Having provided the trainer with a first Festival win last March, Willoughby Court was favourite to strike again in the JLT Novices' Chase.

However, Pauling revealed on Monday that the seven-year-old had pus in a foot and time is ticking away.

"Every day that goes by is another day we are missing. It is getting very close and, in all honesty, he is not the sort of horse I am going to take there unless I am 100 per cent happy," said Pauling.

"I'm afraid pus in the foot is a very insignificant injury long term, but short term it can be quite sore and slow you down considerably. You don't want to work a horse which is favouring one leg over another otherwise they might get an injury.

"It's look scarily like we are struggling. I would say it is 70-30 against him running at the moment. I'm not going to risk a horse of that ability.

"Believe you me, having a horse that is favourite for the JLT is not something you want to give up, but at the same time you have to be realistic about it. You also have to think about the long-term future of the horse.

"I've no reason to believe he wouldn't be firing on all cylinders for Aintree and there is a two-and-a-half-mile novice there. That might be even more competitive as a lot of the two-milers are stepping up.

"You can't get too down as this is the game and I'm not the only one it has happened to."
****************,,,


You'd have to say that he's out tbh

 

[robith]

If there's now WC, I'm coming round notably to Modus now

 

[ryanh97]

Apparently WC is now 70% missing this

 

[ComplyOrDie]

With Willoughby Court more unlikely to make the festival now, Footpad taking on the Arkle & Monalee & Al Boum Photo most likely to head to the RSA, there is no way I see Finian's Oscar going off 12/1 for this race, for me he is now turning in to a proper value bet, being 3/1 just to place.

Of course there is still some trust issues with him, one being his jumping, but I am convinced plenty of schooling will have taken place since his last run, not to mention the turn around of form from for the Tizzard yard.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

With Willoughby Court more unlikely to make the festival now, Footpad taking on the Arkle & Monalee & Al Boum Photo most likely to head to the RSA, there is no way I see Finian's Oscar going off 12/1 for this race, for me he is now turning in to a proper value bet, being 3/1 just to place.

Of course there is still some trust issues with him, one being his jumping, but I am convinced plenty of schooling will have taken place since his last run, not to mention the turn around of form from for the Tizzard yard.

I was thinking the same when I went through the list of runners earlier. Terrefort, Kemboy and Finians Oscar are the three I am interested in at current prices.

 

[Kevloaf]

Would The Storyteller come here if WC gets ruled out too?


Now has to the the time for backing in this race though.... ideally with 365 where you may/should have the option to cash out if WC does make it and you no longer fancy the horse as strongly.


I did read Terrefort is very unlikely to run FM - having backed him, I remember reading it, but can't tell you where...

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Would The Storyteller come here if WC gets ruled out too?


Now has to the the time for backing in this race though.... ideally with 365 where you may/should have the option to cash out if WC does make it and you no longer fancy the horse as strongly.


I did read Terrefort is very unlikely to run FM - having backed him, I remember reading it, but can't tell you where...

Skipping Cheltenham altogether Kev? Maybe one for Aintree

 

[Quevega]

With Willoughby Court more unlikely to make the festival now, Footpad taking on the Arkle & Monalee & Al Boum Photo most likely to head to the RSA, there is no way I see Finian's Oscar going off 12/1 for this race, for me he is now turning in to a proper value bet, being 3/1 just to place.

Of course there is still some trust issues with him, one being his jumping, but I am convinced plenty of schooling will have taken place since his last run, not to mention the turn around of form from for the Tizzard yard.

I think there's a strong chance if Willoughby is confirmed NR then Monalee will revert and a small domino effect may happen, affecting the three staying novice races.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I think there's a strong chance if Willoughby is confirmed NR then Monalee will revert and a small domino effect may happen, affecting the three staying novice races.

Yeah, quite the chance this may happen too, although I can still see him landing a place amongst the field with him in there too.

 

[Kevloaf]

Skipping Cheltenham altogether Kev? Maybe one for Aintree

Yes that was one of the caveats.

I liked him each way before the run against Cyrname (backed both NRNB for this).... but neither are turning up.... both going to meet at Aintree I believe.

 

[Scooby91]

Would The Storyteller come here if WC gets ruled out too?


Now has to the the time for backing in this race though.... ideally with 365 where you may/should have the option to cash out if WC does make it and you no longer fancy the horse as strongly.


I did read Terrefort is very unlikely to run FM - having backed him, I remember reading it, but can't tell you where...

Cyrname deffinately dosent run. Terrefort runs if it's soft.


Prob Unlikely but dounikos could even still come here. He's not nailed on to go for the 4miler just yet.
He's in the same position as roi des francs and don poli.