Champion Hurdle 2019

[archie]

Fair to say that neither have been tested in novice company, Jack, so both have something to prove. Samcro has failed twice in open company so 10/1 a more realistic price.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Laurina is the worst price of any horse at the festival for me. Agree with Scooby that 20/1 would be more like it, and I'm not sure I'd be tempted to back her at those odds

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Laurina is the worst price of any horse at the festival for me. Agree with Scooby that 20/1 would be more like it, and I'm not sure I'd be tempted to back her at those odds

Cor, I'd love some 20's about Laurina. I rate her very highly, however, would I be so keen to chuck her in a Champion Hurdle straight out of mares' only races, not for me. I think she could place (based on what we have seen so far) and 20's would appeal! Best price I managed was 12's about her, which I am happy to sit on until I see her reappear and hopefully show something amongst better company than what she has been keeping!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Fair to say that neither have been tested in novice company, Jack, so both have something to prove. Samcro has failed twice in open company so 10/1 a more realistic price.

You never fail until you give up

Disappointing in open company, yes, can I make excuses for both, absolutely.

 

[Quevega]

You never fail until you give up

Disappointing in open company, yes, can I make excuses for both, absolutely.

And the definition of insanity -
Doing the same things over and over again and expecting different results.
Ask Nigel.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

And the definition of insanity -
Doing the same things over and over again and expecting different results.
Ask Nigel.

I suspect Gigginstown/Elliott will only have the one crack at the CH with Samcro, unlike TNO, so no need to worry about Nigel, he lost it a while back :highly_amused:

 

[archie]

Ok, for anyone considering prices. Let's say that you are a bookie and you are allowed to price up the top seven in the market for a 100% (approx) book. How would you price it? Mine would be:

6/4 Buveur D'Air
5/1 Melon
8/1 Samcro
8/1 Laurina
12/1 Summerville Boy
12/1 Supasundae
16/1 We Have A Dream

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Buveur D'air 2/1
Samcro 3/1
Melon 11/2
Summerville Boy 12/1
Laurina 16/1
Supasundae 16/1
WHAD 16/1

That comes in at 99%

 

[jack1092]

Pricing the race up right now on what i think they should be:

BDA: 7/4
SAMCRO: 4/1
MELON: 9/2
LAURINA: 7/1
SUPASUNDAE 12/1
SUMMERVILLE BOY 16/1
WHAD 25/1

A few comments on mine:

WHAD juvenile form for me just never gives them a good chance first year in open company.

Summerville Boy- did so well to win, but can't excuse the jumping and the fact the ground may have helped him and might not this year.

Laurina- figures give her as good a chance as other novices, but i still think those figures are slightly skewed given mares only.

Samcro- looked to be going fine at Punch. As much as i dont rate bedrock a contender for this, and i think again, figures might be skewed a little, Bedrocks 158 RPR at DR would have him 4th in last yrs CH, below par race perhaps....but Samcro was giving him fitness and 5pds. Add that in and that says a good bit.

Melon- probably wont be this price, as i suspect he doesnt run to his CH form every race due to race pace...but true chance is about this IMO.

BDA= obvious enough.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Buveur D'air 9/4
Samcro 4/1
Melon 6/1
Laurina 7/1
Summerville Boy 10/1
Supasundae 12/1
WHAD 16/1


100.22%

 

[somer1]

BDA 15/8
SAMCRO 5/1
MELON 11/2
LAURINA 12/1
SUPASUNDAE 14/1
SUMMERVILLE BOY 14/1
WE HAVE A DREAM 20/1
But im no bookie

 

[Scooby91]

Buveur D'air 2/1
Samcro 6/1
Melon 8/1
Summerville Boy 12/1
Laurina 16/1
Supasundae 20/1
WHAD 25/1

And I wouldn't back any at them prices at this stage.

 

[bobbyvalentino]

Buveur D'air 2/1
Samcro 6/1
Melon 8/1
Summerville Boy 12/1
Laurina 16/1
Supasundae 20/1
WHAD 25/1

Retweet... mine also, considering AP

 

[jack1092]

It does create an 80.91 % book though

 

[Scooby91]

It does create an 80.91 % book though

Theres also only 7 horses there and it's antepost.

 

[Innoko]

So to sum up, we should all be running down to our local corals with our wheelbarrows and unloading on the 3's. :highly_amused:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

So to sum up, we should all be running down to our local corals with our wheelbarrows and unloading on the 3's. :highly_amused:

And the 10's on Melon available is seemingly generous!

 

[archie]

This game isn't about the price at which you'd back them, it's at what you'd lay them.

I deliberately set the parameters because most of the major bookies are betting those seven to between 95% and 100%.

 

[Scooby91]

I haven't backed him. And it's a strange one as I don't usually like juveniles for this at all. But I'll be interested to see if Mr adjudicator trains on. I wouldn't want to lay him at above 25/1 for this. Currently 50s. Personally think he was the top juvenile around last season And has a nice mix of speed and stamina. They could try him up in trip.

 

[Scooby91]

So to sum up, we should all be running down to our local corals with our wheelbarrows and unloading on the 3's. :highly_amused:

That's a difficult one. As he could still be bigger at some point anf with nrnb. as people only want samcro. All depends if samcro fires. If somehow he can get an easy run in. Any win samcro has between now and chelt he will get absolutely smashed.