Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[JackieMoon33]

If Russell and Kennedy are going to be on "the majority" of Gigginstown runners, perhaps Elliott is trying to get Cooper to stay with him for a good number of rides this year. Cooper seems to be getting back on track, and he'll have plenty of winners. He's a really good jockey still, so maybe he'll bounce back this year and it'll be the start of a new chapter for him?

I’ll cling to that for now

 

[archie]

Did I watch a different race to you guys? I would be horrified if he was cut based on that debut.

What did we learn today? He can jump a fence (okay fair enough big tick but he is a Gigginstown Chaser that they'vve always said would be a chaser...)

Other than that, we saw him beat inferior horses over a trip too short in 'workmanlike' style at odds on?


Having backed him pre-race anyway, I don't feel any better or worse than I did before the race... all the points made about why he'll have a good chance in March are all valid...but they were valid before his debut.

Unless you were worried he couldn't jump, that was just an okay debut - I think he'll come on LOADS from that, and my God he will need to, to be winning a race at Cheltenham.

I can't speak for the others but jumping style is all I really care about in a beginners chase. Cheltenham races are almost always won by low, economic jumpers rather than high, careful types. The latter waste too much time in the air which over a race equates to more lengths than I like. It's why I was so against Finians Oscar this time last year. Sure, the low jumpers sometimes come a cropper (eg UDS) but that's the risk you take.
Delta Work was really efficient over his fences. Far more than, say, Blow By Blow and it will take a good one to lower his colours over 3 miles.

 

[The Beast]

I can't speak for the others but jumping style is all I really care about in a beginners chase. Cheltenham races are almost always won by low, economic jumpers rather than high, careful types. The latter waste too much time in the air which over a race equates to more lengths than I like. It's why I was so against Finians Oscar this time last year. Sure, the low jumpers sometimes come a cropper (eg UDS) but that's the risk you take.
Delta Work was really efficient over his fences. Far more than, say, Blow By Blow and it will take a good one to lower his colours over 3 miles.

fair comment archie , if you get a chance rewatch monalees race today. just watch Snow Falcon how fast , low and economical he was. Not sure if he had problems in past , certainly no cheltenham form but thats two impressive wins on the bounce now , something he rarely achieved previously.

 

[CUEMYCARD]

Coeur Sublime ... given any chance for a race at Chelt ?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Kennedy jocked up. Looks a tasty little race as a starting point, so they must think high enough of him, although a few defeats and he could end up with a nice handicap mark too!

Not without hope for this one still.

Obviously he fell, but for a first run over here I don't think he ran a bad race.

The winner won nicely, and looks a solid Albert Bartlett prospect.

I suspect Elliott and Co. will work on Elwood's rating so he can appear in either the Martin Pipe or possibly the Coral Cup as don't think he is a 3m horse myself.

 

[taylorch1990]

Douvan out for the season. First of my ante post bets dead sure it won't be the last. As for Douvan for me that should be it for him, too many injuries now just let him enjoy retirement and leave us all to wonder what might have been.

 

[Big Chac]

Now that douvan's out, what are the chances of BDD in the Ryan air and laurina to take her place in the mares hurdle?

 

[Innoko]

Always a chance I guess, but personally don't think it will happen.

 

[jonthehammer]

Another good win for Aspen Colorado today and I am keen to get him in my book as soon as he is priced up for any race. Maybe the Coral Cup and if it is a quickly run race he has every chance. Long way off obviously but one of my early thoughts on the handicaps.

 

[Kevloaf]

Now that douvan's out, what are the chances of BDD in the Ryan air and laurina to take her place in the mares hurdle?

Far too early to seriously consider how the pack may be shuffled in my opinion.

Even if that did play out, you couldn't say it was related to Douvan...

 

[Geordieboy83]

I honestly think even this far out and even with the Mullins bingo factor that Laurina will go CH and BDD will defend her Mares crown.

 

[Scooby91]

I honestly think even this far out and even with the Mullins bingo factor that Laurina will go CH and BDD will defend her Mares crown.

No doubt that is the plan, but will laurina be thrown in to the deep end before chelt and get beat sending her to the mares, or will she carry on down the easy route and then be thrown straight into the big one. literally beat nothing of any note. Nobody has a clue how she would fair in a CH. One thing I do know is her price is ridiculous.

 

[Geordieboy83]

No doubt that is the plan, but will laurina be thrown in to the deep end before chelt and get beat sending her to the mares, or will she carry on down the easy route and then be thrown straight into the big one. literally beat nothing of any note. Nobody has a clue how she would fair in a CH. One thing I do know is her price is ridiculous.

totally agree with this, the price is terrible.

 

[Kevloaf]

She's a better price than Samcro isn't she at 14/1?

OH MY GOD I've just seen her price now... I'm not going to delete my first sentence, was that a reaction to Samcro?! That's truly shocking

 

[Viking Flagship]

She was shortened into about Melon’s price about a week ago Kev, but then shortened further still after the Samcro defeat. Quite frankly both Samcro and Laurina are unbackable at current prices in my opinion.

 

[Kevloaf]

She was shortened into about Melon’s price about a week ago Kev, but then shortened further still after the Samcro defeat. Quite frankly both Samcro and Laurina are unbackable at current prices in my opinion.

I'm more shocked that I've gone a week without checking the market :very_drunk:

I do agree, however could see the case for chancing Samcro now ... if he wins the Morgiana he will half in price .... but this far out the difference between 5/1 and 5/2 aren't the way I'd play with my stake.

It is impossible to make a form case for Laurina at 6/1 ... and form does have to be the main factor this far out ... her price assumes she'll add "form" to her 'obvious' credentials that factor in hype, connections, competition etc

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I think she (Laurina) will win a Champion Hurdle, I just don't think it will be this seasons renewal.

She has plenty of potential, will be up there with Annie Power IMHO, but this coming season is not the right time.

I think Samcro will go chasing the following season, regardless of if he wins this coming seasons CH or not, and in a weak division Laurina could have it her way then. I do currently feel, and with the greatest respect to two time champ, Buveur D'air, that he will struggle to defend his crown should Samcro, Laurina & Melon all turn up! They have more room for improvement than him, and as has been stated previously on here, Melon only has a neck to find, with the other 2 very much open for any amount of improvement.

Despite my huge amount of love for her, I do agree 100% that Laurina's price is absolutely mad. She's beaten horses rated mid 130's (at best) majority of the time, albeit destroyed them, but you'd expect most of the Champion Hurdle contenders to do that any way! For all that we give Samcro a hard time for his defeat that run was still above what Laurina has achieved to date!

 

[Scooby91]

Updated*

Gold cup
Al boum photo 36.0
Monalee 50.0
Shattered love 65.0
Top notch 240.0

Supreme*
Annamix 20/1 ew 20/1

Ballymore
Blackbow 25/1 EW
Carefully selected 25/1
Tornado flyer 25/1

Arkle*
Getabird 20/1
Mengli khan 20/1*

RSA*
Santini 21/1 ( due to a double)
Next destination 10/1 (free bet)
Kilbricken storm 33/1

JLT
claimantakinforgan 33/1 25/1 EW

Stayers
Penhill 15/2

Triumph*
Adjali 33/1 EW

Mares novice*
Chante neige 12/1 13/1
Colreevy 25/1


ANY RACE

fenta des obeaux 33/1*

farid 33/1*

Allaho 20/1*

never adapt 33/1*

adjali 20/1*

Rhinestone 25/1*

Dento des obeaux 25/1*

On the blind side 16/1*

Delta Work 16/1*

Blackbow 13/1

Cilaos emery 28/1

Cracking smart 16/1

Blow by blow 18/1

Champagne classic 16/1

The worlds end 28/1

 

[bobbyvalentino]

Laurinas ante-post price for the Champion Hurdle is one of the worst I've seen yet this season.

I may be stood in my own corner here but looking at the previous two editions of the Dawn Run the winners have been overated.

Let's Dance 2017 peak OR 147, best TS 130, peak RPR 146 all posted in the Dawn Run. 8 races later now rated 143 - shown little of the expected improvement. Second now rated 140, third rated 139. She has since been racing at staying distances and clearly got away with it here, with one subsequent win under the belt.

Limini 2016 is harder to get a handle on since she was racing on the flat last season, but that could tell you something in itself. She showed some of the expected improvement however has only subsequently won once over obstacles when silencing Apples Jade in heavy ground at Punchestown (we now know Apples is not the sharpest after a break). Second now rated 139, third rated 133.

Laurina 2018 did do this with ridiculous ease, that said a few of her stronger rivals look to have cut each others throat going a strong gallop in the soft ground. The second and third haven't raced since but got ratings of 136 and 122 respectively.

Now Laurina is clearly a very good mare indeed and duly followed up with an impressive performance in Fairyhouse breaking the 150 mark. You also have to respect the vibes coming out of Closutton. Yet to be best price 6/1 for a Champion Hurdle when history shows us it has been easy to look impressive in a division as weak as the mares novices, to me is madness. She may well come out and thrash up some good geldings before Cheltenham, but she's priced as if she's already done so.

I suspect I may even look to take her on the first time she does.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Surprised to see Vision Des Flos entered over hurdles on Saturday.