Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Oli Bell was at Mullins' yesterday. My guess is that they'll air the footage on Saturday or during York but it may well give a few snippets on likely targets as things stand.

As always, it's an elimination exercise.
Past winners tend not to turn up, never mind follow up. Scratch Native River and Sizing John.
10yos don't win. Scratch Might Bite and Killultagh Vic.

Do you know if it was for ITV or RUK Archie?

 

[archie]

I heard ITV but not sure. This is what his twitter feed says:
https://twitter.com/olibellracing

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I heard ITV but not sure. This is what his twitter feed says:
https://twitter.com/olibellracing

Thanks Archie

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Istabraq, Coneygree also took his chance and took it brilliantly as a novice.

Of course billymag, short memory !
Though Coneygree was about as close as you can get to a being a 'non' novice but you are correct, he is an exception.
The point I was making is that and staying chaser rated 160 or above will head here and that novices taking their chance are rare, so from an ante post betting opportunity this race is probably the safest to invest in at this early stage....

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Oli Bell was at Mullins' yesterday. My guess is that they'll air the footage on Saturday or during York but it may well give a few snippets on likely targets as things stand.

As always, it's an elimination exercise.
Past winners tend not to turn up, never mind follow up. Scratch Native River and Sizing John.
10yos don't win. Scratch Might Bite and Killultagh Vic.

Strong trends race the Gold Cup, though one of the strongest until last season was horses having had a previous failed attempt don't go on to win the race, Native River blew that one but the principal remains that horses who weren't previously good enough to win the race are unlikely to have improved enough to win a later renewal.
I have a personal view (and happy to be shot down) that we still haven't seen the best of Might Bite and despite his age come March he is a leading contender, better ground will help massively and only having raced 16 times he's relatively lightly raced for what will be a 10yo, though another March deluge and confidence in Percy would only increase...

 

[archie]

Strong trends race the Gold Cup, though one of the strongest until last season was horses having had a previous failed attempt don't go on to win the race, Native River blew that one but the principal remains that horses who weren't previously good enough to win the race are unlikely to have improved enough to win a later renewal.
I have a personal view (and happy to be shot down) that we still haven't seen the best of Might Bite and despite his age come March he is a leading contender, better ground will help massively and only having raced 16 times he's relatively lightly raced for what will be a 10yo, though another March deluge and confidence in Percy would only increase...

I tend to look at some trends in combination and look for a reason. There is a stat that has Gold Cup winners not having had more than 10 runs over fences and another that says they should have had 2 to 5 runs that season. Native River blew both of those and I tend to the view that it was because of the very soft ground.

Horses are more likely to improve in the earlier stages of a career partly because of physical maturing and partly because practice makes perfect. It's a rare chaser that gets better after the age of 8 or 9 and in normal circumstances the first chance is likely the best one. I've a question mark against all the horses who ran in last season's edition but I'd be more forgiving the younger they are.

For me, stats are best viewed as a group and several of the key figures won't be known until February.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I tend to look at some trends in combination and look for a reason. There is a stat that has Gold Cup winners not having had more than 10 runs over fences and another that says they should have had 2 to 5 runs that season. Native River blew both of those and I tend to the view that it was because of the very soft ground.

Horses are more likely to improve in the earlier stages of a career partly because of physical maturing and partly because practice makes perfect. It's a rare chaser that gets better after the age of 8 or 9 and in normal circumstances the first chance is likely the best one. I've a question mark against all the horses who ran in last season's edition but I'd be more forgiving the younger they are.

For me, stats are best viewed as a group and several of the key figures won't be known until February.

Agree with that....

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Strong trends race the Gold Cup, though one of the strongest until last season was horses having had a previous failed attempt don't go on to win the race, Native River blew that one but the principal remains that horses who weren't previously good enough to win the race are unlikely to have improved enough to win a later renewal.
I have a personal view (and happy to be shot down) that we still haven't seen the best of Might Bite and despite his age come March he is a leading contender, better ground will help massively and only having raced 16 times he's relatively lightly raced for what will be a 10yo, though another March deluge and confidence in Percy would only increase...

I agree about Might Bite.

That run in second on ground like that made me even more impressed with him. Everything suited the winner that day but MB put up one hell of a battle.

I’d have MB as market favourite at this stage if I was the bookie.

 

[archie]

I’d have MB as market favourite at this stage if I was the bookie.

There is only a small chance that Might Bite will be an improved horse next March so you're banking on him getting ground that is claimed to be more suitable. Apart from that being far from certain, the same argument goes for younger horses like Road To Respect who, as a 7yo, is also likely to have more improvement in him.

It's too early to identify the individual horse but the stats are heavily in favour of the winner next March being one of last season's novices. For what it's worth, I just have this feeling that Presenting Percy is farther along the maturity road than some of the others and wouldn't be keen on his price either at this stage.

 

[PitLad]

I really like Presenting Percy for the Gold Cup, stays the trip (and more) but has speed for shorter, neat jumper, course/Festival form in the book and jockey suits style, all in all the one to beat in my book.

As for dangers I quite like Balko Des Flos, he was ultra impressive in the RyanAir last March on ground he didn't like, course/Fest form important. Back on decent ground, I think he's one to get amongst it and is solid value at 25/1

 

[Middle_Of_March]

I really like Presenting Percy for the Gold Cup, stays the trip (and more) but has speed for shorter, neat jumper, course/Festival form in the book and jockey suits style, all in all the one to beat in my book.

As for dangers I quite like Balko Des Flos, he was ultra impressive in the RyanAir last March on ground he didn't like, course/Fest form important. Back on decent ground, I think he's one to get amongst it and is solid value at 25/1

I had a few quid at 25s for this after he won the Ryanair as it goes.

He then dissapointed at Aintree and I expected an issue to come to light in the aftermath of that. Very strange run.


Re Might Bite Archie, I think that run in second was a fantastic run last year. The chances of getting ground that soft again is very very unlikely and, in my opinion, that run in better ground would win most Gold Cups. I wasn’t mad keen on him for the race this year (though did have a few quid on him in the end) but I came out of the race thInking that was a very good run behind a mud loving slogger with the heart to never stop running that is Native River.

I too don’t fancy the price on Percy. Clearly talented but 5/1 about a horse who’s never taken on experienced staying chasers with 7 months until the race, with a trainer who will probably give him a strange prep again, I’m happy to leave him well alone.

I expect the three I like at this stage (Might Bite, BDF each way and Monalee each way) will be the three I stick with over the course of the entire season unless something stands out. Though I really want Monalee in the Ryanair and BDF probably won’t be good enough to win this unless he keeps improving.

A very interesting race even at this stage with lots of question marks against so many.

 

[archie]

Everyone entitled to their opinion especially if they've backed it up with hard cash but....

The last 10yo to win a Gold Cup was Cool Dawn in 1998. It was at his first attempt and his death earlier this year means that no horse still alive won a Gold Cup at 10. The race is always very hard which is why winners are often unable to defend their crown and why so few horses improve after their first attempt.

Might Bite ran creditably last year but RPRs would gave it that, of the previous 12 editions, that run would only have been good enough to beat Sizing John, Lord Windermere and Synchronised. It actually comes below Djakadam's first effort behind Coneygree and that's roughly where I'd place him in the scheme of things the last ten years or so. As a 10yo I wouldn't want him at twice the price as a winner although 2/1 for a place might work.

As I said, all opinions this early and good luck to anyone who feels they have a good price.

 

[BigChaang]

I Like P.percy for the gold cup too ,and yes , it's early days , But I still can't help thinking that Native river
could be in the reckoning , I think if they keep him lightly raced this year.
Hasn't been out of the first three in his last 14 races . Just a feeling he could be
a very very Good horse ,.

 

[Kevloaf]

I had a few quid at 25s for this after he won the Ryanair as it goes.

He then dissapointed at Aintree and I expected an issue to come to light in the aftermath of that. Very strange run.


Re Might Bite Archie, I think that run in second was a fantastic run last year. The chances of getting ground that soft again is very very unlikely and, in my opinion, that run in better ground would win most Gold Cups. I wasn’t mad keen on him for the race this year (though did have a few quid on him in the end) but I came out of the race thInking that was a very good run behind a mud loving slogger with the heart to never stop running that is Native River.

I too don’t fancy the price on Percy. Clearly talented but 5/1 about a horse who’s never taken on experienced staying chasers with 7 months until the race, with a trainer who will probably give him a strange prep again, I’m happy to leave him well alone.

I expect the three I like at this stage (Might Bite, BDF each way and Monalee each way) will be the three I stick with over the course of the entire season unless something stands out. Though I really want Monalee in the Ryanair and BDF probably won’t be good enough to win this unless he keeps improving.

A very interesting race even at this stage with lots of question marks against so many.

That is the 2nd or 3rd time you've knocked the "strange prep" that Pat Kelly may give him...

Pat Kelly who gave him a "strange prep" last year and won the RSA? Or the "strange prep" before he won the Pertemps?
I genuinly think its staggering you see Pat Kelly as a negative.

AND you said he's never raced against open class staying chasers, which he did.... he was beaten behind Our Duke in his final 'prep' before winning the RSA. Albeit he didn't win, plenty thought he ran creditably that day.

Last point - This is just pedantic but, Presenting Percy is 6/1 everywhere not 5/1, Might Bite is 5/1 in some places and a standout 13/2 with Betunfair who won't take a bet for plenty of people - he's widely available at 6/1.


I have said previously I don't think Presenting Percy or Might Bite are decent bets yet this far out but I still wouldn't lay them and I would consider them in multiples... when a horse is at that price I usually think the price is just on the cautious side of fair from a bookmaker.

 

[Kevloaf]

Might Bite ran creditably last year but RPRs would gave it that, of the previous 12 editions, that run would only have been good enough to beat Sizing John, Lord Windermere and Synchronised. It actually comes below Djakadam's first effort behind Coneygree and that's roughly where I'd place him in the scheme of things the last ten years or so. As a 10yo I wouldn't want him at twice the price as a winner although 2/1 for a place might work.

I'm a little surprised Sizing John is as low as he is, I thought he was a better winner than Lord Windy and Synchronised by a decent amount! I suppose it wasn't a 'strong' renewal and I don't do my own ratings, but that is a bit surprising!

I don't think we've seen 'the best' of Might Bite which I think Ista said, however I don't think we'll ever see it at Cheltenham. He's going to be the one to beat at Kempton (alkthough I'd imagine I'd sway towards Waiting Paitently by then)...

 

[archie]

Gold Cup ratings:
174 Might Bite
171 Sizing John
182 Don Cossack
178 Coneygree
168 Lord Windermere
179 Bobs Worth
171 Synchronised
181 Long Run
182 Imperial Commander
185 Kauto Star
184 Denman

I wouldn't be that surprised if Might Bite won the King George again but it has little relevance to the Gold Cup. However, horses that go well in the KG or Lexus statistically rate a second look at Cheltenham.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

That is the 2nd or 3rd time you've knocked the "strange prep" that Pat Kelly may give him...

Pat Kelly who gave him a "strange prep" last year and won the RSA? Or the "strange prep" before he won the Pertemps?
I genuinly think its staggering you see Pat Kelly as a negative.

For what it's worth Davy Russell had some choice words when asked about Pat Kelly in our box last year, you never know how much is banter or bullshit but he did suggest a couple of times that his right hand wasn't entirely in tune with his left.
He gave the impression he was serious, but he also said that Presenting Percy was the worst handicapped horse of the 2017 festival....

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Everyone entitled to their opinion especially if they've backed it up with hard cash but....

The last 10yo to win a Gold Cup was Cool Dawn in 1998. It was at his first attempt and his death earlier this year means that no horse still alive won a Gold Cup at 10. The race is always very hard which is why winners are often unable to defend their crown and why so few horses improve after their first attempt.

Might Bite ran creditably last year but RPRs would gave it that, of the previous 12 editions, that run would only have been good enough to beat Sizing John, Lord Windermere and Synchronised. It actually comes below Djakadam's first effort behind Coneygree and that's roughly where I'd place him in the scheme of things the last ten years or so. As a 10yo I wouldn't want him at twice the price as a winner although 2/1 for a place might work.

As I said, all opinions this early and good luck to anyone who feels they have a good price.

Not forgetting that Cool Dawn only won because See more business was run out by Cyborgo, See more was the 2nd fav and won the following year.

 

[robith]

I'm all about that RSA form for the Gold Cup and with Might Bite's run this year I don't see a reason to stop now.

Love Bitey, but I think that was his chance and he sadly got the wrong ground against the wrong horse

 

[BigChaang]

Just seen on R.post site , Native River and Thistlecrack both aiming for the Gold cup ,
and Triple crown this winter./ new season.