Champion Hurdle 2019

[Middle_Of_March]

You make a very very strong case Jono.

20s is a big price. The stat about his consistency in Grade 1s is a very big positive for me.

If I had to have a bet right now, it would be one of If The Cap Fits or Summerville Boy - probably the latter. But Supasundae is now well in my considerations.

 

[charlie]

Fantastic write up Jono, really good stuff, but I'd strongly fancy Summerville Boy @ 20's over Supasundae @ 20's, purely on the basis that I am fairly confident (as you mention) that Supasundae couldn't beat BVD, whereas Summerville Boy to me is a question mark and could reach that level. Having watched the supreme back yesterday I completely underestimated just how impressive that performance was from Summerville Boy. 3 mistakes, 1 of which should have been race ending and he still won. I'd rather take 20's about a horse that has done that at Cheltenham and unexposed in grade 1 2m hurdle company, than Supasundae who is more of a known quantity.

 

[Kevloaf]

His 7th in the Supreme is enough to put me off at 20/1 - despite him showing improved form the older he's gotten. He was way behind BVD still in that race

Tracked leaders, hit 5th, ridden after 2 out, soon outpaced, 5th and held when hit last, no extra

I don't see him being fast enough over 2 miles, despite the races he won that you highlighted...but I'm sure you wouldn't put any stock in the literal form of beating Faugheen by 2L - as Faugheen wasn't the same Faugheen that'd won a CH. Supasundae is better than Mick Jazz over 2 miles IMO but I also won't be using Mick JAzz's CH run as literal form to bash BVD or Melon with either...
and
as you touched on, the beating of Wicklow Brave, is fair form, but not CH winning form.

I am not saying he COULDN'T win a Champion HUrdle... but he'd definitely need it to be a weak race and something to under perform... so I can see them going for the stayers again on better ground.

He may well face BVD in Ireland as he defends his Irish CH crown, and that'll be great, but if all has gone smoothly I would make BVD odds on to beat him, so wouldn't fancy the win part of a 20/1 bet.... and the actual returns for the place at 1/5 aren';t good enough with doubts on the target.

 

[jono]

Fantastic write up Jono, really good stuff, but I'd strongly fancy Summerville Boy @ 20's over Supasundae @ 20's, ...

Where can you see 20/1 charlie for Summerville Boy? Best price 16's as far as I can see? (if I can get 20's I will be adding)

Personally I'm not reading too much into the Supreme run. It of course does provide some (and actually the only direct) correlation between BVD and Supasundae and over the same course and distance. The way BVD was ridden during the race means you could say he was value for further but I wouldn't have said Supasundae was way behind - 4, hd, 1.25, shd separated the 4 horses so approx 5-6 lengths between the pair. A big distance yes but reflected in the price difference.

All and especially BVD have improved but just in isolation of Supasundae and not looking at other horses - Different trainer, jockey and 2 years have passed since where he does look a different horse - notably his jumping has improved considerably so how he handled the 2 miles then, I'd expect better now. That side I do think he fell into the 2 mile division last season only from a lack of competition / merely prep runs rather than a change of stance where connections thought it was his best trip which is always slightly off putting.

I guess i'm just looking at the market as it is now, and seeing how it may evolve once targets have been confirmed for some and some of the trials have taken place. Focusing on just the first 9 in the betting right now and 25/1 and shorter i'd expect...

English Trials
Buveur D'Air 7/2
Summerville Boy 16/1

Irish Trials
Melon 8/1
Supasundae 20/1
Laurina 14/1??? (or chasing)

Samcro 8/1 chasing
Min 16/1 chasing
Faugheen 25/1 stayers
Yorkhill 25/1 who knows?! (and in this form who cares ha!)

Putting Laurina to one side right now, i can't see much of a fight in the Irish trials and I could easily see Supasundae turning over Melon in one/more of those trials. Hence the 20/1 being pretty big for me and one that if he goes down the division (which i'm thinking they may well do) will definitely get shorter and into single figures later on.

However he's right now probably one of those prices and bets where i'm caught in the middle... He's certainly big enough to get my attention and represents some value but at the same time because i'm taking a risk on the target and the fav more than likely has the beating of him - isn't a big enough price to make me back him

...yet

 

[charlie]

I misread what you wrote Jono, I thought they were both 20's but its my mistake as SB is 16's across the board.

 

[SeanRock]

Labaik could be the forgotten horse going into this race next year. If his injury hasn’t had any lasting effects on his pace 33/1 seems a nice price about a previous Supreme winner. I’ve seen photos of him back in training at Cullentra recently so he’s being readied for racing anyway.

 

[Kevloaf]

Labaik could be the forgotten horse going into this race next year. If his injury hasn’t had any lasting effects on his pace 33/1 seems a nice price about a previous Supreme winner. I’ve seen photos of him back in training at Cullentra recently so he’s being readied for racing anyway.

I thought he was being readied for fences but I can't find any quotes at the moment... things could have changed with the time off the track though...

Tough horse to back ante post.... avoiding injury, not knowing if he's the same horse, not sure where he'll go....and even if you nail all of those, he might plant himself at the start :highly_amused:

33/1 way too big on his actual ability but the price reflects the doubts for sure

 

[SeanRock]

I thought he was being readied for fences but I can't find any quotes at the moment... things could have changed with the time off the track though...

Tough horse to back ante post.... avoiding injury, not knowing if he's the same horse, not sure where he'll go....and even if you nail all of those, he might plant himself at the start :highly_amused:

33/1 way too big on his actual ability but the price reflects the doubts for sure

He’s a bit of a monkey alright Kev but I’d be more worried about him planting at the post in Ireland where there’s not someone down there cracking the long whip to encourage them off (not allowed in Ireland). A prep campaign in England might suit him better. I never seen any mention of fences dont see the point really he never struck me as a natural jumper of a fence and he’s flat bred as far as I know.

 

[Kevloaf]

He’s a bit of a monkey alright Kev but I’d be more worried about him planting at the post in Ireland where there’s not someone down there cracking a whip to encourage them off (not allowed in Ireland) A prep campaign in England might suit him better. I never seen any mention of fences dont see the point really he never struck me as a natural jumper of a fence and he’s flat bred as far as I know.

Yeah absolutely right with the UK starting. The best workhorse in the Elliott yard was the quote from Elliott after the race - and he said they don't know what they'll be doing next. That is all I've found.

I'd agree he's much more likely to stay hurdling anyway, certainly one for the shortlist.

 

[billymag]

First antepost bet today 1pt ew on IF THE CAP FITS for the Champion hurdle at 50/1, this division looks fairly weak-ish. Hoping he has an injury free season so we can see how good this lad is, he looks to be quick and slick enough to make an impression over 2 miles, and at that price worth taking a punt as i feel he will be the best novice from last year to stay hurdling (assuming Samcro goes chasing)

 

[BigChaang]

Blimey Billymag !!, you must have put a wodge on , L.o.l.:highly_amused: only 33-1 now !!

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

First antepost bet today 1pt ew on IF THE CAP FITS for the Champion hurdle at 50/1, this division looks fairly weak-ish. Hoping he has an injury free season so we can see how good this lad is, he looks to be quick and slick enough to make an impression over 2 miles, and at that price worth taking a punt as i feel he will be the best novice from last year to stay hurdling (assuming Samcro goes chasing)

Have they said he stays hurdling Billy?

 

[billymag]

Yes stays hurdling back in good form.

lol doesnt take more than a few quid to move prices at 50/1 BigChanng. Either that or PP were that scared by my power and influence they cut the price fearing an avalanche of "informed money" lol

 

[Geordieboy83]

40/1 with Skybet

 

[Kevloaf]

Yes stays hurdling back in good form.

lol doesnt take more than a few quid to move prices at 50/1 BigChanng. Either that or PP were that scared by my power and influence they cut the price fearing an avalanche of "informed money" lol

Excellent news.

I'll be building towards a 4 figure return.... big fan still.

 

[billymag]

He looks a value bet in a pretty average looking market, hopefully stays fit to find out how good he is.

 

[jono]

Thanks for the update Billy. I was waiting to hear if he stayed hurdling and if he was sound. :encouragement:
I've added 1pt EW at 40/1.

Have a feeling we may well see him nice and early, avoiding a big clash early on. After his Kempton win at Christmas time last year I'll guess he could line up at the same track on their jumps opening weekend (21st October). Was a race The New One used as an easy starting point for a few years and is generally pretty easy pickings (Hargam and Old Guard have won the last 2 renewals). Fry has had a couple of runners in the race before - including when Rock on Ruby took on The New One in 2013.

 

[Kevloaf]

If The Cap Fits' win on Boxing Day wasn't very strong. He's 40/1 based on his actual form, and has some serious potential to shorten

Looking at the class 2 on Boxing day, he comfortably beat:

2nd Diese Des Bieffes, rated 128 going in to the race, now rated 141
3rd Solomon Grey - now rated 135
4th Simply The Betts - now rated 130
5th Ar Mest - now rated 117
6th Irish Prophecy - now rated 129
7th Airtight - can't find it
Fell - Storm Home - now rated 137

Diese Des Biefes has had 3 runs since, 1 win in a class 2 novice hurdle and prior to that, two 5th places in the Lanzarote and Martin Pipe at the festival when one of the favourites for both.

Only a couple of wins from the others but that isn't a stick to beat him with. I think jono could be right with the potential targets and he's one I just have to get onside before he runs.

He has 18 lbs to find with Melon, and 9 lbs to find with Summerville Boy... we'll need a positive reappearance but he could easily get to Christmas and be 3rd in the market.

 

[billymag]

As it stands IF THE CAP FITS will be going down the International route to gain experience rather than exploit a lenient looking mark in races like the Greatwood

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Added If The Cap Fits too. 1pt win 40/1