Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[Middle_Of_March]

I'm not sure I can back a champion bumper horse that ends up at Cheltenham for a hurdles race at the festival.

I'm not sure on the official statistics but I'm pretty sure it's not a profitable path to follow.

For this years festival from the previous years bumper, they look like the following (in order of bumper finish):

Debuchet 9th in Supreme (2nd)
Claimintakinforgan 5th in Supreme (3rd)
Next Destination 3rd in Ballymore (4th)
Western Ryder 6th in Supreme (5th)
Carter McKay 11th in Martin Pipe (15th)

And the previous years:

Ballyandy 4th in Supreme (1st)
Battleford 8th in Martin Pipe (2nd)
Bacardys PU in Neptune (3rd)
Castello Sforza 10th in Martin Pipe (4th)
High Bridge 9th in Supreme (6th)
Augusta Kate 6th in Albert Bartlett (7th)
Rather Be Unseated in Martin Pipe (9th)

Basically, the markets are initially made up of champion bumper horses from the previous season and they seem to fail to perform the next year. I made a point about it on the Supreme thread for the festival just gone, I will stick by it and it certainly is more profitable avoiding them than it is backing them. Hollowgraphic, a bit like Samcro, avoided the festival bumper so he could well be a decent type to follow, but Blackbow will not be seeing the colour of money at all.

Good post. I’d thought similar but didn’t know the stats.

Hollowgraphic looked like a bit of a monster before his setback and if I was to back any for next season, it would be him. I’d say he’s a Ballymore type. I think Felix Desjy will be a better hurdler than bumper horse - probably Ballymore for him too.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Any know anything about Dento Des Obeaux, cheers

Only that he's trained by Willie, owned by Sullivan Bloodstock, and ran once in France, other than that, no, sorry!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Good post. I’d thought similar but didn’t know the stats.

Hollowgraphic looked like a bit of a monster before his setback and if I was to back any for next season, it would be him. I’d say he’s a Ballymore type. I think Felix Desjy will be a better hurdler than bumper horse - probably Ballymore for him too.

Yeah, it's probably ridiculous to say you have any to follow so soon after completing this years festival but I agree, Hollowgraphic is one of the two I am following for the Ballymore, the other being Danny Kirwan.

Early visuals were very exciting for both. I hope both live up to the expectations I have of them.

No doubt there will be plenty of the French, unseen, types that will make the markets for both the Supreme & Ballymore as next season gets underway.

 

[Scooby91]

Only that he's trained by Willie, owned by Sullivan Bloodstock, and ran once in France, other than that, no, sorry!

He's nothing exciting on paper in terms of grade 1s. 5th in his hurdle at nantes, bought form a vendor who wouldn't be the usual type to recommend him one. Mullins can work wonders given time but There's much more likely types he's acquired imo.
Maccaire and fouin are the usual suspects to lay him out a nice novice that's retained his status.

 

[SeanRock]

I'm not sure I can back a champion bumper horse that ends up at Cheltenham for a hurdles race at the festival.

I'm not sure on the official statistics but I'm pretty sure it's not a profitable path to follow.

For this years festival from the previous years bumper, they look like the following (in order of bumper finish):

Debuchet 9th in Supreme (2nd)
Claimintakinforgan 5th in Supreme (3rd)
Next Destination 3rd in Ballymore (4th)
Western Ryder 6th in Supreme (5th)
Carter McKay 11th in Martin Pipe (15th)

And the previous years:

Ballyandy 4th in Supreme (1st)
Battleford 8th in Martin Pipe (2nd)
Bacardys PU in Neptune (3rd)
Castello Sforza 10th in Martin Pipe (4th)
High Bridge 9th in Supreme (6th)
Augusta Kate 6th in Albert Bartlett (7th)
Rather Be Unseated in Martin Pipe (9th)

Basically, the markets are initially made up of champion bumper horses from the previous season and they seem to fail to perform the next year. I made a point about it on the Supreme thread for the festival just gone, I will stick by it and it certainly is more profitable avoiding them than it is backing them. Hollowgraphic, a bit like Samcro, avoided the festival bumper so he could well be a decent type to follow, but Blackbow will not be seeing the colour of money at all.

I'd be quietly confident Carefully Selected will be a force to be reckoned with in the staying novice hurdle division next year. A fine big slab of a horse coming from a successful PTP background I'm sure anything he does in bumpers is only a bonus until he goes jumping obstacles.

 

[billymag]

Cheers Comply or die and Scooby, hes one ive heard is going well and might be out soon, think they are after keeping his novice status for next season first.

 

[paz247]

Scooby, you mentioned Klassical Dream, does the new owner put you off?

 

[Scooby91]

Scooby, you mentioned Klassical Dream, does the new owner put you off?

"Mr John Coleman" registered on the HRI registrations page. Dosent particularly put me off as everyone gets a fair crack at it. I deffinately wouldn't be backing antepost however. But he has the potential to be a smart novice. May even run this season in the punchestown juvenile and retain his status. I'd have thought he will end up over further than 2 miles too.

Is he realistically going to be winning a grade 1 at Cheltenham next year...
Not imo on what he's done. But he's a raw one that interests me to see what mullins can get out of him.


I won't be backing any novice this side of Christmas I hope.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

"Mr John Coleman" registered on the HRI registrations page. Dosent particularly put me off as everyone gets a fair crack at it. I deffinately wouldn't be backing antepost however. But he has the potential to be a smart novice. May even run this season in the punchestown juvenile and retain his status. I'd have thought he will end up over further than 2 miles too.

Is he realistically going to be winning a grade 1 at Cheltenham next year...
Not imo on what he's done. But he's a raw one that interests me to see what mullins can get out of him.


I won't be backing any novice this side of Christmas I hope.

I certainly won't be backing any for specific races either (3 years running, surely I have learnt my lesson by now :highly_amused, have however ventured into the 'any race' market for the first time ever this early on though.

 

[Birds Nest]

Tom George and Roger Brookhouse might have another one for next years supreme lined up in 'Good man jim'
Micheal Goff put him up as the best he's ever had...went for 360,000 back at nov chelt sales...i've also noted that when he won his maiden the reat of Goff's stable were sick at the time too...

 

[Geordieboy83]

Love this thread. My one bet I will be trying with free bets etc is

B’Dair - CH
Laurina - Mares
Penhill -Stayers

 

[Birds Nest]

Even though the stayers hurdle was run at a snails pace and favoured finishers i still think Penhill is a good bet for next year...I think Laurina will have to contend with a different Apples jade next year, Apples apparantly came into season at this years Fest and that is being put up as the excuse for poor run...who knows...

 

[Istabraq]

When assessing Penhill’s performance it’s worth noting the route he took, 3 wide for much of the race so will have travelled a fair bit further than the rest, there’s more in the tank, only a daring Winter flat campaign can scupper his defence I feel....

 

[Birds Nest]

Completely agree. Lets hope willie gets his wish and he stays in his box this summer....any thoughts on summervillie boy going up in trip next season? I cant have him in the ch on normal fest ground....maybe stayers for him too?

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Completely agree. Lets hope willie gets his wish and he stays in his box this summer....any thoughts on summervillie boy going up in trip next season? I cant have him in the ch on normal fest ground....maybe stayers for him too?

Stayers? For the Supreme winner? I can’t see that happening in any way whatsoever

 

[Birds Nest]

Normally i would agree with you but i dont think we had a normal festival.Summerville needed every inch of that supreme in the mud and hes got plenty of stamina on dams side. Just a thought from outside the box..

 

[paz247]

"Mr John Coleman" registered on the HRI registrations page. Dosent particularly put me off as everyone gets a fair crack at it. I deffinately wouldn't be backing antepost however. But he has the potential to be a smart novice. May even run this season in the punchestown juvenile and retain his status. I'd have thought he will end up over further than 2 miles too.

Is he realistically going to be winning a grade 1 at Cheltenham next year...
Not imo on what he's done. But he's a raw one that interests me to see what mullins can get out of him.


I won't be backing any novice this side of Christmas I hope.

Cheers Scooby

 

[Bigfish]

Does anyone else other than me think that Balko Des Flos is unconsidered for the Gold Cup. What have Giggi got for this next year? He won the Ryanair very well and the form looks solid to me. I think he might be stepped up in trip. I'm on.

 

[Kevloaf]

When assessing Penhill’s performance it’s worth noting the route he took, 3 wide for much of the race so will have travelled a fair bit further than the rest, there’s more in the tank, only a daring Winter flat campaign can scupper his defence I feel....

Unfortunately, despite saying Penhill "isn't suited to being trained for the flat" ... Mullins has suggested Penhill has a target on the flat.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Unfortunately, despite saying Penhill "isn't suited to being trained for the flat" ... Mullins has suggested Penhill has a target on the flat.

Is the Melbourne Cup the aim? It's a race that Tony Bloom is desperate to win by all accounts.