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Supreme Novices 2018
- Thread starter jono
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kinloch brae
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At least someone must have finally asked the question.
To be fair he is hardly going to admit to deliberately keeping the horse away from left-handed tracks. I expect that before his point they wouldn't have given any indication beforehand that he was likely to run off the track. If people want to ignore it that's up to them but I would much rather see him prove it on the track rather than just accept positives from any trainer. Different scenario if he was 50/1.
Folski
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kinloch brae
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Folski
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My mistake was convinced it was LH.
I still think people are making a pretty big deal out of it.
He will go for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and he impressed us all at Punchestown last time. He is improving all the time, but is not a flashy horse at home. Even the other day I wasn’t impressed with his work, but Sonny Carey that rides him felt he was in great order and he knows him very well. All of his runs on the track have been right-handed, but that wasn’t deliberate and we haven’t seen any reason to doubt his ability to perform going left-handed.
If they haven't ran him in schooling hurdles and worked at home left handed I'd be astounded
If they haven't ran him in schooling hurdles and worked at home left handed I'd be astounded
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Exactly, for all we know he could be 'better' going left handed, he's not like a Brain Power where he has been beaten twice going left handed round Cheltenham, he remains unbeaten and until some piece of form says otherwise I honestly don't even know why this is being questioned to be honest!
We could say this about probably quite a few horses I'd imagine, but we don't bring it up because they are not favourites, but still go with some chance.
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BigChaang
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It is a change for RR to run two against each other but there have been countless examples of second string horses winning big races so it wouldn't really be enough to put me off. It just means I'll be getting a bigger price.
T.b.h , I'm just happy to have my sharjah bets in play and get a run for my money.
FaugheenTheMachine
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The more I go through this race I really just can’t see any danger to Getabird bar possibly Kalashnikov
charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
No interest in Getabird. I can't help thinking lack of market depth combined with the Mullins/Ricci factor is seeing people land on him rather than having a strong opinion he will win. Getabird follows plenty of recent Mullins/Ricci Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle winners and I don't think he is in their league. Can see him getting smashed to bits on the day and beaten
ComplyOrDie
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I would agree that it was a case of process of elimination to get to Getabird for me, that was before his run against Mengli Khan & co anyway. That run made him the best of the Irish IMO, this under the assumption Samcro was always heading to the Ballymore.
I must admit though, I had Getabird written down all last year (think I mentioned it at an earlier point in this thread also), but also had him going up in trip and should have realised that Willie has always said a Supreme horse also needs to be a staying type that he had every chance of coming here, not to mention I got sucked into the Annamix hype, left me a little gutted I left him out of any Supreme bets until the price had all but gone on him.
I am happy now he is the Supreme horse as he is one I really liked last season anyway, I'm just annoyed at myself for ignoring him for more hype rather than substance!!
I honestly don't know, of the British lot, which one I hold with the best chance which is probably why I landed back on the familiar grounds of a Mullins runner.
What makes you say he isn't in their league charlie?
2018 - Getabird won it with a RPR of 152 - beating a G1 hurdle winner 9L in MEngli Khan
2017 - Crack Mome 2nd with a RPR of 142
2016 - Min won it with a rating of 152 (same) beating Attribution 9.5L (who had only won a maiden)
2015 - Douvan won with an RPR of 149, beating Alpha Des Obeaux who won a maiden hurdle and came 2nd in a G3 hurdle
2014 - Vautour won it with an RPR of 145 beating Western Boy by 0.75L who had won a maiden only
Strictly using the Moscow Flyer as a negative for Getabird based on the above is impossible IMO - Obviously nobody will be using the above evidence to have full faith, as year on year each race is different... but I do think you CANNOT argue that Getabird IS NOT in their league, at that point in each of their careers?
In fact, strictly on that data above you could argue Getabird has achieved more than any of them had at that stage.
Evening all... This horse was smashed for last year bumper before he got injured then he has came out and beaten a good horse by some margin so not just a talking hose IMO, I know it's always good to find value in a race but when you see a good horse why try, he is a smashing horse has a great trainer & a good owner so I see no reason to bet against him, If I was looking for value at this stage I would leave this race alone and look at the handicaps..
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Quevega
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Getabird form is rock solid, and the manner in which he did it was better than any of the previous winners of the Moscow Flyer,especially given the runner up's previous form.
Loved how he set a good gallop, slowed it down and then put it to bed easily after the last. The fact that Gordon Elliott looks like throwing very little at this race is telling also.
If they do push it out to 5/2 on the day then that's decent, as he would appear to have no dangers from Ireland, so unless you think the British form is better then it's a pretty solid first race bet.
Virtually all the British challengers look staying types and will likely get outpaced down the hill, although one or two may well stay on nicely up the hill, I can't imagine any of the field being on the bridle aside from Paloma Blue and Getabird (possibly the henderson horse).
Faugheen_Machine
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I think there are (potential) reasons to take Getabird on at his current price.
Does he go left handed? The truth is, we don't know yet.
Does he need soft ground? Possibly, but it's likely to be on the softer side of good on day 1
Does he need further than 2 miles? Possibly but this is often a positive in this race
He's short enough for me and I'll find two or three to take him on with when the bookies come up with the enhanced place terms.
I'd love to be on him at some of the prices the lads on here have got, but I missed the boat unfortunately.:sorrow:
Does he go left handed? The truth is, we don't know yet.
Does he need soft ground? Possibly, but it's likely to be on the softer side of good on day 1
Does he need further than 2 miles? Possibly but this is often a positive in this race
He's short enough for me and I'll find two or three to take him on with when the bookies come up with the enhanced place terms.
I'd love to be on him at some of the prices the lads on here have got, but I missed the boat unfortunately.:sorrow:
Iv never seen enhanced place terms on the supreme before. ??
I really don't get how people thing paloma blue will get anywhere near getabird in this, hes done very little. And I can't see the angle. He dosent jump well enough at pace, and h3 just isn't good enough to win regardless.
I really can't see anything other than a getabird win here. It's a shame ITCF isn't running as atleast he was unexposed and still had plenty in the tank in his wins. It's almost going to be a pretty boring race.
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Yeah me too I am only on at 3/1 but that to me is a steal.. was going to back him at 14s but thought he was a ballymore horse so backed real steel instead doh... he is short but only because he has done nothing wrong. But then again I did say that 2 years ago with Min...
Faugheen_Machine
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William Hill paid first 5 in this the year Champagne Fever won, and there were only 12 runners (including 2 200/1 shots). I'd say thats enhanced place terms
The only interesting thing about this race is who comes 2nd. And how far does he win by. Other than that. He turns up, he wins.