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Supreme Novices 2018

We've probably all got our ideas in our heads about who wins and places in this race now...

Sky are £20 free if you lose
Betway £25 free if you lose****this needs checking! Read it on twitter, sorry.
Coral £25 free if you lose

How are people approaching that? I might be able to get on with multiple accounts for some of them too.

Do people back what they already fancy?
Cover some losers?
Do you aim for massive prices and expect the free bets?
Do you use the free bets as darts in handicaps/bumper hoping to get lucky?

Plenty of ways to use these offers to our advantage. Be interested to know peoples thoughts (even if you can't get on, what WOULD you do if you could)
 
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Kevloaf said:
We've probably all got our ideas in our heads about who wins and places in this race now...

Sky are £20 free if you lose
Betway £25 free if you lose
Coral £25 free if you lose

How are people approaching that? I might be able to get on with multiple accounts for some of them too.

Do people back what they already fancy?
Cover some losers?
Do you aim for massive prices and expect the free bets?
Do you use the free bets as darts in handicaps/bumper hoping to get lucky?

Plenty of ways to use these offers to our advantage. Be interested to know peoples thoughts (even if you can't get on, what WOULD you do if you could)
Click to expand...

The only advice I'd offer is to go win only. There is very little value going ew on free bets.
 
Kevloaf said:
We've probably all got our ideas in our heads about who wins and places in this race now...

Sky are £20 free if you lose
Betway £25 free if you lose
Coral £25 free if you lose

How are people approaching that? I might be able to get on with multiple accounts for some of them too.

Do people back what they already fancy?
Cover some losers?
Do you aim for massive prices and expect the free bets?
Do you use the free bets as darts in handicaps/bumper hoping to get lucky?

Plenty of ways to use these offers to our advantage. Be interested to know peoples thoughts (even if you can't get on, what WOULD you do if you could)
Click to expand...

Last year betway was offering £10 first or last race as a free bet if you lose, are you sure its £25 this year Kev?
 
Are these free bets available on all platforms? Bit surprised Corals are joining in. As an old timer I still use a telephone credit account.

This would obviously be a better offer had you not already placed a bet or more likely bets.

Of my two, Real Steel has no chance wherever he turns up but I had been getting more confident about Paloma Blue. I was thinking better ground would suit but it now looks as if we will not get the usual on the good side of good to soft. I don't particularly like those at the front end of the market so it will probably be a dart throw at a big price. I would much prefer to top up on Paloma Blue.
 
Sirbetalot said:
Last year betway was offering £10 first or last race as a free bet if you lose, are you sure its £25 this year Kev?
Click to expand...

No not sure. Read it somewhere. Can't see it on their site either ATM.
 
Kevloaf said:
We've probably all got our ideas in our heads about who wins and places in this race now...

Sky are £20 free if you lose
Betway £25 free if you lose
Coral £25 free if you lose


How are people approaching that? I might be able to get on with multiple accounts for some of them too.

Do people back what they already fancy?
Cover some losers?
Do you aim for massive prices and expect the free bets?
Do you use the free bets as darts in handicaps/bumper hoping to get lucky?

Plenty of ways to use these offers to our advantage. Be interested to know peoples thoughts (even if you can't get on, what WOULD you do if you could)
Click to expand...


Where did you see the £25 Betway offer Kev?
 
kinloch brae said:
Are these free bets available on all platforms? Bit surprised Corals are joining in. As an old timer I still use a telephone credit account.

This would obviously be a better offer had you not already placed a bet or more likely bets.

Of my two, Real Steel has no chance wherever he turns up but I had been getting more confident about Paloma Blue. I was thinking better ground would suit but it now looks as if we will not get the usual on the good side of good to soft. I don't particularly like those at the front end of the market so it will probably be a dart throw at a big price. I would much prefer to top up on Paloma Blue.
Click to expand...

Not sure KB.

Probably worth calling up and asking though?

If trhey say no, say they're discriminating you based on age and get a free bet that way :highly_amused:
 
That's the WH offer in 2013, so was 5 places.

His staking was slightly different but il do it reduce your variance slightly (ie the most ev bet can be the highest variance one, so will take that into consideration)

All with Hills 1/4 top 5

Jezki £100ew @9/2 BOG
Champagne Fever £80ew @5/1 BOG
Puffin Billy £60ew @12/1 BOG
Cause of causes £50ew @ 25/1 BOG
Cheltnian £40ew @ 25/1 BOG

Something along them lines. Alternatively you could just have maximum each way on all of them, or take an opinion on the race and increase variance. Id recommend just clicking the maximum button and seeing where it takes you....
 
Kevloaf said:
Not sure KB.

Probably worth calling up and asking though?

If trhey say no, say they're discriminating you based on age and get a free bet that way :highly_amused:
Click to expand...

Thanks, the only decent offer I can remember Coral doing was the £20 to 1/1 Sprinter Sacre. It was the equivalent of finding a £20 note in the street.
 
TimRiggins said:
That's the WH offer in 2013, so was 5 places.

His staking was slightly different but il do it reduce your variance slightly (ie the most ev bet can be the highest variance one, so will take that into consideration)

All with Hills 1/4 top 5

Jezki £100ew @9/2 BOG
Champagne Fever £80ew @5/1 BOG
Puffin Billy £60ew @12/1 BOG
Cause of causes £50ew @ 25/1 BOG
Cheltnian £40ew @ 25/1 BOG

Something along them lines. Alternatively you could just have maximum each way on all of them, or take an opinion on the race and increase variance. Id recommend just clicking the maximum button and seeing where it takes you....
Click to expand...

There were two 200/1 shots in the 12 runners who both pulled up.

I had max e/w bet (at the time) ... on Dodging Bullets.

I am still bitter about it.

How can a horse than finishes 9th in a Supreme... win a Champion Chase.
4th in Western Warhorse' Arkle too.

Must be my least favourite horse. Awful little beast haha
 
I've backed Summerville Boy at 12/1 with SkyBet's offer, hoping the true pace Getabird is likely to set will suit him as he's been caught out in tactically run races in the past but the form of the Tolworth has worked out plus Noel lost his irons at he last hurdle that day & the winning margin could have been more. Bar the favourite he's the only one that appeals to me after ITCF's withdrawal.
 
Not sure on my thoughts on this race tbh after my ITCF was withdrawn.

I’m split between the front two in the market but I want to take advantage of all the bookie offers.

I’ll probably just stick the £20 with skybet and the £25 with Coral on getabird and throw a £20 On Kilashnakov and see what happens. I can see the former outpacing the latter if the ground is good to soft. I really like Kilashnikov though. Had him for the Betfair hurdle and thought he travelled really nicely throughout and stayed on well. I worry Getabird turn of foot could just be too potent for him.
 
Mengli Khan for me. The more I think about it the more drawn I am to MK
 
charlie said:
Mengli Khan for me. The more I think about it the more drawn I am to MK
Click to expand...

Why charlie.... show your workings.

I think he's going to get closer to Getabird ... but would closer get him ahead? is MK an E/W play at best now?
 
I still think getabird pinched that race at the start. All the other jockeys seemed to be asleep. Think MK will finish a lot closer .
 
Always a difficult puzzle to solve this, which horses have looked good out slogging others in heavy ground, and purely outstayed those that can't handle the ground, as opposed to those who have put up excellent performances despite the ground being unsuitable.
I always take notice of connection comments such as "hated the ground" or "couldn't get his feet out of the mud" and the old chestnut "will improve massively for better ground" sometimes they are just making excuses and the horses just aren't that good, other times you can see where they're coming from and follow them to a big price in a top race, just worth having a couple of big priced ones onside ew, and avoiding those that look too short, Getabird looks too short to me, wouldn't lay him but I wouldn't back him either
 
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