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National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2018

Scooby91 said:
Dounikos will be the best horse in the race if he does indeed go, which elliot is implying will be the case..
one that iv missed but should be on. Would be rare giggi sent one for the 4 miler that could win an rsa.
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Maybe they feel Shattered Love is good enough after all ;)
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Maybe they feel Shattered Love is good enough after all ;)
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An each way double perhaps on the cards :p

I will run two or three in the National Hunt Chase. We are looking at Dounikos, Jury Duty and Fagan at the moment.

"Dounikos has entries in the RSA Insurance Novices' Chase and the JLT Novices' Chase, but I think the National Hunt Chase is made for him.

"Both Dounikos and Jury Duty have Grade One form. The National Hunt Chase was the first race I won at The Festival, with Chicago Grey in 2011, and these two are a lot classier horses. For me, it is a better race every year and you need a 150-rated horse to win it.

"Fagan is coming in fresh. He was second in the Albert Bartlett in 2016 and, although he has had a few problems since, hopefully they are behind him. He is working well at home and is another who likes the sun on his back.
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Certainly interesting comments. I'd never really considered this as a race that Elliott particularly targets but I'll rethink than next year.

I won't be able to leave Dounikos unbacked... not sure whether to take a punt at 10s without the NRNB or ride it out and hope he's still 6/1 on the day? (same as NRNB now)
 
I can't get Dounikos out of my head at all.

Elliott seems to have won the battle to get him here (as someone else put it!) and that is some statement of intent? His comments are pretty clear that he'd expect a big big run from him!

Just looking at some of his form, not raced on good much but did win a 2m7f hurdle on good in November with Ruby on board.

Codd, Nina and Katie Walsh have ALL sat on him before too! Plus Lisa O'Neill in the mix.

I am so so so annoyed with myself for missing the price.


I am tempted at 10.3/1 to have a NRNB double on with Apple's Jade and hope its a good 40 minute spell for Gordon/Gigginstown!
 
Kevloaf said:
I can't get Dounikos out of my head at all.

Elliott seems to have won the battle to get him here (as someone else put it!) and that is some statement of intent? His comments are pretty clear that he'd expect a big big run from him!

Just looking at some of his form, not raced on good much but did win a 2m7f hurdle on good in November with Ruby on board.

Codd, Nina and Katie Walsh have ALL sat on him before too! Plus Lisa O'Neill in the mix.

I am so so so annoyed with myself for missing the price.


I am tempted at 10.3/1 to have a NRNB double on with Apple's Jade and hope its a good 40 minute spell for Gordon/Gigginstown!
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Elliot says " either Derek or jamie will ride " , but not 100 % sure he means Dounikos ???. did back him at small stakes coz i thought
he was going R.s.a , But Also , I quite fancy Shattered love for r.sa now, ??.
 
Is Dounikos a strong enough stayer? I’m not sure. I’ll have a bit on as potential is there but his runs at 3 miles over hurdles aren’t inspiring. Has looked great the last couple of times staying on over 2m 4 but obviously a huge difference beteeen that and the NH chase distance. The more I look the more I like Jury Duty’s profile and prep for this race so will likely make him my biggest winner
 
Robbante said:
Is Dounikos a strong enough stayer? I’m not sure. I’ll have a bit on as potential is there but his runs at 3 miles over hurdles aren’t inspiring. Has looked great the last couple of times staying on over 2m 4 but obviously a huge difference beteeen that and the NH chase distance. The more I look the more I like Jury Duty’s profile and prep for this race so will likely make him my biggest winner
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I like the horse but he doesn't fit many trends, so out for me. Were you a bit concerned with how JD stopped in the last race?
 
Robbante said:
Dounikos or Jury Duty not hitting the trends?
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I agree on Dounikos but definitely not for Jury Duty. Re Dounikos, run less than 5 times over fences and has not finished in the top 2 in a chase over 3 miles (2m7f his furthest test). For the stats people these are negatives. I can understand the appeal but certainly not one for me. Monbeg Notorious, Moulin A Vent and Elegant Escape all appeal more.
 
Do you really want to take 8/1 about a horse going up more than a mile in trip? In a poor year for staying novices (Presenting Percy aside) they obviously don't think he is good enough for either a JLT or an RSA. It looks like a bit of a dart throw yet the horse is favourite. I think it says more about the opposition than his ability.
 
I can't believe the price of Dounikos. Madness to my eyes and agree there isn't anything to give you confidence that this trip is what he needs.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I can't believe the price of Dounikos. Madness to my eyes and agree there isn't anything to give you confidence that this trip is what he needs.
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It's the persistence of Elliott to get him here for me that I'm finding appealing. Everything everyone is saying looks true, so Elliott must be really confident he will get the trip which must be worth consideration?

I'd be very happy if doinikos is no where at the moment but I'm not ruling me backing him out yet
 
Kevloaf said:
It's the persistence of Elliott to get him here for me that I'm finding appealing. Everything everyone is saying looks true, so Elliott must be really confident he will get the trip which must be worth consideration?

I'd be very happy if doinikos is no where at the moment but I'm not ruling me backing him out yet
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But in an open looking RSA, Im wondering why they don't think that's worth a go if the horse if as good as they think? Im seeing it as a bit of a negative for him, especially considering Gigg don't have anything else in the RSA tbh. He ran a cracker in the Flogas, and perhaps the step up to 3m will bring the best out of him and help him reverse placings with the principals? He doesnt have much to find.

There is very little stamina on the dam's side of his breeding, and even his sire is more pace than stamina to my eyes.
 
Kevloaf said:
It's the persistence of Elliott to get him here for me that I'm finding appealing. Everything everyone is saying looks true, so Elliott must be really confident he will get the trip which must be worth consideration?

I'd be very happy if doinikos is no where at the moment but I'm not ruling me backing him out yet
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To keep the prices of his other runners up :highly_amused:;)
 
Can't Catch Me said:
But in an open looking RSA, Im wondering why they don't think that's worth a go if the horse if as good as they think? Im seeing it as a bit of a negative for him, especially considering Gigg don't have anything else in the RSA tbh. He ran a cracker in the Flogas, and perhaps the step up to 3m will bring the best out of him and help him reverse placings with the principals? He doesnt have much to find.

There is very little stamina on the dam's side of his breeding, and even his sire is more pace than stamina to my eyes.
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Is the RSA open though? Or does Elliott think he can't win that?

This looks to be the weaker of the two races?

Maybe he isn't as good as you think they think and he can only win the 4 miler?

I'm struggling to pick a side here haha
 
Kevloaf said:
Is the RSA open though? Or does Elliott think he can't win that?

This looks to be the weaker of the two races?

Maybe he isn't as good as you think they think and he can only win the 4 miler?

I'm struggling to pick a side here haha
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I think the race is open as there isnt a hot fav and PP certainly isnt a Samcro / BD / Apples Jade etc.

In the context of the RSA, Dounikos only finished 1 1/2l behind the horse who is moreorless fav for this race last time. Id agree the Four Miler is the weaker of the two races, but its also a much bigger ask to find a horse who can stay 4 miles for me. So that makes it difficult in a different way I suppose.

Obviously GE has forgotten more than I know, so should go with his view. But I personally thought Monbeg Notorious would be the Gigg first string. By Milan out of a Presenting mare, he screams stamina to me. I know Dounikos beat him but that was MN's seasonal debut whereas Dounikos was race fit. MN was 2/1 that day and Dounikos 28/1 which suggests they thought MN a vastly superior animal at that time.

They've clearly both progressed as the season has gone on, but Id fancy MN strongly to reverse the form over 4m at Chelts myself. His win in the Thystes was really impressive.

Although Dounikos being so well supported perhaps suggests MN goes to the Ultima. Its a riddle as usual!
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I think the race is open as there isnt a hot fav and PP certainly isnt a Samcro / BD / Apples Jade etc.

In the context of the RSA, Dounikos only finished 1 1/2l behind the horse who is moreorless fav for this race last time. Id agree the Four Miler is the weaker of the two races, but its also a much bigger ask to find a horse who can stay 4 miles for me. So that makes it difficult in a different way I suppose.

Obviously GE has forgotten more than I know, so should go with his view. But I personally thought Monbeg Notorious would be the Gigg first string. By Milan out of a Presenting mare, he screams stamina to me. I know Dounikos beat him but that was MN's seasonal debut whereas Dounikos was race fit. MN was 2/1 that day and Dounikos 28/1 which suggests they thought MN a vastly superior animal at that time.

They've clearly both progressed as the season has gone on, but Id fancy MN strongly to reverse the form over 4m at Chelts myself. His win in the Thystes was really impressive.

Although Dounikos being so well supported perhaps suggests MN goes to the Ultima. Its a riddle as usual!
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Pretty sure monbeg notorious goes for the Irish national alongside mossback

To be fair they haven't said dounikos deffinately goes here yet.
 
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