I'd echo a lot of what CCM is saying here, the 2nd place in a grade 1 at Kempton is in all likelyhood pretty flattering for Elegant Escape. Obviously we can't say what would have happened if both Mia's Storm and more importantly Fountains Windfall had of stayed up but at the points where they fell - first Mia's Storm was ahead of Elegant Escape who at the time was been pushed along, ridden and on his feet before clattering the 6th out and then fallen at 5 out. FW then fell 4 out when it looked like he had the race at his mercy. Now again for all we know EE may well have finished second regardless but i'd argue that would have been unlikely, certainly finishing in front of FW. If both had finished ahead of him that day - would a 4th instead of 2nd in that race changed the outcome of his target?
15 Oct - 3.5L behind Mia's Storm
7 Nov - 13L behind Ballyoptic
2 Dec - 0.5L ahead of Black Corton (receiving 3lbs, Fountains Windfall every chance before falling)
26 Dec - 1.5L behind Black Corton (this time level weights, Fountains Windfall several lengths ahead before falling)
11 Feb - 13L ahead of Ramses de Teillee
Elegant Escape is only 6 years old. In time and long term I would be surprised if he hasn't clearly outclassed the likes of Black Corton, Ballyoptic and Mia's Storm but right now his form is heavily tied in closely with those runners. Ballyoptic clearly ran no race at Kempton yet put him away easily the previous time they met. Off level weights Black Corton reversed the form at Newbury and it's questionable whether Mia's Storm may well have beaten him for the second time at Kempton.
You say if it turns out he wasn't good enough in the RSA they'd take it on the chin...if he's outpaced in the RSA but stays on up the hill, surely that would have made them think "maybe we should have gone for the 4 miler". If they decide to go for this race then he's their most likely winner of the whole week. They have a horse in the yard in Native River who tackled the 4 miler when you could have used the same argument for him. He came second then went onto win the Hennessy, Welsh National and 3rd in the Gold Cup the next year. And this year again is a strong contender for the Gold Cup. They are already talking about the same targets for Elegant Escape. So why change a formula that worked well previously. Particularly as the 4 miler had been mentioned several times early on in the season. Plans are always fluid of course and fair enough if the horse had showed a massive level of improvement as the season has gone on and forced their hand but his form is solid over spectacular.
He's one of my favourite horses of the season and i'm on 55/1 in this race and then 40/1 for the RSA so if he proved me wrong and won the RSA i'd still be absolutely delighted but all the evidence in his chasing career from what i've seen so far suggests the 4 miler is the best race for him - for the level he's been running too and how he's ran during each race.
I can see your point on Presenting Percy. My view on him - like i've said before I actually don't think Cheltenham is at the forefront of connections mind. The Irish National is the one for them. They haven't campaigned the horse for a specific festival race as such imo, instead favouring a pretty shrewd bit of placing for prize money route towards the Spring. €29.5k for the November Fairyhouse Handicap and €26.5k and Galmoy Hurdle are decent size prize pots in arguably easier races - more than most grade 2 chases (the grade 2 on Boxing Day that Al Boum Photo fell in was worth €26k). At the forefront of their minds I feel is to keep the partnership up with Russell, something that can't be done in this race and they can try and go for the extra £25k that the RSA is worth. Plus add in the fact of Mall Dini like CCM says. He'd win this race hands down for me, it's the most logical race and his best chance of winning at the festival. They're not going to pass up a strong chance at the festival with a horse like him but I don't think they'd care less if he ran say 4th in the RSA and then followed up with a win in the National. IF connections had actually wanted to work back from the RSA and it was all about that race, I think he would have been campaigned in a more traditional manner and taken in the main Irish trials.
Even taking Presenting Percy aside, where do you place the likes of Elegant Escape, and Black Corton against say the Flogas field, many of which are likely to step up to 3 miles?
.