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National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2018

I like the idea behind Rathvinden and Patrick getting a sighter. 16/1 NRNB is right up my street. 1.5 pts e/w. Might increase that.

He does have an entry in the Grand National, as well as all 3 Cheltenham Novice chases.....

Has won over 3m1f,

Brought Down by Monalee but went off the same price as Jury Duty and shorter than Moulin A Vent (so clearly wasn't unfancied).
 
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Kevloaf said:
I think Kevloaf did :p :devilish:

Impulsive Star...

LAst run 19th Nov, 3/4 in an alright race... over 2m7f

Led after 2nd, hit 5th, reminders after 8th, headed 10th, soon shaken up, led after 12th, headed 5 out, soon ridden, held when hit 3 out, stayed on same pace from next, hit last (op 5/2 tchd 9/4)

Reads like he needs at least 4 miles :highly_amused:
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Ah well done Kev. :encouragement:

He went off fav in the Pertemps last year as well. Must be a fancied stayer!
 
So what do people about No Comment after todays run, beaten out of sight but had a good run, so is it 4 miles in this or a good Handicap mark for another?

I really like the horse, he is only 7 but not sure about him for this??
 
Sirbetalot said:
So what do people about No Comment after todays run, beaten out of sight but had a good run, so is it 4 miles in this or a good Handicap mark for another?

I really like the horse, he is only 7 but not sure about him for this??
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It seems strange that JP only has No Comment entered for this. He ran ok today over a trip that was too short but you wouldn't be rushing to back him after that. If this is the target for him, they'll need to get another run under his belt, and quick.
 
Pretty happy with that run to be honest from No Comment. Given the circumstances - chase debut, in a grade 1, over a shorter than ideal trip. No issues with his jumping (apparently stumbled 2 out but camera had gone to the leaders by then).

The Reynoldstown at Ascot could come into play in 2 weeks time if they are willing to run him that quickly, which you think they would have too? Has been used as a stepping point for this race the last few years:

2017 - BigBadJohn, Flintham and Arpege D'Alene all ran in the Ascot race and then ran in the 4 miler
2016 - Minella Rocco ran there and then onto the 4 miler (where he won)

Would look the obvious race? Would then give them 3 and a bit weeks to get him ready for the festival
 
jono said:
Pretty happy with that run to be honest from No Comment. Given the circumstances - chase debut, in a grade 1, over a shorter than ideal trip. No issues with his jumping (apparently stumbled 2 out but camera had gone to the leaders by then).

The Reynoldstown at Ascot could come into play in 2 weeks time if they are willing to run him that quickly, which you think they would have too? Has been used as a stepping point for this race the last few years:

2017 - BigBadJohn, Flintham and Arpege D'Alene all ran in the Ascot race and then ran in the 4 miler
2016 - Minella Rocco ran there and then onto the 4 miler (where he won)

Would look the obvious race? Would then give them 3 and a bit weeks to get him ready for the festival
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The Reynoldstown would make sense Jono. :encouragement:
 
Not many trials left if any , so for me its a three horse race ,Mall Dini , Elegant Escape @ Fagin.
 
Apparently Ruby confirmed Rathvinden is going for this race on RTE today. I believe that was said just before the Flogas.

Whether having now Fallen and then been Brought Down in his last 2 runs they change that plan or not (i.e skip the festival) but I imagine if he's ok it won't have changed.
 
jono said:
Apparently Ruby confirmed Rathvinden is going for this race on RTE today. I believe that was said just before the Flogas.

Whether having now Fallen and then been Brought Down in his last 2 runs they change that plan or not (i.e skip the festival) but I imagine if he's ok it won't have changed.
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He did indeed Jono, also said Invitation Only was there best chance today in the flogas and there best staying novice chaser
 
SeanRock said:
He did indeed Jono, also said Invitation Only was there best chance today in the flogas and there best staying novice chaser
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I'd like that to be true. IO RSA ... Al Boum JLT ideal.

Was a good shout on the jockey booking. I like Rathvinden... interesting to see where he ranks in the ratings ...
 
Kevloaf said:
I'd like that to be true. IO RSA ... Al Boum JLT ideal.

Was a good shout on the jockey booking. I like Rathvinden... interesting to see where he ranks in the ratings ...
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Only worry id have with Rathvinden Kev is he's had a long season already having ran all summer in Ireland
 
SeanRock said:
Only worry id have with Rathvinden Kev is he's had a long season already having ran all summer in Ireland
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Yeah it's probably unusual but I don't mind a horse that's got experience.

I had a little bet at big odds for the JLT early in the season because I think he's got quite a lot of class.

Doesn't strike me as wanting an extreme test of stamina but can't know that until tested...
 
I'm surprised 16/1 is still available for Rathvinden considering they've confirmed him for the race?.... guarenteed top jockey on board... not many better than Patrick Mullins, multiple champion, and will be again this year...

Patrick Mullins' record:

2011 - 5th Some Target 6/1
2012 - Fell Allee Garde 6/1
2013 - 1st Back In Focus 9/4f
2014 - 3rd Sunteip 9/1
2015 - 4th Perfect Gentleman 10/1
2016 - PU Pont Alexandre 15/2
2017 - 3rd Haymount 33/1

Based on the SP's alone, he'll be starting shorter than 16/1 and his place record is decent enough?

Has a rating of 152 too, which is the same as Tiger Roll's OR when he won it last year (Edwulf was 159 PU - he didn't do too badly today!)

In context of the others ratings near the top of the market...
Presenting Percy (IM 157) Unlikely runner
Jury Duty (Irish Mark 148)
Elegant Escape 150
Monbeg Notorious (IM 150)
Fagan 147
Moulin A Vent (IM 146)
No Comment 145
Mall Dini (IM 143)

So with a guarenteed decent pilot, and at the moment, highest rating.... I'm going to add a bit more on.
 
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Kevloaf said:
I'm surprised 16/1 is still available for Rathvinden considering they've confirmed him for the race?.... guarenteed top jockey on board... not many better than Patrick Mullins, multiple champion, and will be again this year...

Patrick Mullins' record:

2011 - 5th Some Target 6/1
2012 - Fell Allee Garde 6/1
2013 - 1st Back In Focus 9/4f
2014 - 3rd Sunteip 9/1
2015 - 4th Perfect Gentleman 10/1
2016 - PU Pont Alexandre 15/2
2017 - 3rd Haymount 33/1

Based on the SP's alone, he'll be starting shorter than 16/1 and his place record is decent enough?

Has a rating of 152 too, which is the same as Tiger Roll's OR when he won it last year (Edwulf was 159 PU - he didn't do too badly today!)

In context of the others ratings near the top of the market...
Presenting Percy (IM 157) Unlikely runner
Jury Duty (Irish Mark 148)
Elegant Escape 150
Monbeg Notorious (IM 150)
Fagan 147
Moulin A Vent (IM 146)
No Comment 145
Mall Dini (IM 143)

So with a guarenteed decent pilot, and at the moment, highest rating.... I'm going to add a bit more on.
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One I haven't included yet, but think I am going to have to.

The case is very strong, and he is nothing but consistent, when he actually completes his races, being brought down can happen to any horse, so his only blemish was yesterdays fall, which I think I can forgive him for, given he won't be needing to jump his fences at the pace of a 2m 5f race for this one, and he could potentially take them with more care, whether he will or won't is another thing, but from memory I don't recall his jumping to be terrible generally.
 
BetVictor are 25/1 which I think is worth the risk if target is confirmed
 
jono said:
Could very well have the highest OR in the race based on where others will go and that's been a massive plus in the race

Presenting Percy (157) - RSA
Invitation Only (153) - RSA / JLT
Black Corton (155) - RSA
Rathvinden (152)
Elegant Escape (150)
...

Highest OR, Patrick Mullins onboard...I like it
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I met Willie Mullins in Listowel back in September and asked him to give us one for Cheltenham, Rathvinden won the same day very well and Willie said him for the 4 miler. We are on at 33s.
 
NO COMMENT on Saturday did interest me. He ran well after being out for so long and is JP's only entry in the 4m NH Chase.
Very interesting.
 
Folski said:
I met Willie Mullins in Listowel back in September and asked him to give us one for Cheltenham, Rathvinden won the same day very well and Willie said him for the 4 miler. We are on at 33s.
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Shame you only joined in January :highly_amused:
 
Folski said:
I met Willie Mullins in Listowel back in September and asked him to give us one for Cheltenham, Rathvinden won the same day very well and Willie said him for the 4 miler. We are on at 33s.
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I do not think 10yr olds have a good record for this race.. that would put me off..
 
Sirbetalot said:
I do not think 10yr olds have a good record for this race.. that would put me off..
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Just 2 winners since 1980.
It is a race for novices so if you are still winless at 9 then you have either had a number of problems or you're not very good, hence the poor record for 10yo and above.
Enough to put me off too...
 
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