Vautour
Fat Jockey Patron
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I have 5 points at 4s and 8s with Might Bite already completing the first leg at 5s - 1350 points return.
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I have 5 points at 4s and 8s with Might Bite already completing the first leg at 5s - 1350 points return.
Garrison Savannah
Fat Jockey Patron
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I also have 1 pt on that double at 4s and 9s. I don’t like mentioning my nice (sounding) ones without mentioning a crap one (me superstitious?!) so I’ll just add that I also have 1 pt doubles on both CoC & BD with Fayonagh 
Wasn’t there a good/mug bet thread last year? Have plenty to put in there!
Wasn’t there a good/mug bet thread last year? Have plenty to put in there!
ryanh97
Best Tipster Winner 2021 (and IT Guru) and Patron
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jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
I take this as a personal triumph that I have worn you down in 12 months on here :highly_amused:
7 horses? :highly_amused: (I've got 8 haha!)
Looking at those 7, you'll be in an incredibly strong position on the day, so how do you feel personally about it now, I know you know I have a little dilema somtimes with "not having an opinion" or "Not backing an opinion".... ?
I actually feel very good about it, certainly more so than I would have last season. I think early on with antepost I had the misconception that I had to have the one bet and come down on the one fancy in a race, otherwise it wouldn't quite feel like I've picked the winner, which was also at a point where it was all about finding the winner rather than finding the value. Going back to the first few festivals it was even a case where by I would look at it from a tally of winners for the week - aiming for 8 (/27) winners in the week almost not even factoring in the profit and that fact I could have say 4 winners and still have less profit than 1 big priced winner. Which is madness now when I think about it!
You made great success last year utilising the NRNB on the the likes of Sizing John as an example in the Gold Cup. Where bar tying up cash, there was little risk compared to the reward. So that stuck with me and I've made a point of trying that more so this year I.e No Comment in this race. Plus the fact 6/7 in the race are also EW unlike previous I.e my supreme bets in 16/17 were all 4 win only which means I know potentially 3/7 could all give a return. This race specifically as well, so much comes down to the jockey so although I try and think and take onboard who the likely jockey will be, it's often not straight forward and in this race compared to the vast majority of others, that could be the difference between fancying a horse I've backed even more so or not at all. Moulin a Vent for example I would give very very little chance if s top jockey doesn't ride him.
I certainly will still come down on a final opinion in this race and all races by the time the race starts but my approach and feeling about more bets in a race has certainly relaxed and is something I'm happier with doing. It also though depends on how the market of a race develops through the season. The Stayers hurdle for example, I was very happy to side with Nichols Canyon as my main fancy literally after last years festival and I hadn't actually had another bet in the race until his fatal injury. And I may well have only backed him in the race by March but what happened then meant I backed Supasundae (any race but this in mind), La Bague au Roi and The Worlds End and Finians Oscar all at different points. And Bacardys may end up here again as an any race bet but more unlikely now. So much can change throughout the winter and March that siding with 1 bet and 1 pick is very very tough. Certainly if you want to get the bigger and better prices, you generally have to take more risks and accept backing more horses as now the true or correct price is often gone after a maiden hurdle or beginners chase, sometimes even before that
On the entertainment / profit / breaking even debate...my brief take is similar to some already. Due to the period of time my bets are placed, come March it generally doesn't feel like I'll have spent the amount I have , because the money will be long gone. So worst case I lose it all, I'll be gutted but it's been spread out over time which minimises the impact. Certainly nothing like if say for example I took the same amount and out it on a single bet that week. The feeling between the 2 even though the outcome is the same (losing) would be massively different. The plus point to that as well is that any winnings then feel like profit during the festival week, regardless if they are still just getting closer towards breaking even then above.
I don't think there's anything wrong with setting breaking even as the minimum ideal aim. This is a hobby and I get so much enjoyment out of it that even coming out at a loss overalls, I'd except that, if however year and year that continued I'd have to think about it and at least change my approach or strategy. The aim for me of course is to enjoy (which is a given) and win big. The second is the hard part though so breaking even, especially after my first point on any winnings actually 'feeling like profit' is I think a reasonable aim. The sport and entertainment come first for me absolutely, I don't bet on any other sport despite watching and liking them, bit of poker and casinos now and again but that's it, it's 99% jumps racing. I have little interest in flat racing, and for that reason I won't bet, as the interest and passion isn't there for me. The dream and the lure of winning big is the incentive but for me it's all about the journey and months and months on here and excitement rather than the betting itself.
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
BigChaang
Sha Tin Expert and FJ Patron
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Anyone want cheering up , - L 31 - 1- b. d'air ch hdl - 9-2
2 - footpad arkle - 6-1
3 - apples j. m. hdle - 3-1
4 - c . of c x ctry - 6-1
5 - samcro b/more - 5-1 .
please god , they all turn up safe. !
2 - footpad arkle - 6-1
3 - apples j. m. hdle - 3-1
4 - c . of c x ctry - 6-1
5 - samcro b/more - 5-1 .
please god , they all turn up safe. !
Just considering an each way multiple on horses that are UNLIKELY to run in certain races but if they did WOULD BE SHORTER
Shortlist of say....I was thinking...
Benie Des Dieux (WITHOUT Apple's Jade) at 9/2 ..... theory that she'd only run if anything happened to Let's Dance?
Presenting Percy 4 miler 9/2 - Has so much in hand on ratings and already won over 3m5 which is further than any rival could boast...
Douvan CC 9/2 No chance at all that Douvan would start at 9/2 ... we know he'll only run if 100%, and 100% Douvan isn't 9/2 for this...
Salsaretta 11/2 Mares Novice HUrdle If anything happened to Laurina, would she 'sub-in'? Unlikely to run but that'd be okay?
DDG or ND 14/1 Supreme? Both would go off shorter...especially if anything happened to Getabird?
Un De Sceaux 9/1 NRNB CC Would only run if heavy ground (probably one to consider in a NRNB heavy ground multiple?)
Anyone done anything like this before?
1000/1+ with 365 BOG NRNB for Benie, Percy, Douvan, Salsaretta.... likely to just get your money back, but each way I'd expect every signle one of them to land?
Seems risk free though..... just a bit 'time-consuming' and ultimately just might be tying your own money up?
Anyone other suggestions?
Shortlist of say....I was thinking...
Benie Des Dieux (WITHOUT Apple's Jade) at 9/2 ..... theory that she'd only run if anything happened to Let's Dance?
Presenting Percy 4 miler 9/2 - Has so much in hand on ratings and already won over 3m5 which is further than any rival could boast...
Douvan CC 9/2 No chance at all that Douvan would start at 9/2 ... we know he'll only run if 100%, and 100% Douvan isn't 9/2 for this...
Salsaretta 11/2 Mares Novice HUrdle If anything happened to Laurina, would she 'sub-in'? Unlikely to run but that'd be okay?
DDG or ND 14/1 Supreme? Both would go off shorter...especially if anything happened to Getabird?
Un De Sceaux 9/1 NRNB CC Would only run if heavy ground (probably one to consider in a NRNB heavy ground multiple?)
Anyone done anything like this before?
1000/1+ with 365 BOG NRNB for Benie, Percy, Douvan, Salsaretta.... likely to just get your money back, but each way I'd expect every signle one of them to land?
Seems risk free though..... just a bit 'time-consuming' and ultimately just might be tying your own money up?
Anyone other suggestions?
BigChaang
Sha Tin Expert and FJ Patron
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I have Done something like that Kev ,
No N.R.N.B. , but L.15. 1- Getabird b/more .10-1
2 -Footpad j.l.t. . 8-1
3- apples j styrs .10-1
4 - next dest a/b . 6-1.
Just a back up really , don't expect them to go there , but thought it worth laying out £ 4-50 for the risk.
No N.R.N.B. , but L.15. 1- Getabird b/more .10-1
2 -Footpad j.l.t. . 8-1
3- apples j styrs .10-1
4 - next dest a/b . 6-1.
Just a back up really , don't expect them to go there , but thought it worth laying out £ 4-50 for the risk.
One for the nrnb heavy ground multiple would be first flow in the supreme imo. If it was somehow heavy they'd have to give samcro serious consideration too.
Fully expect the usual gd to soft but Interesting aspect that id never put much thought into all the same
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Was this with 365 BC? Just wondering what the cash out would or looks like right now!
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
I was only looking at First Flow last night too. Seems progressive, and has won very well the last twice. 25/1 NRNB seems fair.
The right directions of the horse as in form?
Or thoughts on target?
To be fair you can probably work it out yourself he's in at the weekend so no real secrets there now.
The owners are very open and friendly on Twitter. But not sure how they feel about other people giving stuff away
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Do you think he'll end up in the brown advisory. To me he looks a stayer, and that race was run at a frantic pace last year with road to respect winning. Could see him perfectly suited for that race. I'd say he'll end up there if his marks low enough. That or the novice handicap but if people are saying his mark will be too high, then presume it'll be here