Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

[Scooby91]

You not restricted by Sportsbook ?
You are in an elite group there Scooby, they want everyone on the exchange so have been restricting punters for a long time, and that strategy has been extended to Paddy Power who have gone from being a respected bookmaker to a joke/gimmick outfit

Hardly at all. I get the odd red message that gives me max stake but it's always to win around 1000. Iv no idea why, and it tells me in plane site the ammount iv put in and out altogether. My mrs is 0.00 won't even take a penny on her account. And she bets small on some multiples for weekend racing. Complete mystery to me.

 

[kinloch brae]

I must admit if I was betting to break even I just wouldn't bother. The challenge as I see it is to win. That challenge can be enjoyable but it can be very frustrating at times. The sport itself provides the entertainment.

I am relatively new here but reading Kev's posts I am struggling to see those in the light of someone who is just happy to break even. In fact as I see it many of the posters on here are so well clued up I can't believe any of them are happy just to break even.

 

[Kevloaf]

I must admit if I was betting to break even I just wouldn't bother. The challenge as I see it is to win. That challenge can be enjoyable but it can be very frustrating at times. The sport itself provides the entertainment.

I am relatively new here but reading Kev's posts I am struggling to see those in the light of someone who is just happy to break even. In fact as I see it many of the posters on here are so well clued up I can't believe any of them are happy just to break even.

I didn't say I am trying to break even. I said I'd be happy if I did.

I actually think it is very dangerous to gamble if you only want to make profit and get no enjoyment from it. I think you NEED to enjoy it, otherwise you could find youreself betting on all kinds of things and that'd be negative in the long run.

I will take the back handed compliment that I might be clued up though, as I've never had a festival where I haven't made profit, and I know plenty did, just looking back at the thread where people reflected on last year.

This post sounds loads more aggresive than its meant so don't take it that way as I don't mean it that way

 

[TimRiggins]

I only punt any money I get back from Cheltenham on my summer hols anyway, so it's all just entertainment to me.

I'm definitely not anywhere near as clued up as 99% of the people on here, and that is probably being kind to me :highly_amused:

 

[kinloch brae]

I didn't say I am trying to break even. I said I'd be happy if I did.

I actually think it is very dangerous to gamble if you only want to make profit and get no enjoyment from it. I think you NEED to enjoy it, otherwise you could find youreself betting on all kinds of things and that'd be negative in the long run.

I will take the back handed compliment that I might be clued up though, as I've never had a festival where I haven't made profit, and I know plenty did, just looking back at the thread where people reflected on last year.

This post sounds loads more aggresive than its meant so don't take it that way as I don't mean it that way

I'll draw stumps because I was confused by the last post and even more confused by this one.

 

[jono]

I know there are various ways to skin a cat but are there any others who just try and back one horse per race?

I only ask the question because it seems as if anytime a horse wins there's about five people who have already got a 20/1+ bet on it?

Before this season I was very much a one horse, maybe two horses backed per race. I only had 41 bets in total for that season antepost - I would then bet on the day in the other races or races where the antepost had fallen by the wayside and either no longer in play or just completely unfancied , always having a bet in each race. I had never really considered backing multiple horses in the same race too often, certainly not before coming onto the forum. There were only 2 races last season where I had a few in:

Supreme = -2.5pts down
Lough Derg Spirit 0.5pts
Jenkins 1pt
Crack Mome 0.5pts
Neon Wolf NRNB 0.5pts
Melon (only in a 'to place' multiple)

National Hunt Chase = +11.5pts
Champers on Ice 0.5pts
Edwulf 0.5pts
Tiger Roll 0.5pts

And they as you can see produced mixed results. It's also worth noting that that season and previous I rarely if ever did EW bets - not liking the fact if the bet went down, it would be twice the blow.I did 3 ew bets in the 41 bets that season.

So far this season i've certainly changed my approach a fair bit. Without going into too much detail and boring you i've backed the following amount of horses in each race...

Supreme = 4 horses
Arkle = 4 horses + Footpad in multis
Ultima = 1 so far
CH = 2 horses (1 cash out)
Mares = 2 horses + Apples in multis, 1 non runner (De Bon Coeur)
NHC = 7 horses
Novice Chase = 0 so far

Ballymore = 1 horse
Coral Cup = 0 so far
RSA = 4 so far
Champion Chase = 2 in multis
Cross Country = 1 horse
FW = 0 so far
Bumper = 3 horses

JLT = 4 horses
Pertemps = 1 horse
Ryanair = 1 horse + 2 likely any race
Stayers = 6 horses
Plate = 2 horses
Mares Novice = 5 horses
KM = 0 so far

Triumph = 2 horses
County = 0 so far
AB = 2 horses + cracking smart in multi
GC = 2 horses + might bite in multis
Foxhunter = 0 so far
MP = 0 so far
GA = 0 so far

The handicaps i'll likely have 2 or 3 in each. I'm still a long way off making a book in a race. I do still try and limit myself to my bets in each race, but i'm a lot more open to multiple bets in a race now. Funnily enough the 4 miler has again been the biggest race for me in terms of runners. It actually is one of my favourite races to tackle each year with antepost. Just going into detail on that race so far I have:

Elegant Escape 55/1 EW (boost) 1pt (0.5ew)
Mall Dini 25/1 EW 1pt (0.5ew)
Impulsive Star 50/1 EW 1pt (0.5ew)
Jury Duty 13/1 1pt
Moulin a Vent 20/1 EW 1pt (0.5ew)
Rathvinden 25/1 EW 1.5pt (0.75ew)
No Comment 25/1 EW 2pts (1ew)

8.5pts staked

There's been many horses already this year where although i've liked them at some point in the season, whether myself or flagged up by others on here, i've held off. Sometimes that has worked out well but others I have obviously missed prices on. 35 of these bets have also been placed each way which is a massive turn around for me. I have deliberately tried more of this this year as looking back over previous festivals, i've missed out on some good place prices having just gone for the win part and had plenty of 2nds and 3rds.

So far I feel like i'm in a really good position - never better actually. That may change and it's one thing going to the festival with plenty in favour and a lot of horses at bigger odds but they obviously have to come good.

So yes I would say before this season that was me (to actually answer your question :highly_amused, where as this year I have changed my approach somewhat. I've actually been quite lucky so far in that a lot of my bets are still in play. Finian's Oscar (Arkle mainly and Stayers but a write off anywhere really), Death Duty and Fayonagh are the 3 major horses that I had backed more than once who have backfired.

 

[TimRiggins]

Think Kev was just saying that if he doesn't lose, anything else is a bonus.

Everyone wants to win, but it's not the be all end all. Well, not for all of us, anyway.

The strip clubs and steakhouses in the states will be hoping I do well at Cheltenham, because that's where any money I win will end up :very_drunk:

 

[Scooby91]

Before this season I was very much a one horse, maybe two horses backed per race. I only had 41 bets in total for that season antepost - I would then bet on the day in the other races or races where the antepost had fallen by the wayside and either no longer in play or just completely unfancied , always having a bet in each race. I had never really considered backing multiple horses in the same race too often, certainly not before coming onto the forum. There were only 2 races last season where I had a few in:

Supreme = -2.5pts down
Lough Derg Spirit 0.5pts
Jenkins 1pt
Crack Mome 0.5pts
Neon Wolf NRNB 0.5pts
Melon (only in a 'to place' multiple)

National Hunt Chase = +11.5pts
Champers on Ice 0.5pts
Edwulf 0.5pts
Tiger Roll 0.5pts

And they as you can see produced mixed results. It's also worth noting that that season and previous I rarely if ever did EW bets - not liking the fact if the bet went down, it would be twice the blow.I did 3 ew bets in the 41 bets that season.

So far this season i've certainly changed my approach a fair bit. Without going into too much detail and boring you i've backed the following amount of horses in each race...

Supreme = 4 horses
Arkle = 4 horses + Footpad in multis
Ultima = 1 so far
CH = 2 horses (1 cash out)
Mares = 2 horses + Apples in multis, 1 non runner (De Bon Coeur)
NHC = 7 horses
Novice Chase = 0 so far

Ballymore = 1 horse
Coral Cup = 0 so far
RSA = 4 so far
Champion Chase = 2 in multis
Cross Country = 1 horse
FW = 0 so far
Bumper = 3 horses

JLT = 4 horses
Pertemps = 1 horse
Ryanair = 1 horse + 2 likely any race
Stayers = 6 horses
Plate = 2 horses
Mares Novice = 5 horses
KM = 0 so far

Triumph = 2 horses
County = 0 so far
AB = 2 horses + cracking smart in multi
GC = 2 horses + might bite in multis
Foxhunter = 0 so far
MP = 0 so far
GA = 0 so far

The handicaps i'll likely have 2 or 3 in each. I'm still a long way off making a book in a race. I do still try and limit myself to my bets in each race, but i'm a lot more open to multiple bets in a race now. Funnily enough the 4 miler has again been the biggest race for me in terms of runners. It actually is one of my favourite races to tackle each year with antepost. Just going into detail on that race so far I have:

Elegant Escape 55/1 EW (boost) 1pt (0.5ew)
Mall Dini 25/1 EW 1pt (0.5ew)
Impulsive Star 50/1 EW 1pt (0.5ew)
Jury Duty 13/1 1pt
Moulin a Vent 20/1 EW 1pt (0.5ew)
Rathvinden 25/1 EW 1.5pt (0.75ew)
No Comment 25/1 EW 2pts (1ew)

8.5pts staked

There's been many horses already this year where although i've liked them at some point in the season, whether myself or flagged up by others on here, i've held off. Sometimes that has worked out well but others I have obviously missed prices on. 35 of these bets have also been placed each way which is a massive turn around for me. I have deliberately tried more of this this year as looking back over previous festivals, i've missed out on some good place prices having just gone for the win part and had plenty of 2nds and 3rds.

So far I feel like i'm in a really good position - never better actually. That may change and it's one thing going to the festival with plenty in favour and a lot of horses at bigger odds but they obviously have to come good.

So yes I would say before this season that was me (to actually answer your question :highly_amused, where as this year I have changed my approach somewhat. I've actually been quite lucky so far in that a lot of my bets are still in play. Finian's Oscar (Arkle mainly and Stayers but a write off anywhere really), Death Duty and Fayonagh are the 3 major horses that I had backed more than once who have backfired.

Interesting.
Strangely I'm the opposite. I can have plenty in the graded races but normally only back ONE in the handicaps and 0 in a few. I might back a couple nrnb but usually only end up with 1 or max 2 And smaller stakes
The fred winter will be my exception this year.

 

[Kevloaf]

Elegant Escape 55/1 EW (boost) 1pt (0.5ew)
Mall Dini 25/1 EW 1pt (0.5ew)
Impulsive Star 50/1 EW 1pt (0.5ew)
Jury Duty 13/1 1pt
Moulin a Vent 20/1 EW 1pt (0.5ew)
Rathvinden 25/1 EW 1.5pt (0.75ew)
No Comment 25/1 EW 2pts (1ew)

8.5pts staked


So far I feel like i'm in a really good position - never better actually. That may change and it's one thing going to the festival with plenty in favour and a lot of horses at bigger odds but they obviously have to come good.

I take this as a personal triumph that I have worn you down in 12 months on here :highly_amused:

7 horses? :highly_amused: (I've got 8 haha!)

Looking at those 7, you'll be in an incredibly strong position on the day, so how do you feel personally about it now, I know you know I have a little dilema somtimes with "not having an opinion" or "Not backing an opinion".... ?

 

[kinloch brae]

Before this season I was very much a one horse, maybe two horses backed per race. I only had 41 bets in total for that season antepost - I would then bet on the day in the other races or races where the antepost had fallen by the wayside and either no longer in play or just completely unfancied , always having a bet in each race. I had never really considered backing multiple horses in the same race too often, certainly not before coming onto the forum. There were only 2 races last season where I had a few in:

Supreme = -2.5pts down
Lough Derg Spirit 0.5pts
Jenkins 1pt
Crack Mome 0.5pts
Neon Wolf NRNB 0.5pts
Melon (only in a 'to place' multiple)

National Hunt Chase = +11.5pts
Champers on Ice 0.5pts
Edwulf 0.5pts
Tiger Roll 0.5pts

And they as you can see produced mixed results. It's also worth noting that that season and previous I rarely if ever did EW bets - not liking the fact if the bet went down, it would be twice the blow.I did 3 ew bets in the 41 bets that season.

So far this season i've certainly changed my approach a fair bit. Without going into too much detail and boring you i've backed the following amount of horses in each race...

Supreme = 4 horses
Arkle = 4 horses + Footpad in multis
Ultima = 1 so far
CH = 2 horses (1 cash out)
Mares = 2 horses + Apples in multis, 1 non runner (De Bon Coeur)
NHC = 7 horses
Novice Chase = 0 so far

Ballymore = 1 horse
Coral Cup = 0 so far
RSA = 4 so far
Champion Chase = 2 in multis
Cross Country = 1 horse
FW = 0 so far
Bumper = 3 horses

JLT = 4 horses
Pertemps = 1 horse
Ryanair = 1 horse + 2 likely any race
Stayers = 6 horses
Plate = 2 horses
Mares Novice = 5 horses
KM = 0 so far

Triumph = 2 horses
County = 0 so far
AB = 2 horses + cracking smart in multi
GC = 2 horses + might bite in multis
Foxhunter = 0 so far
MP = 0 so far
GA = 0 so far

The handicaps i'll likely have 2 or 3 in each. I'm still a long way off making a book in a race. I do still try and limit myself to my bets in each race, but i'm a lot more open to multiple bets in a race now. Funnily enough the 4 miler has again been the biggest race for me in terms of runners. It actually is one of my favourite races to tackle each year with antepost. Just going into detail on that race so far I have:

Elegant Escape 55/1 EW (boost) 1pt (0.5ew)
Mall Dini 25/1 EW 1pt (0.5ew)
Impulsive Star 50/1 EW 1pt (0.5ew)
Jury Duty 13/1 1pt
Moulin a Vent 20/1 EW 1pt (0.5ew)
Rathvinden 25/1 EW 1.5pt (0.75ew)
No Comment 25/1 EW 2pts (1ew)

8.5pts staked

There's been many horses already this year where although i've liked them at some point in the season, whether myself or flagged up by others on here, i've held off. Sometimes that has worked out well but others I have obviously missed prices on. 35 of these bets have also been placed each way which is a massive turn around for me. I have deliberately tried more of this this year as looking back over previous festivals, i've missed out on some good place prices having just gone for the win part and had plenty of 2nds and 3rds.

So far I feel like i'm in a really good position - never better actually. That may change and it's one thing going to the festival with plenty in favour and a lot of horses at bigger odds but they obviously have to come good.

So yes I would say before this season that was me (to actually answer your question :highly_amused, where as this year I have changed my approach somewhat. I've actually been quite lucky so far in that a lot of my bets are still in play. Finian's Oscar (Arkle mainly and Stayers but a write off anywhere really), Death Duty and Fayonagh are the 3 major horses that I had backed more than once who have backfired.

Thanks for the detail.

Your opening paragraph pretty much sums up my present position. I just checked back my records since 2007 and I have made a profit every year with the exception of 2014. Interestingly, in that year I had more bets per race and the loss was despite having four winners, including a couple of double figure ones in More Of That and Spring Heeled.

Just to make a general point in my experience it is the people who don't take their gambling seriously who are likely to bet on two flies running up the wall and consequently most likely to end up in trouble.

 

[TimRiggins]

I don't take horse racing all that seriously, because it's entertainment for me.

Casinos, however, are completely different. They pay for my gambling

Degens, will be degens.

 

[Kevloaf]

I don't take horse racing all that seriously, because it's entertainment for me.

Casinos, however, are completely different. They pay for my gambling

Degens, will be degens.

Haha I wouldn't place more than 10 pts in a casino.... and that'd be the last few moments, I'd just go double or quits on roulette:highly_amused:

 

[Kevloaf]

EW Lucky 15 - Giggi giggi

Petit Mouchoir
Tiger Roll
Cracking Smart
Road to Respect

I would be incredibly hopeful of the first 3 placing.... placing at best though :highly_amused:

I haven't backed this... just playing around. Someone might like it though

 

[Scooby91]

EW Lucky 15 - Giggi giggi

Petit Mouchoir
Tiger Roll
Cracking Smart
Road to Respect

I would be incredibly hopeful of the first 3 placing.... placing at best though :highly_amused:

I haven't backed this... just playing around. Someone might like it though

I added road to respect ew gold cup yesterday.
I like his performances the way he stays on and fights and the fact he's going in fresh. I don't like backing one that was a lot bigger but as part of my book on the race i can allow it

 

[Hurricane fly]

Had a decent win on the Super Bowl, so I’ve placed a 6fold(also the 4and 5 folds) of what I consider the bankers

Supersundae - 3/1
Laurina - 7/4
Getabird - 5/2
Apples Jade - 8/13
Samcro - 8/11
Cause of Causes - 11/4

6 fold pays around 430/1


I’d like to think I’m done with antepost now unless any promos take my fancy



Edit: before anyone says it, I just don’t rate rate Buv, I can’t put my finger on it but I never have, definitely heart over head. I’ve also not been that impressed with his runs this year.

 

[TimRiggins]

Haha I wouldn't place more than 10 pts in a casino.... and that'd be the last few moments, I'd just go double or quits on roulette:highly_amused:

I spend way more than 10pts at the bar, but don't really do any gambling myself :very_drunk:

 

[Kevloaf]

365 have increased their cash out offer from 39 pts to 57 pts now for the Lucky 15 on

Samcro
Cause of Causes
Stay Humble
Apple's Shakira

:highly_amused:

 

[ryanh97]

365 have increased their cash out offer from 39 pts to 57 pts now for the Lucky 15 on

Samcro
Cause of Causes
Stay Humble
Apple's Shakira

:highly_amused:

How much do you win if the shorter 3 go in?

 

[Kevloaf]

How much do you win if the shorter 3 go in?

455 pts for Samcro COC Shakira

I am not doing anything until last week in Feb... other than waiting for some Stay Humble news... incredibly unlikely he runs at Cheltenham though now, with two very strong contenders already from the stable

 

[ryanh97]

455 pts for Samcro COC Shakira

I am not doing anything until last week in Feb... other than waiting for some Stay Humble news... incredibly unlikely he runs at Cheltenham though now, with two very strong contenders already from the stable

Even without Stay humble you have to be quietly confident of the other 3. Will go a long way to that break even youd be happy with