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Supreme Novices 2018
- Thread starter jono
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billymag
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I think its worth noting, with regard to Getabird, Willies comments after the race, he said that they hadnt been able to get stuck into Getabird and I wonder if they are expecting heaps of improvement. He mentioned his legs werent the best and they had been very cautious with him, if they can keep him sound then on the back of those comments and the money thats come for him, I cant really see him going for another race (and if Samcro wins impressively next week, I stand by my comments earlier that they wont want to run their best against him.)
Interesting that Samcro is coming in for support for the Deloitte next week and on the drift for the 2 1/2 mile race
Muddies the waters a bit
Will get those on Samcro at big prices for the ballymore a bit worried
Muddies the waters a bit
Will get those on Samcro at big prices for the ballymore a bit worried
Faugheen_Machine
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@Ui_Maine: Samcro will work Tuesday and then all systems go for Leopardstown. Get then feeling the camp's a bit split on what race to go for.
Opens up the possibility for the Supreme again but it could just be a case of them not wanting to run him over 2m6 this close to the festival perhaps? Step him back up to 2m4 for the Ballymore after on the slight concern the longer trip could leave a mark?
Yesterday Ricci seemed to indicate Getabird would be running next weekend at Leopardstown. I was under the impression that wasn't the case? With Sharjah (and Real Steel) in the Deloitte it would have to be in the 2m6 race?
For anyone who was impressed with Getabird and is worried about Samcro going Supreme you could look at a 47/1 NRNB double with Bet365 of Samcro, Supreme and Getabird, Ballymore?
Yesterday Ricci seemed to indicate Getabird would be running next weekend at Leopardstown. I was under the impression that wasn't the case? With Sharjah (and Real Steel) in the Deloitte it would have to be in the 2m6 race?
For anyone who was impressed with Getabird and is worried about Samcro going Supreme you could look at a 47/1 NRNB double with Bet365 of Samcro, Supreme and Getabird, Ballymore?
Faugheen_Machine
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I'm not bothered which race Samcro runs in at Leopardstown, as long as he runs. If he misses another prep race I'd be concerned.
I'd agree with that FM.
There isn't a race at Leopardstown next weekend that is the same as the Ballymore trip..... so by the same logic as saying if he wins the Deloitte over 2m2f he must be considered for the Supreme, you could easily say if he wins over 2m6f going away he must be considered now for the Albert Bartlett .... I can't imagine anyone saying the latter, but it is similar to the former.... he'd have to drop back 2f to 2m in the Supreme, or go up 3f to the 2m5f Ballymore trip.... but has already won this season over 2m4f is sft/hvy and wasn't stopping so - I think people could be reading too much in to the trip next weekend....
I'd forgotten that!.... but doesn't change my opinion fortunately :highly_amused:
ComplyOrDie
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Doesn't surprise me one bit, made a case for Sharjah Supreme & Getabird the Ballymore, however can also see Getabird as a Supreme horse but can't have Sharjah as a Ballymore contender.
ComplyOrDie
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Having seen the quotes myself I do now believe Getabird will be his Supreme horse now. He NAP'd it for the festival, his last 2 NAPs (Let's Dance & Limini) both won their respective races, so not going to doubt him about that, but I can't now see how he would NAP a horse that would be up against Samcro & Next Destination, whereas the Supreme market is a lot weaker IMO!
I would take Riccis quotes re Getabird with a pinch of salt. What else can he nap? Sharjah, Faugheen, Min, Douvan, Lets Dance, Benie De Dieux? He is unsure about most of his horses this year including Getabird!
ComplyOrDie
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TBF he could choose any horse he owns if he wanted to, but it was more the feeling that he wouldn't put Getabird up as his NAP if he was going to run it in the stronger (IMO) of the 3 novice hurdle races (Ballymore), and didn't mention the AB, so for me the fact is he will now run in the Supreme, when before I had the belief he would run in the Ballymore.
archie
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There will be no decision until 11th March. People connected with all yards will be appearing at numerous preview nights and will make the appropriate noises but we can't even agree on Leopardstown targets so looking 5 weeks further on is ambitious in the extreme.
Does anyone have a fancy for the Supreme that isn't one of the "top 5" in the betting? I am thinking about this race at current prices rather than what I am on at... because the prices I am on at might have (or perhaps HAS) stopped me looking further down the list for a little while.... so trying to find negatives for....
Getabird (now best price 3/1) (NRNB best price 5/2)
Sharjah (best price avail 8/1) (NRNB best price 7/1)
Claimantakingforgan (best price avail 9/1) (NRNB best price 8/1)
If The Cap Fits (best price avail 10/1) (NRNB best price 8/1)
Mengli Khan (best price avail 16/1)(NRNB best price 10/1)
Without injury, I'd say 4 of those will turn up quite confidently, with Getabird and Sharjah likely to be split up..
Getabird - The only slight negatives I can see for Getabird are that he has never won left handed. He is unbeaten, so hasn't tried - but hasn't done it yet. A minor worry, as he hasn't shown that he jumps right or hands right or anything like that though. The other slight negative is also minor and it is that they surprised them and have been quoted as saying he is a staying-type. This is only minor, and could even be a positive, in that he has proven it not to be the case... but a slight concern might be that he didn't look a natural 2 miler. The final niggle is that he has been winning on Soft and Heavy ground. Similarly though to the 'right-handed' issue, he has not had to try. He did win on Good/Yielding on debut but against horses that've been thrashed since so he was a class above them. They are the only niggles I have and he is a worthy fav on his impressive Grade 2 Moscow Flyer win. All very very slight niggles but best to consider everything .... At Cheltenham, left handed, good ground... is he any value at 3/1? (5/2 NRNB) - The answer must be relative to the opposition of course, but as the UK formline is an unknown too, I'd say no.
Sharjah - Small Concern.... The ground.... Had 4 runs on the flat on good ground and only won 1 of them. Has had 3 runs for Mullins on Heavy, Heavy and soft, won 2 and Fell when about to win the other. Not conculsive as it is a different code, and I don't know the value of the French flat races he was getting beaten in BUT certainly food for thought regarding the ground. Unlikely we'll learn anything in the Deloitte either about that. Another slight concern would be that he fell last time, it might have knocked his confidence, although in terms of Cheltenham that theory will have been tested. If he completes at Leopardstown at the weekend, that will not be an issue anymore - if he falls, going in to any race on the back of 2 falls would put me right off. A third slight concern is the jockey booking last time. I probably under estimate Patrick Mullins' ability a little, but Townend would certainly have had the first choice and went for Real Steel. I'd have had a little guess that David Mullins and Patrick were probably told/I] which to ride but I do tend to think based on their home work Real Steel must have been showing more than Sharjah... Only a slight concern because it is of course the track where it matters, but it is a slight concern all the same for a single figure price horse. His form isn't bad, with Great Trango and Ten Ten who were in behind both winning since, and the 4th, 5th and 7th all winning or 2nd too since. The Deloitte will obviously need to be a step forward though and until he has that G1 form in the book, it has to be a consideration, as he fell in the Future Champions Novice.
Claimantakinforgan - Slight concern over his hurdles form, as there has only been 1 winner come out of his two hurdle wins. On debut he beat Lostintranslation who did win next time out, Lostintranslation beat Simply The Betts 7L but ITCF beat the same horse 14L and he also beat BLack Op, but Black Op needs further than 2m (half length behind Santini and a 17L victory in his next two starts over 2m4f) - which isn't bad but Lostintranslation was last of 6 in the Haydock Supreme trial which may be forgivable but doesn't boost Claimantakinforgans form. The 3rd on debut, Windshear has had 3 runs since, PU, 26L defeat and 96L defeat. The 4th, 5th haven't run, 6th has been beaten twice by a combined 44L, 7th been beaten, 8th beaten 55L, and 9th was beaten at 250/1 72L by lostintranslation. In his second run, Claimantakinforgan beat Dr Des, Theclockisticking, Slate House, Coeur Blimey, Mr One More which looked strong prior to the race. The 2nd, 3rd and 6th haven't run since, Slate House who was 4th stepped up in trip and was beaten by Santini 34L, the 5th (Coeur Blimey) stepped up to 2m5f and was 8L 6/16 behind William Henry in the Lanzarotte. The reason I'd like to have seen more winners coming out of those races, is that Claimantakinforgan was a little workmanlike after getting to the front, so it didn't look like he had LOADS in hand over the horses he's beaten. I like him, and because of Henderson's record I see him as a really obvious horse to finish 2nd or 3rd.
If The Cap Fits Harder to pick holes in his form than Claimantakinforgan IMO, he is officailly rated 1lb higher and has a RPR of 145 compared to 142 back that up. Collaterally too, he's beaten Simply The Betts further and he beat Diese Des Bieffes who finished ahead of Coeur Blimey, albeit over further. Nothing conclusive there obviously but I prefer ITCF the other. He's won on Good and Good to soft.... so my only doubts are that he hasn't been to Cheltenham yet, and he might not have a run this calender year. Both of those though are only small doubts, as only 6 of the last 26 winners were previous course winners (Gaultstats). I also think Harry Fry is an excellent target trainer so running on Boxing Day then going straight there wouldn't concern me. Other concern is that the Irish novice hurdlers might just be better than the UK ones. So ITCF might be a good thing to beat any of the UK challengers, and still not make the frame. (Not complaining of course, that is part of the puzzle!)
Mengli Khan Doubts are that he crashed out two starts ago through the side of a hurdle, after jumping out the wrong way twice at the two before that. He completed the next time but being bullish about a horse who has jumped through the wings of a hurdle is very hard to do. Other concern would be he was soundly beaten by a market rival in Getabird. (I've said on here I think he would get closer on better ground, but 9L is a long way to reverse the form) I do like that he has had a lot of runs(flat too) and won in big fields but going back, the main concern is he is held on form by Getabird.
I personally Do think the winner is in that list, which is quite unoriginal at this stage.... and the one I feel I'd be backing now is If The Cap Fits... I think he's a clear "best of the British" and should be 2nd fav. He's an each way price if it was the day of the race too, to take on the Fav. Struggling with any strong negatives about Getabird so I would probably back him win only too, or in a double with one of the other horses on the day (Footpad an incredibly obvious choice for that)
Anyway, that was a long way to go to get to the original question, Does anyone have a fancy that isn't in the top 5 in the betting so ....
Better add these others are quoted near the top of the market but aren't realistic IMO:
Espoir D'allen (8/1 - don't think he'd run and 8/1 isn't big enough for me if he did on what he's done)
Maria's Benefit (10/1 - Same as above really, even if she ran 10/1 isn't a good price)
Redicean (12/1 - Staggered he is quoted, wouldn't interest me at double the price here)
Samcro (Would go off fav here, but won't run here... Personally think 5/1 NRNB is a value bet if you want to tie up stake, but only 5% chance he runs here, even if winning the Deloitte)
Apple's Shakira (12/1 NRNB - no way she'd go off that big, but no way she comes here.... Triumph then Mares Novice before this race got considered....)
Of those, Samcro and Apple's Shakira would go off shorter, so can see an angle...
Summerville Boy - Turned the tables on Western Ryder and won the Tolworth, 25/1 best price and 16/1 NRNB (is this race the plan?)
Kalashnikov (Ballymore?) 20s NRNB not big enough on a horse that was beaten fairly by the horse above?
Next Destination (Ballymore?) Couldn't consider without NRNB but 14/1 is fair?
Western Ryder - 33s available, if you forgive the Tolworth perhaps?
Debuchet - (needs to come on loads for that first run?) 33/1 NRNB
Early Doors - possible? held by Mengli Khan though?
Winter Soldier (no runs yet this season)
Whiskey Sour (luckiest G1 winner in ages, must be well held)
Pym (no runs yet this season)
First Flow (won't be going to the festival according to trainer)
To sum up, I can't find anything of strong enough interest below the top 5 of the market to tempt me in to this race. Bar Debuchet potentially
Getabird (now best price 3/1) (NRNB best price 5/2)
Sharjah (best price avail 8/1) (NRNB best price 7/1)
Claimantakingforgan (best price avail 9/1) (NRNB best price 8/1)
If The Cap Fits (best price avail 10/1) (NRNB best price 8/1)
Mengli Khan (best price avail 16/1)(NRNB best price 10/1)
Without injury, I'd say 4 of those will turn up quite confidently, with Getabird and Sharjah likely to be split up..
Getabird - The only slight negatives I can see for Getabird are that he has never won left handed. He is unbeaten, so hasn't tried - but hasn't done it yet. A minor worry, as he hasn't shown that he jumps right or hands right or anything like that though. The other slight negative is also minor and it is that they surprised them and have been quoted as saying he is a staying-type. This is only minor, and could even be a positive, in that he has proven it not to be the case... but a slight concern might be that he didn't look a natural 2 miler. The final niggle is that he has been winning on Soft and Heavy ground. Similarly though to the 'right-handed' issue, he has not had to try. He did win on Good/Yielding on debut but against horses that've been thrashed since so he was a class above them. They are the only niggles I have and he is a worthy fav on his impressive Grade 2 Moscow Flyer win. All very very slight niggles but best to consider everything .... At Cheltenham, left handed, good ground... is he any value at 3/1? (5/2 NRNB) - The answer must be relative to the opposition of course, but as the UK formline is an unknown too, I'd say no.
Sharjah - Small Concern.... The ground.... Had 4 runs on the flat on good ground and only won 1 of them. Has had 3 runs for Mullins on Heavy, Heavy and soft, won 2 and Fell when about to win the other. Not conculsive as it is a different code, and I don't know the value of the French flat races he was getting beaten in BUT certainly food for thought regarding the ground. Unlikely we'll learn anything in the Deloitte either about that. Another slight concern would be that he fell last time, it might have knocked his confidence, although in terms of Cheltenham that theory will have been tested. If he completes at Leopardstown at the weekend, that will not be an issue anymore - if he falls, going in to any race on the back of 2 falls would put me right off. A third slight concern is the jockey booking last time. I probably under estimate Patrick Mullins' ability a little, but Townend would certainly have had the first choice and went for Real Steel. I'd have had a little guess that David Mullins and Patrick were probably told/I] which to ride but I do tend to think based on their home work Real Steel must have been showing more than Sharjah... Only a slight concern because it is of course the track where it matters, but it is a slight concern all the same for a single figure price horse. His form isn't bad, with Great Trango and Ten Ten who were in behind both winning since, and the 4th, 5th and 7th all winning or 2nd too since. The Deloitte will obviously need to be a step forward though and until he has that G1 form in the book, it has to be a consideration, as he fell in the Future Champions Novice.
Claimantakinforgan - Slight concern over his hurdles form, as there has only been 1 winner come out of his two hurdle wins. On debut he beat Lostintranslation who did win next time out, Lostintranslation beat Simply The Betts 7L but ITCF beat the same horse 14L and he also beat BLack Op, but Black Op needs further than 2m (half length behind Santini and a 17L victory in his next two starts over 2m4f) - which isn't bad but Lostintranslation was last of 6 in the Haydock Supreme trial which may be forgivable but doesn't boost Claimantakinforgans form. The 3rd on debut, Windshear has had 3 runs since, PU, 26L defeat and 96L defeat. The 4th, 5th haven't run, 6th has been beaten twice by a combined 44L, 7th been beaten, 8th beaten 55L, and 9th was beaten at 250/1 72L by lostintranslation. In his second run, Claimantakinforgan beat Dr Des, Theclockisticking, Slate House, Coeur Blimey, Mr One More which looked strong prior to the race. The 2nd, 3rd and 6th haven't run since, Slate House who was 4th stepped up in trip and was beaten by Santini 34L, the 5th (Coeur Blimey) stepped up to 2m5f and was 8L 6/16 behind William Henry in the Lanzarotte. The reason I'd like to have seen more winners coming out of those races, is that Claimantakinforgan was a little workmanlike after getting to the front, so it didn't look like he had LOADS in hand over the horses he's beaten. I like him, and because of Henderson's record I see him as a really obvious horse to finish 2nd or 3rd.
If The Cap Fits Harder to pick holes in his form than Claimantakinforgan IMO, he is officailly rated 1lb higher and has a RPR of 145 compared to 142 back that up. Collaterally too, he's beaten Simply The Betts further and he beat Diese Des Bieffes who finished ahead of Coeur Blimey, albeit over further. Nothing conclusive there obviously but I prefer ITCF the other. He's won on Good and Good to soft.... so my only doubts are that he hasn't been to Cheltenham yet, and he might not have a run this calender year. Both of those though are only small doubts, as only 6 of the last 26 winners were previous course winners (Gaultstats). I also think Harry Fry is an excellent target trainer so running on Boxing Day then going straight there wouldn't concern me. Other concern is that the Irish novice hurdlers might just be better than the UK ones. So ITCF might be a good thing to beat any of the UK challengers, and still not make the frame. (Not complaining of course, that is part of the puzzle!)
Mengli Khan Doubts are that he crashed out two starts ago through the side of a hurdle, after jumping out the wrong way twice at the two before that. He completed the next time but being bullish about a horse who has jumped through the wings of a hurdle is very hard to do. Other concern would be he was soundly beaten by a market rival in Getabird. (I've said on here I think he would get closer on better ground, but 9L is a long way to reverse the form) I do like that he has had a lot of runs(flat too) and won in big fields but going back, the main concern is he is held on form by Getabird.
I personally Do think the winner is in that list, which is quite unoriginal at this stage.... and the one I feel I'd be backing now is If The Cap Fits... I think he's a clear "best of the British" and should be 2nd fav. He's an each way price if it was the day of the race too, to take on the Fav. Struggling with any strong negatives about Getabird so I would probably back him win only too, or in a double with one of the other horses on the day (Footpad an incredibly obvious choice for that)
Anyway, that was a long way to go to get to the original question, Does anyone have a fancy that isn't in the top 5 in the betting so ....
Better add these others are quoted near the top of the market but aren't realistic IMO:
Espoir D'allen (8/1 - don't think he'd run and 8/1 isn't big enough for me if he did on what he's done)
Maria's Benefit (10/1 - Same as above really, even if she ran 10/1 isn't a good price)
Redicean (12/1 - Staggered he is quoted, wouldn't interest me at double the price here)
Samcro (Would go off fav here, but won't run here... Personally think 5/1 NRNB is a value bet if you want to tie up stake, but only 5% chance he runs here, even if winning the Deloitte)
Apple's Shakira (12/1 NRNB - no way she'd go off that big, but no way she comes here.... Triumph then Mares Novice before this race got considered....)
Of those, Samcro and Apple's Shakira would go off shorter, so can see an angle...
Summerville Boy - Turned the tables on Western Ryder and won the Tolworth, 25/1 best price and 16/1 NRNB (is this race the plan?)
Kalashnikov (Ballymore?) 20s NRNB not big enough on a horse that was beaten fairly by the horse above?
Next Destination (Ballymore?) Couldn't consider without NRNB but 14/1 is fair?
Western Ryder - 33s available, if you forgive the Tolworth perhaps?
Debuchet - (needs to come on loads for that first run?) 33/1 NRNB
Early Doors - possible? held by Mengli Khan though?
Winter Soldier (no runs yet this season)
Whiskey Sour (luckiest G1 winner in ages, must be well held)
Pym (no runs yet this season)
First Flow (won't be going to the festival according to trainer)
To sum up, I can't find anything of strong enough interest below the top 5 of the market to tempt me in to this race. Bar Debuchet potentially
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ComplyOrDie
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Like the views and summary Kev. One you haven't mentioned, apart from when talking about Sharjah, is Real Steel, now there is every chance he steps up in trip, but I see him a live place chance if not, as, although Sharjah looked to be travelling the stronger Real Steel was battling and, IMO, far from beat that day.
Folski
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I saw an article last year, I do believe it was in Timeform regarding the debut bumper performance of Getabird, that it was the 3rd highest debut performance they had ever seen. The only two ahead of him were Faugheen and Annie Power, both Champion Hurdlers. Regarding the stayer tag on Getabird I would say the following, the Supreme is a race won by stayers year in year out, speedy horses do not win it. Champagne Fever outstayed Tent (perennial second in Champion Hurdle) and Jezki (Champion Hurdler). Al Ferof looked well short of pace at the bottom of the hill but stayed on best to beat Spirit Son & Sprinter Sacre. It's not like Vautour won this with his pace either he ran and ran all the way to the line.
Faugheen_Machine
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Agree with most of that Folski but speed horses do win the Supreme. Vautour and Altior being two recent examples.
Great points there. Love the write up.
But you highlightes something quite rightly... Debuchet @33/1 seems a bit outrageous to me... may not have performed as expected on debut but surely would have learned plenty and i think there is quite a good engine there.
To have beaten Claimantakin in the bumper last year and to be that price compared to the 6/1 about for Claim... is worth a few pennis me thinks. Especially if he runs any sort of race in the Deloitte, wouldnt surprise me if he comes out on top against Sharjah. If he does 5/1 2nd fav? If he blows out again hell miss the festival i would think and focus maybe on prizes in Ireland. But at 33/1 i will take the risk
and also backing him at 10/1 vs Sharjah next weekend.
But you highlightes something quite rightly... Debuchet @33/1 seems a bit outrageous to me... may not have performed as expected on debut but surely would have learned plenty and i think there is quite a good engine there.
To have beaten Claimantakin in the bumper last year and to be that price compared to the 6/1 about for Claim... is worth a few pennis me thinks. Especially if he runs any sort of race in the Deloitte, wouldnt surprise me if he comes out on top against Sharjah. If he does 5/1 2nd fav? If he blows out again hell miss the festival i would think and focus maybe on prizes in Ireland. But at 33/1 i will take the risk
and also backing him at 10/1 vs Sharjah next weekend.