Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018

[Istabraq]

The point about Novices is that they are often protected and avoid tough match ups, this isn't the case with Gold Cup horses as the only races they can run in are top class competitive races that are run at a proper gallop and in deep ground this takes alot from a horse.
Novices can be found soft 3/4 runner affairs that are nothing more than schooling sessions so even if run on heavy the excersions there are often less than home work...

 

[Liam301287]

33/1 Coney Island I am very happy at the minute. Bristol De Mai 25 20.

 

[Kevloaf]

GOLD CUP WINNERS are 'good' slow boats... I never understand why being a slow boat is a negative for this race?

I'd argue Sizing John wasn't fast over 2m. He kept getting beaten and people cherry pick comments about Douvan being a super star then the fact he's 'beaten nothing' (Not saying anyone here is saying that, but it's common enough chatter)
I think coneygree was very much 1 gear ...
Don Cossack wasn't 'fast' enough to win the Ryanair...
Lord Windermere is a slow boat.... no problem!
Synchronised was slow too ... won a Welsh national..
Bob's worth was a 3 miler all his career ... slow grinder
Long run 2011 wasn't a speedy horse?
Imperial commander 2010 ? Not sure ...
Kauto Star 2009 ... best horse since Arkle! Exception!
Denman ... wouldn't say he had speed. He just saw out trips powerfully.

Also, looking at placed horses in that time...
Mom Mome GN winner,
The Giant Bolster slow boat
On His Own Absolute boat
Don Poli The ultimate slow boat
Minella Rocco won the 4 miler..... slow boat
Native River won a welsh national.... slow boat


I appeciate some horses gave 'more class' than others but they all need to be 'slow boats' as the absolute minimum! In fact that's what I'd want! Any amount of this "class" for me is a bonus.

Without wanting to offend, of course, I find the knocking of a Gold Cup horse for being a 'slow boat' an over used cliche that gets regurgitated too often.

This isn't aimed at anyone in particular and I expect to get a very mixed response :highly_amused:

 

[Middle_Of_March]

My position one the race is:
Thistlecrack at 5/1 (which has clearly lost)
Bristol De Mai 33s (will go well if it rains)
Blaklion 40/1 - each way



Think Blaklion is the best of those bets by a mile. If he turns up, that’s a nice price. If.

 

[jonthehammer]

I’m on road to respect at 25s. Never seems to travel well over here though but at least I’m on the right side of the bookie.

This is a race i will probably leave now until the day like I did last year with SJ.

 

[archie]

Key trends.

Grade 1 chase winner - 11/11
Aged between 7 and 9 - 10/11
Two to five runs that season - 10/11
Won over at least 3 miles - 10/11
Adjusted RPR of at least 173 - 9/11
Won a graded chase that season - 9/11
Won previous start - 9/11

If Our Duke wins the Irish Gold Cup he will be a qualifier but I'd still have him about the same as Commanche Court who was good enough to place but not win. His current price is about right.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Might bite and blaklion are the only 2 to hit all of those trends that I can see?

 

[ryanh97]

Might bite and blaklion are the only 2 to hit all of those trends that I can see?

I was hoping somebody would do the donkey work haha

 

[Istabraq]

Few other trends:

Previous run over Cheltenham fences a positive
Must have run in previous 3 months
Oppose all horses who have raced within last 31 days
Won 5 or more chases in UK/Ireland
Oppose all horses rated 165 and under
Oppose horses with headgear
Oppose horses who were beaten in their Gold Cup debut, 0-62 since 2000 (doesn't include 2017 stats)
Horses to have run in official heavy ground during season are 0-72 since 2000 (doesn't include 2017 stats)

 

[Viking Flagship]

Great stats Archie/Ista, thanks! Looking at Ista’s additional stats and HF previous summary, Might Bite seems to be the answer! Can it be that easy??!?!

 

[Scooby91]

Don't think anyone's mentioned this but with might bite last year going AWOL and looking at the way back to the paddock.

The gold cup is ran on the other course so he's basically going to be on the complete opposite rail by the best mate enclosure where there's no way out so shouldn't be a problem at all.
Either that or he looks for it and goes all the way over to the right which would be a huge problem. But shouldn't be the case.

 

[Kevloaf]

It is an interesting point considering RSA winners have generally performed well in the Gold Cup.

Might Bite could put in a visually stunning win couldn't he. I watched day 2 back today and he was an incredible distance clear round the bend. Long way from home still but if it all goes right, it could be some spectacle

 

[Kevloaf]

Few other trends:

Previous run over Cheltenham fences a positive
Must have run in previous 3 months
Oppose all horses who have raced within last 31 days
Won 5 or more chases in UK/Ireland
Oppose all horses rated 165 and under
Oppose horses with headgear
Oppose horses who were beaten in their Gold Cup debut, 0-62 since 2000 (doesn't include 2017 stats)
Horses to have run in official heavy ground during season are 0-72 since 2000 (doesn't include 2017 stats)

Im a little surprised you're so keen on Minella Rocco then ?

Beaten on GC debut .... record of 0-62...
1 win in 12 chase starts... No where near the magic 5...
Official rating 163 (last time?) /RPR not high enough either
Won't have won this season
Won't have won last time out (unless poss going IGC?)

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Anyone any strong opinions on whether Blaklion will run?

Seems unlikely if they are prioritising the Grand National, but think he'd be tough to keep out of the frame at a big price if he does run.

 

[Kevloaf]

Anyone any strong opinions on whether Blaklion will run?

Seems unlikely if they are prioritising the Grand National, but think he'd be tough to keep out of the frame at a big price if he does run.

Yes, Blaklion will have a prep for the Grand National in the blue ribband event .... been reported today.

Option of 25s WH (boost to 27s if available)
33s Stan James workout the NR ....

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Anyone any strong opinions on whether Blaklion will run?

Seems unlikely if they are prioritising the Grand National, but think he'd be tough to keep out of the frame at a big price if he does run.

Hope so. He’s my bet at 40s each way

 

[Istabraq]

Im a little surprised you're so keen on Minella Rocco then ?

Beaten on GC debut .... record of 0-62...
1 win in 12 chase starts... No where near the magic 5...
Official rating 163 (last time?) /RPR not high enough either
Won't have won this season
Won't have won last time out (unless poss going IGC?)

Purely price Kev.
I don't think this is a vintage renewal and at 20/1 I made MR value, I really am struggling to come up with more than 3/4 credible candidates....

 

[BigChaang]

My position one the race is:
Thistlecrack at 5/1 (which has clearly lost)
Bristol De Mai 33s (will go well if it rains)
Blaklion 40/1 - each way



Think Blaklion is the best of those bets by a mile. If he turns up, that’s a nice price. If.

N.T.D said last week on sporting life , Blaklion will have one run before the G.National , might as well be in the Gold cup , so you
should get a run for your money M.O.M..

 

[Middle_Of_March]

N.T.D said last week on sporting life , Blaklion will have one run before the G.National , might as well be in the Gold cup , so you
should get a run for your money M.O.M..

Well that’s some good news for a Monday morning. Don’t think it’s a vintage Gold Cup and that 40/1 last week with Hills looked huge. Be great if I got a run for my money as you say.

Funnily enough, I’ll probab have a far bigger bet in the Foxhunters afterwards than the gold cup. First time ever on that front as amateur races aren’t my thing really. However, that Burning Ambition looks a bit of a monster. Heard a word for him a while back too.

If Blaklion is out of contention at the last fence, same with BDM (needs rain), I’ll probably cheer Home you all with Might Bite. Would be good to have another 3m chaser as a superstar. But I thought that Blaklion was an each Way value punt more than the win bet side of it.

 

[doctorwu]

N.T.D said last week on sporting life , Blaklion will have one run before the G.National , might as well be in the Gold cup , so you
should get a run for your money M.O.M..

Wouldn't that quote be a bit of a worry if you've backed Blacklion...........