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Supreme Novices 2018

Was any reason/excuse for Mengli Khan's run out forthcoming after the race? I know he'd worn ear-plugs in previous races but not sure about Leopardstown. I thought that he didn't look the same horse on the day and just wonder if they've been to the well once too often.

No bet for me but I'd be surprised and impressed if MK can give 6lb to Getabird.
 
archie said:
Harrie not one of mine but an SHR club horse. The bumper has been the target since the autumn. I'd say if he doesn't win or go very close on debut he'll likely miss Cheltenham altogether but no harm done if NRNB.

The ones that I'm involved with that may get to the festivals are:
Bunk Off Early
Kemboy
Cadmium
Shanning
Eileen O
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Didn't realise that! :encouragement:
 
archie said:
Was any reason/excuse for Mengli Khan's run out forthcoming after the race? I know he'd worn ear-plugs in previous races but not sure about Leopardstown. I thought that he didn't look the same horse on the day and just wonder if they've been to the well once too often.

No bet for me but I'd be surprised and impressed if MK can give 6lb to Getabird.
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I think they discussed on the FFP that Jack Kennedy had gone out to the right a couple of flights prior to it, and possibly he over compensated asking the horse to go left in to that flight, and the horse did exactly what was asked.... and smashed out the sides.

Hope it hasn't knocked the horses confidence. I'd trust Elliott to have that under control
 
With Ruby Walsh and Danny Mullins sidelined by injury and Paul Townend suspended, the trainer's son Patrick Mullins takes the ride and is excited by the opportunity.



"It's great to get the ride. I'm two from two on him in bumpers and he was impressive on his first run over hurdles," he said.

"This race has a good record of producing Cheltenham winners and it fits in well, timing-wise. If you happen to miss Christmas you can come here and then head on to Cheltenham.

"Getabird won a point-to-point, so he has jumping experience and he might be a horse you'd step up in trip on drier ground in the spring."

Is it possible ND and Getabird both end up in the Ballymore?
 
Innoko said:
With Ruby Walsh and Danny Mullins sidelined by injury and Paul Townend suspended, the trainer's son Patrick Mullins takes the ride and is excited by the opportunity.



"It's great to get the ride. I'm two from two on him in bumpers and he was impressive on his first run over hurdles," he said.

"This race has a good record of producing Cheltenham winners and it fits in well, timing-wise. If you happen to miss Christmas you can come here and then head on to Cheltenham.

"Getabird won a point-to-point, so he has jumping experience and he might be a horse you'd step up in trip on drier ground in the spring."

Is it possible ND and Getabird both end up in the Ballymore?
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I’d be very surprised! Getabird winning impressively tomorrow could help Next Destination AB backers
 
It's Mullins bingo at its finest.

Sharjah will get two entries, Getabird & Next Destination will most likely get three.

I wouldn't be confident of selecting one of them in the right race, nevermind all three:confused:
 
For ease... does anyone want Mengli Khan to win impressively tomorrow?

If that happened he'd be a justified shortest priced Irish runner (and incredibly likely fav)

This side of the sea, we have If The Cap Fits and Claimintakenforgan as the best two...

On form, they'd be the best I could think of, then the only 'puzzle' is picking the Mullins/Walsh horse, which would look like being Sharjah at the moment (with Sayar or Next Destination lively outsiders, assuming MK has put Getabird in his place)

We could all form our opinions based on those 3/4 horses who have the best form... and move on to another race?

:highly_amused: Easy as that, right?
 
I don't particularly like MK but I hope he wins tomorrow. If he was beaten with no excuses then it increases the possibility of Samcro coming here.....I think?! #GigginstownBingo
 
Samcro 16-1 with coral for the supreme !.
 
Kevloaf said:
For ease... does anyone want Mengli Khan to win impressively tomorrow?
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It would certainly help clarify the Irish pecking order!

Like you say I think it's pretty clear now that ITCF's and Claimintakenforgan* are the best of the British and it's hard to see anything else coming to the fore over here bar someone out of the blue or someone really staking their claim in the Betfair Hurdle in 4 weeks time. I struggle to see the likes of Summerville Boy, Western Ryder, Kalshnikov and Slate House who have been involved in the other English Supreme trials. So their looks a pretty clear pecking order this side of the sea.

Like has been mentioned by many I think most of Mullins (like many years to be honest) novices could run over any trip so without a horse like Mengli Khan stamping their authority at the top of the Irish order it's always going to look muddy! I think there could still be a few more big shake ups with the Irish horses in this race in terms of switching targets and pecking order between now and the festival where as the English look very settled now.

In regards to Samcro - a defeat for Mengli Khan would probably increase the chance of that happening but I'd still say it's a long shot he goes Supreme. At the start of the year when Elliott had a stack of potentially high class novices I could see the angle for sending Samcro to the Supreme as most looked like they would need 2m4 plus and he was one of the few that could probably go any trip. It's arguable at this stage of the season though that the only horses in the batch that hold real claims in the 3 novice hurdles are:

Mengli Khan
Samcro
Cracking Smart

with the likes of Poli Roi, Dortmund Park, Minellafordollars, Roaring Bull, Monbeg Worldwide, Blow by Blow not quite up to class and the loss of Lucky Pass meaning he has little strength in depth?** Cracking Smart looks a banker to run in the AB. If MK was to get beat tomorrow without any excuses, I don't think a step up to 2m4 would give him any benefit or extra improvement if they were to send him to the Ballymore instead of Samcro. Now On The Blind Side probably has got the strongest form of the English but if you owned and trained Samcro, on the basis that both trainer and jockeys have said 2m4 looks his ideal trip at this time - I don't think there's too much difference between taking on On The Blind Side vs If The Cap Fits and Claimintakinforgan. Next Destination could still go anywhere but Elliott and Gigginstown will have a very good guage on that horse through Cracking Smart and I doubt CS can get close to Samcro.

I struggle to see why they would switch myself.



*quick sidenote - Henderson in this week's blog when asked who has the strongest Supreme claims:

Claimantakinforgan is our Supreme horse
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Which is probably the final nail in the coffin for any Pym backers (I had written the horse off for the year) I imagine they'll bide their time now and try again next year?

**would be interesting if Mengli Khan was to get beat tomorrow whether you would class Mullins as having more strength in depth for his novice hurdlers over Elliott. At the start of the season I know many (not specifically here) had Elliott way ahead...just a thought...
 
I try to find fault and disagreement in every post you have jono, if only for the interest of healthy debate: but I have nothing in this case. I Just agree on all points.

If you (And anyone) had one bet on the supreme .... who would it be on right now.

I keep having to remind myself that Sharjah can't be showing anything at home ... so I land on If The cap fits. I believe in the trainer as the main 'differential' at the prices
 
My idea of the supreme winner is If The Cap Fits for Harry Fry.

Backed him at 50/1 for the bumper 2017 after seeing him romp home at a small track last year (Taunton I believe it was) but he bypassed the race. Have 16/1 on him to win any race at the festival this year and, at this stage, I think the 7/1 for the supreme is a fair price.
 
Kevloaf said:
I try to find fault and disagreement in every post you have jono, if only for the interest of healthy debate: but I have nothing in this case. I Just agree on all points.

If you (And anyone) had one bet on the supreme .... who would it be on right now.

I keep having to remind myself that Sharjah can't be showing anything at home ... so I land on If The cap fits. I believe in the trainer as the main 'differential' at the prices
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Why do you think Sharjah can’t be showing anything at home Kev?
 
Kevloaf said:
I try to find fault and disagreement in every post you have jono, if only for the interest of healthy debate: but I have nothing in this case. I Just agree on all points.

If you (And anyone) had one bet on the supreme .... who would it be on right now.

I keep having to remind myself that Sharjah can't be showing anything at home ... so I land on If The cap fits. I believe in the trainer as the main 'differential' at the prices
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Harry Fry is a exceptional trainer but I agree that ITCF would be shorter were he to be trained by Hendo or WPM.

ITCF and Sharjah are the two I like at this stage, with a slight preference for ITCF.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Harry Fry is a exceptional trainer but I agree that ITCF would be shorter were he to be trained by Hendo or WPM.

ITCF and Sharjah are the two I like at this stage, with a slight preference for ITCF.
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Was it yourself who added him to the exchange market? I can't remember without looking back who I had the discussion with. But I'm highly glad he was, I diddnt bother as in my own mind the books prices were more than fair. But I'm highly thankful for the 3 figures.
 
I didn't add him Scooby but I must of out maneuvered at some stage as I got 150 matched for £2. My average price works out at 55/1.

Did you pick up any big prices on Sharjah or Mengli Khan?
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I didn't add him Scooby but I must of out maneuvered at some stage as I got 150 matched for £2. My average price works out at 55/1.

Did you pick up any big prices on Sharjah or Mengli Khan?
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Sharjah I diddnt have anything at big prices for the supreme


. Mengli Kahn I'm over 5000 in green of £30

claimantakinforgan £20 between 80.0 and 104.0 laid it all off at 18.0 - 19.0 and backed again with that money at 25/1

Got £25 on if the cap fits at over 100.0 plus any race at 20/1

Obviously have 3 or 4 rubbish ones too

Also think getabird is a must nrnb for the supreme
 
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